The analysis of the market situation includes the study of two interrelated blocks - the general economic situation and the market situation for a particular product.

To analyze the market situation, a study is carried out:

general economic situation in the country, region;

commodity market conditions;

demand;

suggestions;

trends in the development of supply and demand for a given product (service);

development and satisfaction of needs for goods (services).

For analysis general business environment use the results of studying the external environment of the enterprise. Among the most important indicators of the general economic situation, we will name the following:

the volume and dynamics of the gross national product, national income, production in the sectors of the national economy;

investment size;

the value of the average and real wages;

number of employees in national economy and in industries;

indicators of the state of the domestic market (commodity stocks, volume and structure of retail trade, etc.);

dynamics of wholesale and retail prices, inflation indices;

standards of living;

dynamics of foreign economic activity;

stock market indices;

unemployment rate.

Analysis commodity market conditions starts with learning demand in the commodity market, which is carried out in separate market segments:

Consumer sector (population);

industrial consumption;

government consumption;

Export.

The dynamics of cost and natural indicators of solvent realized and unsatisfied demand is considered.

The most difficult for analysis and forecasting is consumer sector due to interaction a large number factors: demographic, socio-economic, climatic, scientific and technical, psychological, national, etc.

The volume of demand depends on the purchasing power of the population, which is determined by the level of real income, the conditions for obtaining loans, the amount of savings, the ratio between the costs of purchasing goods and services. The amount of funds of the population allocated for the purchase of goods is the volume of effective demand.

The market capacity of a particular product, i.e. the volume of goods consumed (purchased) for a certain period of time is defined as the volume of production, taking into account changes in the stocks of goods and the balance of exports and imports. When the demand for a product is not fully satisfied, the phenomenon of unsatisfied effective demand arises, which is not typical for a market economy or manifests itself in the initial stages of a new product entering the market.

Market capacity can also be determined using data on realized demand or the volume of retail turnover of a given product. When conducting an analysis, it must be remembered that the cost indicators of demand include wholesale and retail margins on goods. In this regard, it is recommended to supplement the cost analysis with an analysis of demand in physical terms (pieces, kilograms, liters), taking into account the structure of retail and wholesale prices, as well as their changes.

Volume of production consumption commodity market is determined by the value of consumer purchases. Among the factors can be noted general economic, sectoral, on-farm.

Volume of government consumption determined by the state order for goods. The main factors in the development of this sector of the market are the needs of the state in this product and its financial capabilities.

Export volume product reduces market capacity. Exports are recorded by the state customs services and published in statistical compilations. Among the factors affecting export deliveries, the following should be noted:

competitiveness of goods in the world market;

foreign economic policy of exporting and importing countries;

export opportunities of the exporting country.

Offer Analysis provides for: a quantitative assessment of the proposal in terms of cost and physical indicators; determination of the offer structure in terms of assortment varieties of goods by prices, types, models, quality, design, novelty, etc.; calculation of the share of individual suppliers (manufacturers and sellers) on the goods market, including the share of imports in the total volume of supply; identification of global trends in the development of this market and the possible consequences of such trends for the country's market.

Analysis of supply and demand trends in the studied market serves as a logical continuation of the previous stages of analysis. At this stage, the main task is to identify trends in the dynamics of cost and natural meters of supply and demand, to determine the quantitative and qualitative factors influencing volumetric and structural changes in supply and demand, to compare the identified trends in the country's market with trends in other regions and other countries; determine the stage of the life cycle at which the product is located. The results of this analysis are a reflection of the process of satisfying the needs expressed by the buyers of the goods.

The study of the conjuncture of the commodity market is being completed development analysis and meet the needs, in the process of which the development of a need expressed and satisfied by means of a product, the emergence of new varieties of it, or, conversely, a decrease in a need or its disappearance, is monitored. In addition, the possibility of satisfying the need with the help of another product - a substitute, probably not yet on the market, is being studied.

The tasks of researching needs are of a qualitative nature and are solved mainly through surveys of consumers and specialists - marketers, merchandisers, sociologists. The results of the analysis of the conjuncture of the commodity market, together with the forecast of the general economic situation, become the basis for the development of a market forecast.

MANAGEMENT

The market, as a category of commodity economy, which is a sphere of commodity-money exchange and expresses economic relations between the producer (seller) and consumers (buyers), personifying supply and demand, respectively, is the most important constituent factor of the marketing system (production - marketing - circulation - purchase - consumption).

In general economic terms, the market is understood as a place where both sellers and buyers, all subjects of the sale of certain goods, gather to complete the act of purchase and sale. In marketing, the market is usually understood as the totality of all potential consumers who have a need and are able to satisfy it in the goods of a particular industry.

The phrase “marketing analysis” is also considered to be a synonym for the phrase “market analysis”. Therefore, all those measures taken for marketing analysis are quite appropriate for market analysis.

Marketing research is a type of social technology aimed at discovering effective means market management based on an objective understanding of the situation on it. At present, it is quite simple to collect data from numerous samples and process them on a computer using advanced analysis methods.

The relevance of the topic of the course work lies in the fact that no specific market develops in isolation, but is in close relationship and interdependence with other markets and with the general economic situation in their country and in the world. Therefore, the first thing that firms operating in the market should do is to analyze the general economic situation, namely, to determine what stage the economy is in - crisis, depression, recovery or recovery.

The ability to assess such a situation allows firms to timely form an adequate marketing policy regarding the range and volume of products, the search for new markets or new types of goods.

The objectives of market research are concentrated on two main points: analysis of the situation inside and outside the enterprise, forecast of possible changes and, on this basis, the development of a management strategy; searching for criteria for making management decisions, testing and confirming the hypothesis of the enterprise's behavior in the market.

The task of market research should be not just the structure of the study technology, but the search for methods for solving the problems that are urgent for the enterprise. The prerequisite here is not the technique of conducting, but getting answers to the questions "what is it for?" and "what is the problem?".

Almost any analysis of the market should answer a very simple question: "Can we successfully, i.e. profitably, exchange our products for an adequate amount of money or other products?"

The main purpose of the course work is to study the methodology of market analysis.

This work consists of an introduction, three chapters and a conclusion. The first chapter analyzes the main theoretical aspects of market analysis and market conjuncture: the concept, goals, main directions, goals and objectives, types and methods of market analysis. The second chapter reveals the ways of information support for market analysis, analysis of the main stages of market analysis. The third chapter provides a practical substantiation of the topic on the example of real estate market research.

CHAPTER 1. MEANING AND OBJECTIVES OF MARKET STUDY

1.1. Main directions, goals and objectives of market analysis

Market analysis refers to the collection, collation and analysis of numerical indicators relating to the market and sales. In this way, the sales situation in the past becomes clear and current market trends and problems are identified. The goal is to develop a marketing policy for the coming period.

Market analysis is a tool for preliminary assessment of problems and verification of the position of the enterprise in the market in accordance with its type of business.

Entering the market with a new product is always risky. To obtain real income from the future enterprise, to achieve maximum efficiency, it is necessary to analyze the current market situation. The results of such an analysis will help to accurately form a set of necessary actions, conduct an analysis of competition.

The tasks of this market analysis include:

Market and predictive market research;

Determining the capacity of the market and/or its individual segments;

Studying competitors and their strategies;

Study of the possible reaction of buyers and competitors to the introduction of a new product.

Market analysis begins with preparing a detailed assessment of the existing capacity and potential of the market, or the maximum possible demand of the entire market. The second step of market analysis is forecasting the development of future market volume. This is the basis for deciding on the actual or perceived market share of the enterprise. The indication of the market share provides the basis for sales volume planning and therefore for the production program. Market analysis helps entrepreneurs avoid many mistakes and answer questions that arise during the analysis.

Questions can be divided into the following categories:

Product type, i.e. its physical and chemical characteristics, where it is used, how it is manufactured;

The nature of the market: how big the industry is, what it is, where the bulk of the buyers are concentrated;

The size of the market and its prospects, namely, how many products can be sold annually, how many products have been sold annually in recent years, what factors affect the prospects of this market;

Pricing: how prices have changed for last years what affects prices, what can affect these prices in the future;

Production, i.e. what specifications this product should meet, what should be the packaging of the product, what patent rights must be purchased;

Competition - who is the competitor, where are they located, what is their production capacity, what is their strength or weakness;

Marketing: Which channels sell products, roughly how much out of every dollar working capital advertising, sales promotion, personal (personal) selling and service are spent.

This set of questions mainly concerns producers of goods, but it can be applied, with a little modification, to the service sector, retail or wholesale trade, and so on.

Market research and analysis can also be defined as a set of actions aimed at studying the processes taking place in the sphere of commodity circulation and designed to ensure a balance in the production and consumption of goods. Despite all the variety of market research, all of them can be divided into targeted and current, due to the regularity of their conduct.

Case studies - a comprehensive analysis of a market problem that is of paramount importance for ensuring effective entrepreneurial activity. They, as a rule, are strictly individual and focused on solving specific problems of the company. To carry out such research, a special working group is created, which, along with the employees of the company, also includes invited experts. The composition of such groups depends on the nature and extent of the problem being solved.

In contrast to targeted ongoing research, most firms conduct fairly regularly. The results of such studies are used in operational work and their main purpose is to determine the current situation and take the necessary management decisions to balance supply and demand.

Although the need for market research is generally recognized, the depth of research and its purpose depend on the specifics of the company's work and, above all, are determined by those specific tasks who stand in front of her. In the process of complex market research, the directions of market research are determined.

Especially relevant for each firm is market research when it enters this market with a new product, as well as in the case when the company enters a new market with its product. At the same time, it should be borne in mind that if a certain market strategy is chosen as a new direction of the company's activity, then at each phase of the development of production and sales, needs research should be carried out, taking into account their priority.

A typical market analysis process involves 4 steps:

Determining the type of data required;

Search for this data;

Data analysis;

Implementation of activities that allow using this data for the benefit of the enterprise.

1.2 Types and methods of market analysis

There are three types of market analysis:

1. Analysis of the market as a whole and the position of the enterprise on it, market scale, market share, analysis of consumer claims, etc.

The changes identified during the analysis are presented and systematized in the following ways.

a) Analytical tables of changes: several tables of changes in market situations are created with a choice of combinations of factors and indicators. In a concise form, it describes: the consumer and his needs, products sold, competitors, trends in the sale of products on the market as a whole.

b) Mapping positioning: in accordance with the objectives, the relevant characteristics are selected for postponing them along the vertical and horizontal axes, and the place of the enterprise in the market for each product group is determined.

2. Analysis by calculating actual sales figures and using time series (trends, seasonality, etc.)

When actual sales figures are not growing as they should in a rapidly changing marketing environment, it is necessary to look at them from a new perspective. Possible criteria could be:

Analysis of sales dynamics in general over the past few years;

Analysis of the dynamics of individual elements (by areas: by types of products, by groups of consumers, including final ones, by regions, by distribution channels);

Analysis with consideration of the relationship of causal factors (a hypothesis is built that there is a causal relationship between the actual indicators and a specific factor, after which a practical assessment of the hypotheses takes place, not only subject factors are considered, but also abstract phenomena, and factors such as "susceptibility" or "value system";

Analysis of the degree of contribution by spheres and within spheres or identification of those points that should be especially paid attention to when managing sales to the enterprise.

Time series analysis is essentially a method in which a comparative analysis of data over a long period of time and the identification of a trend in changes in these indicators over time takes place. A trend is understood as a trend in the development of a phenomenon over time, which is determined by analyzing the data of a series of dynamics to characterize changes in the phenomenon over time. There are 3 main types of trend: long-term (long-term fluctuations), seasonal (seasonal fluctuations) and periodic ( periodic fluctuations). For forecasting and creating sales plans, the long-term and seasonal trend is most often used. The following typical long-term trend analysis methods are used: criteria method, two average method, moving average method, least squares method and correlation analysis.

3. Analysis using hypotheses expressed by responsible employees of the enterprise and experts.

When analyzing the market, it makes no sense to use all the methods in a row and indiscriminately. It is necessary to clearly define the goals of the analysis, select those that will be most effective, and select the data necessary for them.

When analyzing the market as a whole, it should be understood that market trends cannot be accurately determined by a single study. The main indicators should be monitored constantly.

At the same time, if we are talking about consumer products, then the study should take place in relation to changes in the demographic structure, geographical aspects, seasonal consumption conditions, the trading situation in the region, socio-economic factors, consumer behavior in relation to purchases, lifestyle, imports.

If these are industrial products, then it is necessary to take into account raw materials, technological developments, economic factors, etc. It must be remembered that an accurate assessment of the situation on the market is achieved not only by analyzing the position and actual indicators of the enterprise itself, but also by collecting and analyzing information obtained from other sources, including what was seen with one's own eyes.

Therefore, it is necessary in the course of carrying out their business activities and communicating with consumers to study market trends and consumer demands, and translate the results of the study into concrete actions.

CHAPTER 2. MAIN STAGES OF MARKET ANALYSIS

2.1 Assessment of market conditions

The first principle of marketing: "market research", or marketing research. From the definition, it is obvious that "marketing research" includes two components: "conjuncture" and "proper marketing research", which are also called "comprehensive market analysis".

Market conditions - the current economic situation, including the relationship between supply and demand, price movements and inventory, portfolio of orders by industry and other economic indicators. In other words, market conditions are a specific situation that has developed in the market at the moment or a limited period of time, as well as a set of conditions that determine this situation.

Distinctive features of market conditions are: dynamism; proportionality; variability; cyclicity. Consequently, market analysis should also reflect these four characteristics. Accordingly, four conceptual tasks of market analysis are put forward:

1) analysis of dynamic patterns, trends;

2) proportional development;

3) analysis of market stability, its volatility both in statics and in dynamics;

4) analysis of market development repeatability, selection of cycles.

An integrated approach to the study of market conditions involves: the use of various, complementary sources of information; a combination of a retrospective analysis with a forecast of indicators characterizing the market situation; application of a combination of different methods of analysis and forecasting.

The study of market conditions is based on the analysis of indicators characterizing the production and supply of goods of this group, the volume and structure of retail sales, inventory in the warehouses of the enterprise, in wholesale and retail trade.

When studying the market situation, the task is not only to determine the state of the market at one time or another, but also to predict the probable nature of its further development, at least for one or two quarters, but not more than for a year and a half. The results of the analysis of predicted indicators of market conditions in combination with reporting and planned data make it possible to develop measures in advance aimed at developing positive processes, eliminating existing and preventing possible imbalances.

Tasks in the study of market conditions:

1. In a certain period of time, select specific and latest information from information sources throughout the market, namely: identify all competitors, study the range of products, study the pricing policy.

4. To identify the activity of interaction of these factors in the near future to develop a forecast.

The results of studying the market conditions are intended for making operational decisions on managing the production and marketing of goods.

The main tasks of market research of the commodity market.

collection and processing of market information;

· integral and differential assessments of the state of the market, typology of the market situation;

Characteristics of the scale (volume) of the market;

· identification, analysis and forecasting of market development trends and its dynamic stability;

· assessment and analysis of regional differences in the market;

assessment and analysis of business activity;

assessment of commercial (market) risk;

Characteristics of the degree of monopolization and intensity of competition.

The tasks set are focused on a comprehensive, interconnected description of the state of the market as a whole and in the context of its individual elements and components.

There are two stages or levels of implementation of these tasks. At the first, evaluative stage, an analysis of the market situation is carried out, which should characterize the scale and typology of the market, its main proportions, the vector and rate of change in the main parameters, and the level of development sustainability. The second, higher level of analysis aims to identify cause-and-effect relationships, conditions that determine the market situation, and on this basis, forecasting market conditions, conclusions about the prospects for market development, from the standpoint of marketing firms.

2.2 Determination of market size

analysis market conjuncture real estate

Under the capacity of the commodity market is understood the possible volume of sales of goods (specific products of the enterprise) at a given level and the ratio of different prices. Market capacity and trends in its change are important factors that manufacturers must consider when entering the relevant market. It makes no sense to enter the studied market if its capacity is small or will become so in the near future.

Determination of market capacity is the main task of market research. Two levels of market capacity should be distinguished: potential and real. The real capacity of the market is the first level. Market capacity is formed under the influence of many factors, each of which, in certain situations, can both stimulate the market and restrain its development, limiting its capacity. The whole set of factors can be divided into two groups: general and specific.

Common are the socio-economic factors that determine the market capacity of any product: the volume and structure of the product offer, including by manufacturing enterprises; range and quality of manufactured products; the size of imports for a given product or group; the achieved standard of living and needs of the population; the purchasing power of the population, the level and ratio of prices for goods; population; its social and sex and age composition; degree of market saturation; state of the sales, trade and service network.

At present, the state of the market is significantly influenced by such processes as the isolation of the territory and the introduction of new monetary units, the formation of commercial structures, inflation, the introduction of new customs restrictions, etc. Specific factors determine the development of markets for individual goods, and each market may have factors characteristic only of it. In this case, a specific factor in terms of the degree of influence may be decisive for the formation and development of supply and demand for a particular product. The result of the work to determine the market capacity should be a comprehensive analytical review of the state of the market and the factors that form it, as well as a multivariate forecast for the development of the commodity market, taking into account the trends in changes in the internal and external factors affecting it.

2.3. Market segmentation analysis

Market segmentation is the division of buyers into certain homogeneous groups, each of which may require separate products and/or marketing mixes. Market segmentation is an in-depth study of market opportunities, it implies the need for dividing markets depending on groups of buyers and consumer properties of goods, which in a broad sense defines the concept of market segmentation.

It is quite understandable and natural desire of each manufacturer to create and sell products that can satisfy the maximum number of customers. But in real life, this is hardly possible, since consumers have different attitudes towards the same product, use it differently, and, most importantly, purchase it for different reasons.

Therefore, it seems appropriate to divide the market into separate segments in accordance with the motivation of consumers and their specific features. The process of market segmentation is the breakdown of buyers or a market into groups of people with similar needs for a particular product or service, sufficient resources, and willingness and ability to buy.

Segmentation gives the company the opportunity, instead of a ruinous struggle with competitors, to serve this or that segment of the market more efficiently.

Segmentation of the industrial goods market along with common features with the segmentation of the market for consumer goods has certain differences. The common thing is that the same factors are used as segmentation criteria - geographical, demographic, behavioral and psychographic. The differences lie in the fact that the priority criteria for segmenting the market for industrial goods are such factors as the size of consumer enterprises, the structure of distribution channels, organizational forms of trade, equipment and technology for making purchases.

The analysis of segmentation methods allows the company to choose the optimal segmentation criteria and divide the relevant market according to them. To select a target segment, you should evaluate the potential benefit from using each of the segments. There are three alternative approaches to the definition and satisfaction of the selected segment: mass (or undifferentiated) marketing, targeted (concentrated) marketing, differentiated (multiple segmentation) marketing.

2.4. Studying competitors and their strategies

Detailed knowledge of the buyer is an important but not sufficient factor for success, since there are competitors in the market who may be more adequate to the situation and, therefore, have competitive advantages. That's why within complex analysis market analyze the activities of competitors.

The main task of competitor research is to obtain the necessary data to provide a competitive advantage in the market, as well as to find opportunities to compete with possible competitors. For this purpose, the strengths and weaknesses of competitors are analyzed, the market share they occupy, the reaction of consumers to competitors' marketing tools (improvement of goods, price changes, trademarks, behavior of advertising companies, service development) are studied.

Along with this, the material, financial, labor potential of competitors, the organization of business management are being studied. The result of such research is the choice of ways and opportunities to achieve the most advantageous position in the market relative to competitors (leadership, following the leader, avoiding competition), determining active and passive strategies for providing them with a price advantage or advantage due to the quality of the goods offered.

Competitors are studied, as a rule, in the following sequence:

a) identification and classification of competitors, i.e. compiling a data bank about competitors. Identification of competitors is carried out within the framework of the general system for collecting and processing information operating in the firm (enterprise). Important sources of information about competitors are their own reports, prospectuses, catalogs, advertisements, exhibitions and fairs. In addition to published data, competitor research can be based on information received from consumers, as well as from intermediaries who sell goods of various firms and who are well aware of the comparative reaction of buyers.

b) Identifying the strengths and weaknesses of competitors

Identification of the strengths and weaknesses of competitors' activities is the result of studying the features of the position of the company in comparison with its rivals in the market. This work uses the following principles:

Assessment of the advantages and disadvantages of competitors' activities is not absolute, but relative to a particular company;

Identification of strengths and weaknesses from the standpoint of consumers;

Conducting research by special groups, which include specialists from various departments of the company.

2.5 Information support for market analysis

The following quantitative indicators are considered as necessary information for market analysis: market potential, market volume, market saturation level, market elasticity, market growth rates, shares of main competitors, stability, etc. The following indicators are qualitative market indicators: the structure of customer needs, motives purchases, type of purchase process, ways of obtaining information by the consumer, prevailing preferences, etc.

In addition to considering the quantitative and qualitative characteristics of consumers, it is necessary to have data on existing suppliers, business partners, trade and intermediaries, also included in the firm's microenvironment. Information about these market entities allows you to adjust the marketing policy and plan activities

Systematic collection, processing and analysis of information about the state of the market is one of the main requirements for market research. An information system is understood as a set of information sources that characterizes the state of commodity markets for a certain period and makes it possible to forecast their development. The main sources of information about the market include: government statistics; sectoral accounting and statistics; information coming from the wholesaler and retail; special survey data.

The concept of a marketing information system can be represented as a diagram (Fig. 1).

In the left box, one of the components of the marketing environment that is constantly monitored is the target markets. Information is collected and analyzed using four auxiliary systems, which together make up the marketing information system: internal reporting systems, external current marketing information collection systems, marketing research systems and marketing information analysis systems.

The flow of information coming to the marketing managers helps them to analyze, plan, implement and control the execution of marketing activities. The reverse flow towards the market consists of decisions made by managers and other communications.

Rice. 1. Marketing information system for market analysis

Let us consider in more detail all four auxiliary systems that make up the marketing information system.

1. Internal sources of marketing information. These include information obtained by management within the firm. The basis for obtaining this kind of information is the feedback established between the head of the company and the staff. To do this, many companies use:

· a system of internal reporting, which can be expressed in monthly, weekly and even daily reports prepared by specialists to monitor their activities by management. Modern electronic technology greatly facilitates the creation of such an internal system. Managers of many large corporations can at any moment get information about current sales or deliveries from any distributor, although this network is sometimes very extensive, distributors are located in different places, or in different cities, countries.

personal contacts, conversations of the head of the company with specialists. Usually these contacts take place in the director's office or directly in production (in production units). These can be group contacts (meetings, meetings) or personal conversations with employees.

methods of coordinating work between different divisions (departments). These methods imply the presence of close ties between individual structural groups of the enterprise. Each department, for example, the sales department, should not be engaged only in a specific one business, without being aware of the affairs of other departments, divisions of the company. All work must be connected. So it will be easier to make a decision, to monitor and analyze the activities of the enterprise, to establish production.

2. External sources of marketing information. External sources of information include books, newspapers, magazines, radio and television. External current information can also be obtained in the process of contacts, conversations with customers, suppliers, consumers and other persons who are not employees of the company. For external company information:

· organize a special department to collect current marketing information. Employees of such a department look through the most important publications in search of current news, follow updates in all media, and create a news archive.

Train employees to be the eyes and ears of the firm. Sellers, for example, have very vantage point to obtain external information about customers, their tastes, needs, satisfaction or dissatisfaction with the goods or services of the company.

encourage their agents, merchants to collect necessary information. Information about competitors can be obtained: when buying goods from them, having access to reports and documents, following their advertising, reading information about them in newspapers, talking with their customers, employees, sales agents.

Buy external information from special information providers. It could be all sorts of email systems, weekly reviews, and so on.

3. System of marketing researches. The marketing research process includes a number of operations:

1) problem definition;

2) analysis of secondary information;

3) obtaining primary information;

6) use of results.

All actions are performed in a specific order. For example, secondary information is not examined until the firm has identified a problem or issue that needs to be investigated, and primary information is not collected until secondary information has been thoroughly examined. Primary data is not always needed, in many cases firms are able to solve their problems without them. Only if secondary information proves insufficient, the firm should collect primary data.

4. Analysis of the collected information. The information obtained during the study is subjected to a comprehensive analysis. For such an analysis, statistical methods and mathematical models based on modern computer technology are used.

2.6 Ways and means of collecting and analyzing information

Gathering information is the most important stage of market research. There is no single source of information that would contain all the information about the processes under study. The study uses various types of information obtained from various sources. Distinguish information: general, commercial, special.

General information includes data characterizing the market situation as a whole, in conjunction with the development of an industry or a given production. The sources of its receipt are the data of state and industry statistics, official forms of accounting and reporting.

Commercial information is data extracted from the business documentation of the enterprise, on the marketing of manufactured products and received from partners in the course of information exchange. These include: applications and orders trade organizations; materials of market research services of enterprises, organizations and trade institutions (materials on the movement of goods in wholesale and retail organizations, market reviews, proposals for the current replacement of the assortment, etc.).

Special information represents data obtained as a result of special market research activities (surveys of the population, buyers, trade and industry specialists, experts; sales exhibitions, market meetings), as well as materials from research organizations. Special information is of particular value because it contains information that cannot be obtained in any other way.

To ensure the observation of the commodity market or the sales market, enterprises (associations) can create their own sources of information in the form of: stores - strong points (base); networks of resellers; specialized consumer panels.

Prior to the direct collection of primary data, it is necessary to develop a structure or plan for the study.

The structure of the study includes answers to the following questions:

Who or what should be researched?

The researcher must determine what will be the object of his attention.

What information should be collected?

The types and volumes of information needed are determined by how the company has formulated the objectives. Preliminary studies require less information than final studies.

Who collects the data?

What data collection methods should be used?

There are four main methods of collecting primary data: survey, observation, experiment and simulation.

How much will the study cost?

The costs of research should be weighed against the benefits that will result.

How will the data be collected?

Personnel required for data collection should be identified, including their capabilities, qualifications and training.

How long will the data collection period be?

The researcher must determine how much time he will spend on the study, otherwise it may be delayed. This can lead to inconsistent responses and a breach of privacy.

When and where should information be collected?

The day and time of collection of information should be determined. In addition, it is necessary to establish the location of the study. The researcher must balance urgency and convenience with the desire to study hard-to-reach individuals at the right time.

CHAPTER 3. REAL ESTATE MARKET RESEARCH

3.1 Statement of tasks and methods of marketing research

Market research is often used for orientation. Using the results of marketing research, you can assess the size of the market, determine the segment, potential consumers and, based on this information, set goals for expanding or reducing the enterprise, and form a sales plan.

The construction of real estate in the territory of the republic is the most extensive area of ​​entrepreneurial activity and the sphere of application of labor, which has received new impulses for its development, significantly expanding the "field and rules of the game" in the economy. Many new enterprising people joined it, in a number of cases they radically changed their profession and life orientations.

Saturation process consumer market republics with real estate objects and increasing competition require from those who have recently joined this business and want to stay in it for a long time, deep and comprehensive knowledge of its fundamentals in the context of various aspects of marketing activities.

Currently, the real estate market is in constant development: the situation on the market is monitored, activities are promptly corrected. All this avoids losses and maintains the profitability of construction organizations at the proper level.

In today's competitive market, developers of the republic pay special attention to improving the quality of construction, the design of buildings and improving the system for selling real estate.

Problem definition:

As stated above, the key to successful market research is a clear statement of the problem. It is necessary to: identify symptoms, state possible causes or problems, identify a list of alternative actions.

In this regard, there is a need to identify problems, namely:

Obtaining basic knowledge about objects and the real estate market;

clarification of the symptoms of the problem;

Identification of the causes of problems;

identifying actions to mitigate the problem;

definition of expected consequences;

evaluation of available information.

Despite the active activity of developers, due to the current economic situation in the country, there are certain problems in selling objects on the market. For this reason, the author conducted a marketing study, the purpose of which was to solve the problem faced by developers - attracting real estate buyers, improving marketing policies and increasing market share in general.

Definition of research objectives:

The goals of MI stem from the identified problems, the achievement of these goals allows you to obtain the information necessary to solve these problems.

The objectives of this study are to study the real estate market, its development trends, to identify the level of the population's need for the acquisition of real estate. This paper describes some aspects of the marketing situation. Accordingly, the nature of the goals determines the choice of the type of research - descriptive.

Definition of research methods:

In this paper, one of the widely known methods of conducting marketing research is used - a consumer survey. This method can be called sociological. It lies in the fact that it is focused on mass respondents of various qualifications and competencies. The study proceeds in one direction - it is necessary to determine the attitude of industry customers to the range of real estate provided.

The main tool for the implementation of observation and survey methods in this work is a questionnaire. With the help of this questionnaire, primary information will be received, necessary to identify problems in the field of real estate, shortcomings in the organization of implementation, coverage of the problem under study. The type of questions is closed. Variants of questions used in the study - dichotomous and multivariate, the use of which should intensify the activity of respondents in filling out questionnaires, facilitate the process of entering the data received.

The collection of primary information consists in a survey of respondents of various qualifications and competences. The number of respondents - 50 people.

3.2. Carrying out marketing research and analyzing the data obtained

Primary data was collected within a few days. The approach to data collection is independent. Respondents answered almost all questions of the questionnaires. To achieve the goals, the study of the behavior and attitudes of the inhabitants of the republic was directed, the level of the population's need for real estate objects was revealed, and information on high-quality professional objects was obtained. 50 people were interviewed.

As a result of generalizing the data obtained, it was possible to find out that the majority of residents would like to purchase housing in the primary market - 30 people out of 50 respondents, 5 people - in the secondary market, and 15 people stated that they do not need to improve their living conditions (Figure 2).

Figure 2 - Distribution of answers to question No. 1 of the questionnaire

To question No. 2, where the question was raised about the height of prices in the primary market, the answers were divided as follows: low - 15 people, 15 respondents noted that prices are high, acceptable - 20 people (Figure 3).

Figure 3 - Distribution of answers to question No. 2 of the questionnaire

Question No. 3 of the questionnaire asked whether it is worth considering the following parameters when handing over the primary housing: installation of entrance metal interior doors, installation of sanitary ware, installation of an electric stove, telephone installation, wallpapering, painting of pipelines and heating appliances. The answers were distributed as follows: 35% noted that it is necessary to install sanitary ware, 24% - installation of an electric stove, 17% - installation of telephones, 12% - installation of doors, 7% - painting, 5% - wallpapering, 0% - other (Figure 4) .

Figure 4 - Distribution of answers to question No. 3 of the questionnaire

Answers to question No. 4 of the questionnaire on the correspondence between the price and quality of newly built housing gave the following results: 78% confirmed the compliance of price and quality parameters, 22% of respondents indicated that the price does not correspond to the quality of newly built housing (Figure 5).

Figure 5 - Distribution of answers to question No. 4 of the questionnaire

Next (question number 5) was asked about prices in the secondary real estate market. It was possible to find out that the majority of respondents living in the Republic of Khakassia consider prices high - this was noted by 46 respondents, 4 people consider them acceptable, 1 person considers them low (Figure 6).

Figure 6 - Distribution of answers to question No. 5 of the questionnaire

Is the price of real estate on the secondary market justified? This was question number 6 of the survey questionnaire. "Yes" - answered 11 people, "no" - 39 people (Figure 7).

Figure 7 - Distribution of answers to question No. 6 of the questionnaire

To the question about the type of real estate that is in the greatest demand in Khakassia, the following answers were received: 32 respondents noted the most demanded comfortable housing, 18 - a private house

(Figure 8).

Figure 8 - Distribution of answers to question No. 7 of the questionnaire

The following answers were received to question No. 8 of the questionnaire: 27 people answered positively about the construction of high-rise buildings, 23 people answered positively about the construction of low-rise housing (Figure 9).

Figure 9 - Distribution of answers to question No. 8 of the questionnaire

Question No. 9 of the questionnaire was the question of the sore point - the increase in housing and communal services tariffs and their influence on the choice of the type of real estate. It was possible to find out that the majority of the respondents believe that it affects - there were 30 of them, 15 people believe that it does not affect, 5 people answered that they find it difficult to answer the question asked (Figure 10).

Figure 10 - Distribution of answers to question No. 9 of the questionnaire

Does the economic situation in the country affect the degree of acquisition of real estate? “Yes, of course,” 47 people answered, “no, it doesn’t affect” - 13 people. It is noteworthy that there were no “difficulty” answers to this question (Figure 11).

Figure 11 - Distribution of answers to question No. 10 of the questionnaire

In terms of the acceptability of the cost per square meter of housing in Khakassia, it was found out that the majority of respondents (35 people) wanted to have fairly low housing prices - 20-25 thousand rubles per square meter, the cost of 26-30 thousand rubles. noted by 6 people, the parameter is from 41 to 50 thousand rubles. not a single respondent noted, and only 2 people believe that the cost should be higher than 50 thousand rubles. (Figure 12).

Figure 12 - Distribution of answers to question No. 11 of the questionnaire

The last questions were questions of a classification nature, which included questions about age, gender, income level. Summing up the results of the study, it was possible to find out that the majority of clients are self-sufficient citizens, 48% of the respondents are men, the rest of the respondents are women, the age limit is different: the majority of respondents are from 25 to 55 years old, i.e. working population. With regard to solvency, we can say that the bulk are solvent (the average income per family member is from 10,000 to 15,000 rubles).

3.3. Conclusions from the results of the study

Thus, the study of the real estate market of the republic, conducted by polling the inhabitants of the region, made it possible to draw the following conclusions.

To the question of whether it is worth considering the following parameters during the delivery of primary housing: installation of entrance metal interior doors, installation of sanitary ware, installation of an electric stove, installation of telephones, wallpapering, painting of pipelines and heating appliances, the answers were distributed unevenly. The majority agrees with the installation and installation of household and sanitary ware items. For sure, this is due to the fact that the acquisition of real estate is associated with the financial costs of buyers, mainly, the acquisition takes place with funds borrowed from the bank. Usually, borrowed funds are given for the acquired object, and, as a rule, there are no funds left for the improvement of a residential object.

Compliance with the price and quality of newly built housing gave the following results: 78% confirmed the conformity of price and quality parameters, 22% of respondents indicated that the price does not match the quality of newly built housing. Developers have something to strive for - it is necessary to improve the quality of built housing.

The study showed that the majority of respondents living in the republic consider real estate prices to be high - this was noted by 46 respondents out of 50 people. In addition, the price of real estate in the secondary market is not justified - this is the opinion of the majority of respondents.

Well-appointed housing is in great demand - 32 respondents answered this way. In addition, the majority of respondents believe that it is necessary to build multi-storey buildings.

It was possible to find out that the increase in housing and communal services tariffs affects the choice of the type of real estate - this was confirmed by 30 people out of 50 respondents. In addition, 47 people confirmed that the economic situation in the country affects the degree of real estate acquisition. This is a topical issue. The reason is the loss of work due to reductions in enterprises, as a result of which, a decrease in the activity of acquiring real estate. In terms of the acceptability of the cost per square meter of housing, it was found that the majority of respondents would like to see fairly low housing prices - 20-25 thousand rubles per square meter, and only 2 people believe that the cost should be higher than 50 thousand rubles.

Summing up the results of the study, it was possible to find out that the majority of clients are self-sufficient citizens, 48% of the respondents are men, the rest of the respondents are women, the age limit is different: the majority of respondents are from 25 to 55 years old, i.e. working population. With regard to solvency, we can say that the bulk are solvent - the average income per family member per month is from 10,000 to 15,000 rubles. Thus, the implementation of the goals and objectives set in the marketing research plan confirmed the main hypothesis: the real estate market of the republic is developed, real estate in the primary market still has a strong position, secondary housing is being purchased, although prices are above the minimum, according to the majority of respondents. The choice of consumers in terms of acquiring real estate is influenced by how general state real estate market conditions, as well as the general economic condition of the country and the republic, the degree of balance between supply and demand, trends in their development, the level of saturation with real estate objects, pricing policy.

CONCLUSION

Having studied the real estate market, it can be stated with certainty that he is one of the factors characterizing the degree of perfection of the modern economy. Success in the market for the provision of real estate, achievements in marketing is largely determined by the quality of housing provided.

Undoubtedly, specialized developers and real estate firms engaged in the purchase and sale of real estate must monitor changes in the attitude of customers towards real estate and make adjustments to the quality of real estate. From the broadest point of view, customer service in the real estate market can be a tool that defines and satisfies the highest need of customers. Instead of a source of costs, it can turn into a source of profit.

Marketing research is an integral part of the marketing activities of a modern company. They allow you to strengthen the market position of the company by adapting its production to the preferences of consumers. This means that developers, like all companies that are successful in the region's market, need to conduct market research from time to time by developing a marketing research design - a project of their enterprise and research. At the same time, it is necessary to take into account the availability of the results of similar studies, the significance of the results, their compliance with the costs of the study, and time constraints.

Based on the results of the study, the following main conclusions can be drawn:

· there is a supply on the real estate market, both in the primary and in the secondary, there is also a demand for housing;

· conformity of the price and quality of buildings, for the most part, coincides;

· the economic situation directly affects the demand in the real estate market;

· Housing and communal services tariffs affect the degree of acquisition of real estate and the type of housing chosen when buying.

· defined preferences for improving the living conditions of citizens by acquiring real estate in the primary/secondary markets;

clarified the price parameters of housing;

· Determined the need in the primary market to provide for the installation of doors, installation, etc.;

· clarified the correspondence between the price and the quality of the purchased housing in the primary market;

· it is determined whether the prices for secondary housing are justified;

clarified preferences when choosing the type of real estate;

· Determined the need for the construction of multi-storey housing construction in the region;

· Demand for the construction of low-rise housing in the region;

· clarified the impact of tariff increases on the choice of buyers of the type of property;

· an assessment of the impact on the acquisition of real estate of the economic situation;

· the cost of housing per 1 square meter acceptable for the region was revealed;

· the demographic profile of buyers is defined.

Thus, it should be concluded that market research is absolutely necessary at any time and in any economic situation. In the conditions of competitive struggle, which is the basis of the entire modern economy, only enterprises in the real estate market that are guided by the needs and preferences of consumers, and not by their own, can survive. After all, in the end, it is the preferences of consumers that determine the "survivability" of the company, and even more so its prosperity. It is necessary to focus on improving the quality of built housing, maintaining the ratio of price and quality of real estate, thereby meeting the needs of the consumer.

BIBLIOGRAPHY

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2. Anurin V., Marketing. - S-P .:, Peter, 2004.

3. Golubkov E.P., Golubkova E.N., Sekerin V.D. Marketing: choosing the best solution. - M.: Economics, - 2003.

4. Zavyalov P.S. Marketing in schemes, drawings, tables: Textbook. M.: INFRA-M, 2003.

5. Krylova G.D., Marketing, - M.: Unity, - 2004.

6. Kotler F. Marketing management. Tutorial. - M.: - 2001.

7. Krylov I.V. Marketing communications as a social institution. - M.: Eksmo, - 2004.

8. Krylov I.V. Marketing communications as a social institution. - M.: Eksmo, - 2004.

9. Marketing in industries and fields of activity. Tutorial. - M.: Marketing. Bookshop center. - 2005.

10. Marketing Principles and technology of marketing in a free market system. Textbook / Ed. Eriashvili N. D. - M.: UNITI, 2005.

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12. Mani I.B. System of marketing communications. - M.: Marketing. - 2003.

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Vconducting

market conditions cyclicality

The current state of the market is characterized by an increase in the importance and value of information. The growth rate of informatization of society is increasing, an increasing amount of information is becoming available to the consumer. Under these conditions, the importance of marketing is growing, and the question of the effectiveness of using the potential of marketing analysis becomes the most relevant.

Russia's transition to new system economic relations has radically changed the whole structure of ideas about the role of marketing. First of all, the development of the activities of domestic enterprises requires expanding the range of ideas in the marketing system for successful business and creating a worthy image of Russian companies in domestic and international markets. There is a need to study the methods of conducting marketing analysis in connection with the increase in the pace of development of existing and the emergence of new enterprises.

The purpose of the study is to study the organizational and methodological provisions for conducting market analysis in the marketing system.

In accordance with the goal set, the following tasks are solved in the work:

Determine the essence of market analysis;

Describe the principles and methods;

Explore the theoretical and methodological foundations of marketing analysis.

The course work consists of an introduction, a theoretical part, which in turn is divided into 2 chapters, a practical part, a conclusion, a list of references and applications.

TOopportunisticanalysismarket. Essenceopportunisticanalysis

Marketing research combines two types of analysis. Analysis can be operational, covering a relatively short period of time. He solves urgent, urgent problems. Such an analysis is opportunistic in nature. The strategic (fundamental) analysis is based on accurate quantitative estimates obtained as a result of statistical calculations.

The system of indicators for analyzing the market situation is divided into three groups:

demand indicators;

offer indicators;

price indicators.

Ш Introduction. This section provides a brief comprehensive description of the market situation for the relevant period.

Ш Demand and consumption of goods. This section analyzes the dynamics and causes of changes in demand in general and in the distribution by main product groups and territories; reflects the dynamics of demand for new products; goods of various manufacturers are analyzed in terms of quality and price; the movement of stocks of finished products from manufacturers and in the commodity distribution network is studied

SH Proposal. This section presents the results of the analysis of the dynamics of supply in general and in the distribution by main product groups and manufacturers; the main reasons for the change in the volume of supply are revealed, an analysis is made of the dynamics of the loading of production capacity, the presence of its reserve; the plans of leading companies and the state regarding the production of certain types of products are considered.

W Prices. The section is devoted to the consideration of the dynamics of retail and wholesale prices. In this section, the relationship between supply and demand for a product is noted; the policy of companies in the field of prices and the policy of the state for their regulation are covered.

Ш Forecast of the development of conjuncture. This section includes consumption, production and price forecasts. The consumption forecast is developed taking into account the prospects for the development of industries, probable trends in the movement of consumer demand, the expected size of consumption, taking into account the influence of market-forming factors.

The analysis of the market situation includes the study of two interrelated blocks - the general economic situation and the market situation for a particular product.

To analyze the general economic situation, the results of studying the external environment of the enterprise are used. Among the most important indicators of the general economic situation, we will name the following:

§ the volume and dynamics of the gross national product, national income, production in the sectors of the national economy;

§ investment size;

§ the value of the average and real wages;

§ the number of people employed in the national economy and industries;

§ indicators of the state of the domestic market (commodity stocks, volume and structure of retail trade, etc.);

§ dynamics of wholesale and retail prices, inflation indices;

§ standards of living;

§ dynamics of foreign economic activity;

§ stock market indices;

§ unemployment rate.

The analysis of the commodity market situation begins with a study of the demand in the commodity market, which is carried out for individual market segments:

l consumer sector (population);

l production consumption;

l state consumption;

and export.

Market analysis allows you to comprehensively analyze the market situation and give comprehensive description market conditions. It turns out how favorable the conjuncture is for the implementation of the set goals. An important component of market analysis is the system of market indicators. A market indicator is a qualitative or quantitative indicator that, alone or in combination with other indicators, reflects or measures the market situation.

Market indicators include:

Ш involvement of the mass of commodities in the market sphere;

Ш commodity circulation;

Ш commodity stocks (in value terms or in days of turnover);

Ш prices (in monetary units or in relation to income);

Ш profit (or profitability).

One of the areas of market analysis is the method of constructing a system of business activity indices. These include indicators of market dynamics: growth rates of production (or supply) of goods, inventories, prices, etc. As additional indicators, such characteristics of the market as population size are involved; income level; regional retail sales figures, etc.

The data obtained as a result of the survey (in the form of a percentage distribution of answers) are summarized, ranked and weighted according to a special scale of the importance of characteristics. As a result of averaging the indicators, 6 partial indices and one integral index are determined, which is considered as an index of consumer sentiment. Each of the private indexes plays an independent important role. Some indices describe the current situation, others predict it, others directly reflect the buying intention. The integration of private indicators into the general index is carried out using a system of weights. Private indices are the results of processing respondents' answers to the following questions:

§ on the current personal financial situation;

§ about expected changes in personal financial situation;

§ on expected changes in the country's economy in the coming year;

§ on expected changes in the country's economy in the next five years;

§ on the expediency of large purchases.

Methodologyanalysismarketconjuncture

Market analysis allows you to comprehensively analyze the market situation and give a comprehensive description of the state of the market. It turns out how favorable the conjuncture is for the implementation of the set goals. An important component of market analysis is the system of market indicators. A market indicator is a qualitative or quantitative indicator that, alone or in combination with other indicators, reflects or measures the market situation. Many market indicators are derived on the basis of special market trading and opinion polls based on the opinions of stakeholders: consumers, manufacturers, participants in the trading process, independent experts, etc. The methodology for constructing such indicators is mixed: sociometric techniques are used in the organization of surveys, the selection of respondents and grouping of questionnaires are based on statistical methods, the construction of the indicators themselves uses the principles of marketing, etc. A system of scoring, ranking and weighting according to importance estimates is being used. Some of these indicators are developed by the Russian Agency for Statistics, others by various governmental and non-governmental institutions.

However, it should be taken into account that some market assessments of the state of the market contain an element of subjectivity. One of the methods of informal assessment of market conditions is the analysis of the qualitative characteristics of the data received from trade correspondents. One of the areas of market analysis is the method of constructing a system of business activity indices. These include indicators of market dynamics: growth rates of production (or supply) of goods, inventories, prices, etc. As additional indicators, such characteristics of the market as population size are involved; income level; regional retail sales figures, etc.

In recent years, one of the most important market indicators has become widespread - the consumer sentiment index (CSI), which is based on sociological sample surveys. Intuitive sensations, the influence of public opinion in the social environment of the respondents also affect the assessments of the purchasing mood. The influence exerted by the mass media cannot be ruled out.

One of the opportunistic methods for assessing the state and development of the market is the testing method. Based on the data of the trend surveys, a special market test is developed, which uses three groups of values ​​(variables):

instrumental variables dependent on the activities of enterprises and planned by the enterprises themselves;

· variable expectations, - dependent not on enterprises, but on external factors;

· Aggregate variables - dependent both on the actions of enterprises and on external factors.

The conjuncture test is a simple arithmetic average obtained from three possible estimates of the market trend: growth (rise), stability, decrease (recession), each of which is assigned a corresponding score.

Technologyholdingopportunisticanalysis

Analysis of market conditions should begin with a description of the scale and type of market. The scale of the market is determined by the volume of goods sold, as well as the number and size of firms acting on it as sellers. Firms are ranked by size and ownership, and by market share. The qualitative characteristic of the share (large, medium, small, etc.) is derived from a comparison of the share owned by the company and the share of the largest competitors.

The assessment of the scale and type of the market is complemented by a description of the potential of the market, which determines the possibilities of a product offer and consumer demand. The market potential is divided into production and consumer. The production potential determines the marginal possibilities of the product offer. Accordingly, consumer potential is determined by the magnitude of demand and the dynamics of its possible changes.

The second most important characteristic of the market is its balance. The characteristic of the market balance is determined by the ratio of supply and demand. The balance or equality of these two main categories is not very common, the ratio between them is constantly changing. This, in particular, is one of the manifestations of the spontaneity of the market. The balance or imbalance of supply and demand determines the type of market (seller's market or buyer's market). To analyze the balance of the market, various methods are used: balance, ratios of dynamics indicators, indirect - with the help of indicators, informal and expert assessments. The complexity of the market balance analysis lies in the fact that if the product offer is a documented indicator, then demand cannot be directly assessed (demand is a potential category that exists in the mind of the buyer and in his wallet). Of course, the main patterns and trends in demand can be judged by the turnover (realized demand) or the purchasing funds of the population, but in fact, demand, for a number of reasons, may not significantly coincide with it. Still, imputations need to be taken into account.

The essence of the calculation is as follows: the volume of the product offer is determined (according to the data on the receipt or actual sale of goods), and the population's purchasing funds are calculated (income adjusted for the increase in savings minus mandatory payments). After determining, thus, the commodity supply and demand, their comparative assessment is made and a conclusion is made on the balance of the market.

Commodity stocks are sensitive to any changes in the balance of supply and demand. The excess of demand over supply causes a reduction in inventories, and the excess of supply over demand (or their qualitative discrepancy) is immediately accompanied by an increase in inventories (overstocking). The balance of supply and demand is necessary condition commodity market stability. Commodity stocks in this case serve as an indicator of market conditions.

An important element of market analysis is the analysis of trends in the development of market conditions. The market development trend is an economic and statistical concept that characterizes the pattern of changes in its main parameters over time. The essence of the analysis is to determine quantitative estimates and models of market dynamics that characterize changes in the market situation: a growing / developing market, a stable (developed) market, a declining market.

To determine the vector and rate of market development, dynamic series of indicators characterizing the main parameters of the market are built, and then the growth rates are calculated. Market development trends are determined on the basis of an analysis of changes in its main indicators (deliveries, sales, prices). Dynamic series or their graphic images (diagrams) are visually examined, and on this basis a descriptive characteristic of trends is given.

The dynamic development of the market is characterized by the phenomenon of cyclicality, that is, the repetition of trends and intensity of development. This phenomenon is due to both external factors and deep, intrinsic properties market. There are intra-annual, seasonal cycles and economic cycles, covering several years, and reflecting the patterns of the market mechanism. The cyclicity of the market is changes in the level, vector, speed and nature of its development that are regularly repeated in time.

Seasonal cyclicality is due to the seasonality of agricultural production and seasonal and climatic changes in consumer needs. The simplest way to identify seasonal fluctuations is to calculate the seasonality index, which is defined as the ratio of each level to the corresponding average value calculated for a year, or for several years. The seasonality index shows the actual fluctuations in market parameters corresponding to certain seasons.

The second type of market cyclicality is economic cyclicality. According to economic theory, in its development, the market goes through a series of cycles that replace each other according to the principle: rise - fall - rise, etc. The rise of the market leads to its glut, a crisis of sales (overproduction), it is replaced by a depression, a decrease in business activity, a recession, which gradually turns into a revival and rise of the market. The methodology for identifying market cyclicality includes the following fundamental operations: at the first stage, the market parameters that exhibit the greatest fluctuations are selected, and their dynamic series or their graphic images (diagrams) are built. An analysis that allows us to draw conclusions about the change in the main market processes and their movement through the phases of economic cycles.

The adoption of effective commercial decisions is based not only on the analysis of the current situation, but also on the forecast of its further changes. Market forecast is a scientific prediction of the prospects for the development of demand, product offerings, prices, carried out within the framework of a certain methodology, based on reliable information, with an assessment of its possible error. There are groups of forecasts, the basis of which are: extrapolation of a series of dynamics, interpolation of a series of dynamics, calculation of elasticity coefficients of demand, prices and commodity supply, economic and mathematical modeling, structural modeling, expert assessments, analogy.

Forecasting market elements by extrapolation of time series is the transfer of patterns and trends from the past to the future. technical method extrapolation consists in extending the current dynamic series of demand, product supply or prices for a certain perspective. It is assumed that all the factors that determine changes in a particular element of the market are unchanged over time. When such an assumption is justified, extrapolation gives fairly accurate forecasts of market development. However, if one or another significant factor changes dramatically in the forecast period, then the forecast error can be quite large. And the longer the period, the longer it is. Therefore, extrapolation as a forecasting method is usually used only for short-term intervals.

The time series interpolation method is to find the missing members of the time series within it. According to the known initial and final levels of the series and the established interdependence of its members, any necessary level is calculated. The application of this method is associated with the need to have developed consumption norms, a reliable determination of the year when this norm was reached, and knowledge of the patterns of development of consumption time series. The accuracy of this method is relatively low. Therefore, this forecasting method is used in marketing relatively rarely. Most often it is used for long-term forecasting.

Extrapolation and interpolation methods do not take into account changes in market factors over time. At the same time, it is well known that demand, product supply and prices depend on a large number factors. It is also known that it is impossible to take into account all factors when calculating the prospects for market development. The method of forecasting using the calculation of demand elasticity coefficients consists in choosing the main determining factors of the market and measuring their influence on a particular element of the market.

Elasticity is the ability of demand to change under the influence of changes, any factor. The elasticity coefficient shows how many percent the demand will change when the value of the factor changes by 1%.

As mentioned earlier, market elements depend on a large number of factors that affect them in different directions. Moreover, these factors form systemic complexes, which requires a systematic approach to analysis and forecasting. To take into account simultaneously the influence of many factors in all their diversity, the multidirectional action and uneven impact allow economic and mathematical models.

The economic-mathematical model is a multi-factorial regression equation that describes the dependence of the studied characteristics of the market on several factors at the same time. This forecasting method is the most accurate, but also the most time-consuming. Therefore, its use is justified if it is possible to perform all calculations on a computer.

In marketing practice, it is not uncommon for cases when basic information about the market is either not available, or it is not credible. This happens in the market for new products, when the basic information has not had time to form, or in the markets for traditional products that have not been studied for a long time. In these cases, the method of expert assessments can be used for forecasting. It is based on a survey of experts - quite competent specialists. Its essence lies in the fact that each of the experts expresses his subjective point of view on the prospects of the market, based on own experience and his vision of the problem. The assessments received from experts are averaged, which ensures the objectivity of the examination as a whole. At each examination, the degree of agreement between the opinions of experts is calculated in relation to the average estimate of the forecast, which is expressed as a percentage. It is generally believed that if the degree of agreement between experts exceeds 50%, then the expertise can be trusted.

When little is known about the predicted phenomenon or its dynamics, the assessment of the prospects for its development can be carried out by analogy. By analogy is meant the transfer of knowledge about one object or phenomenon to another object or phenomenon. This forecasting method is only an estimate. It is used in cases where there is no basic information about the development of the market, and there is not enough time to apply any more accurate forecasting method.

Vinfluencestateson theconditionconjuncture

Historical experience shows that fluctuations in economic growth rates are directly related not only to the situation in the world financial markets, but also to the state of the national banking system, the availability of credit, the scale of housing construction, the state of national budgets, the dynamics of social spending, and the standard of living of the population. Economic growth in Russia, which began in 1997 after overcoming the post-socialist recession associated with the restructuring of the most important economic institutions, was interrupted in 1998 by a sharp deterioration in the global economic situation, the outflow of capital from many emerging markets (including Russia), the fall in oil prices (in real terms ) to an all-time low over the past 30 years. Growth recovered in 1999 and continued for 9 years. Its average rate for this period is 6.9% per year. In the beginning, growth was of a recovery nature. Its main source was the use of production facilities created in Soviet time. At the same time, since 2003-2004, it has been increasingly acquiring an investment character. The growth rate of investments in fixed assets in 2007 exceeded 20%. Diversification of the Russian economy, reducing its dependence on fuel and raw materials markets is a strategic problem facing the domestic national economy. Until recently, the growth rates of output in the manufacturing industries were noticeably higher than those demonstrated by the extractive industries. However, structural reforms in Russia have slowed down since 2004. The transformations were not as dynamic as in 2000-2003, when the tax reform, the reform of the fiscal federalism system were carried out, the budget process was transformed, the Stabilization Fund was created, the legal basis for private land turnover was formed, and many other transformations were carried out that are important for ensuring the sustainability of economic growth. . It should be noted that at the end of 2007 the country was on the verge of a serious banking crisis. This was due to developments in the global financial markets. At the same time, the prompt actions of the Central Bank made it possible to eliminate this threat. Documents were adopted and prepared defining the medium-term (until 2010) and long-term (until 2020) prospects for Russian financial, monetary and general economic policy. The slowdown in the growth of the American economy for decades had a serious impact on the development of the economic situation in the world.

Since 1950, the US economy has been in recession in 1954, 1958, 1970, 1974-1975, 1980-1982, 1990-1991, 2001. Typically, the time between recessions in the US is 5 to 10 years. The reaction of world financial markets to the recession in the United States is, at first glance, paradoxical. The engine of recession is unfavorable changes in the American economy. Based on common sense, it can be assumed that in such a situation, capital should leave this country. In fact, the opposite process is going on. In a recession in the United States, wealth owners prefer reliability and liquidity to returns on investments. Capital markets are reacting to the slowdown in the US economy with a wave of funds flowing into US Treasury bills. The last global recession (2001) clearly confirmed this pattern. Fluctuations in economic growth rates are changing the situation in the markets of important export products for Russia: oil, oil products, gas and metals. In 1998, world economic growth fell by 1.4%, the scale of the fall in metal prices was measured in double digits. The same thing happened in 2001 - a mild recession in the United States, a 2.3% drop in world GDP, a transition from an increase in oil prices of 60% per year to a fall of more than 10%. Similarly, during a recession, the situation in the metal market develops. One more characteristic periods of recession - a change in the situation on the capital market. The direction of portfolio investments is changing most dynamically. In relation to capital flows in general, the impact of cyclical fluctuations is weaker. The inertia of the process of making and implementing investment decisions related to the real sector affects.

In the period 1998-2002, against the background of two episodes of a significant slowdown in global economic growth, capital inflows to emerging markets more than halved compared to the period of favorable economic conditions (1995-1996 and 2004-2007). The influence of what is happening in America on the world economic situation comes through two main channels. The first is foreign trade. The slowdown of the American economy leads to a significant limitation of export opportunities to America. The second is the state of world capital markets. Everything that happens in the US stock markets affects the mood of investors. The dynamics of the stock market affects the state of the financial and banking system, the economic situation. The US economy is currently in a recession. The growth of the American economy compared to the average for 2004-2007 will slow down significantly. The number of experts convinced that the US economy in 2008 will be in a state of recession has grown, and this was confirmed by the outbreak of the global financial crisis. This was facilitated by the published data on the unemployment rate in the US. At the end of 2007, the share of the unemployed increased by about 0.6% compared to the beginning of the same year (data from the Bureau of Labor Statistics). The growing risk of a recession was evidenced by data on further deterioration of the situation in the housing market. The volume of newly started construction projects decreased by 25% compared to 2007, it is at the lowest level in the last 26 years. Major US banks have announced they have written off tens of billions of dollars of bad loans as losses. At the end of 2007, the IMF reduced by 0.4% (from 5.2 to 4.8%) the forecast for world GDP growth in 2008.

The fundamental problem with the current downturn in the US is that the banking system has been affected by the crisis. Experience shows that when the stability of the banking system is affected, it takes at least 2-3 years to restore dynamic growth. The Russian economy is stronger than the economies of other CIS countries and depends on the global situation. When the country faced a crisis in emerging markets in 1997-1998, the economic growth that began in 1997 gave way to a decline. In 2001, the American economy entered a recession. Russia reacted strongly to this: GDP growth rates in 2001 fell by 4.9 percentage points compared to 2000, and in 2002 by more than 5 percentage points. It is not difficult to understand the reasons why the fluctuations in the global situation affect Russia more than the world as a whole. 80% of our country's exports are oil, oil products, gas and metals. The prices of these goods are sensitive to changes in the growth rate of the global economy. The period of abnormally high growth rates of 2004-2007, reminiscent of the late 1960s and early 1970s, is over. The slowdown in economic growth in the world in 2008-2010 is an obvious fact. It is necessary to realize this and, proceeding from this reality, develop Russia's economic policy. If in 2000-2006 inflation in our country was either declining or not growing, since 2007, with the dynamic growth of budget expenditures and worsening fiscal balance indicators, inflation has accelerated. This is not the only indicator that the economy is overheating. In the country, since 2004, wages have been increasing at a high rate (in real terms). In 2007, its growth accelerated to 15%. According to surveys carried out by MIBT (5) over the years, a growing number of business leaders complain that labor shortages are the most important barrier to output growth. As often happens in conditions of overheating of the economy, a forced increase in the inflow of capital into Russia begins. In 2007, our country imported more than 80 billion dollars of foreign capital. At the same time, no one guaranteed that, in the event of a deterioration in the global situation, it would be possible to refinance the growth of commercial loans through new borrowings.

The measures taken in 2000-2007 made it possible to reduce the public external debt. But at the same time, external commercial debt grew at a rapid pace. It should be noted that Russia has prepared for a period of unfavorable economic conditions. In contrast to what happened in the Soviet Union against the backdrop of abnormally high oil prices, reserves were formed in Russia to smooth out the impact of adverse changes in the global economic situation: international (gold and foreign exchange) reserves, the Stabilization Fund. In the short term, a recession in the United States will not be a catastrophe for Russia. With reasonable, responsible economic policy the state has enough capacity to cope with the difficulties. At the same time, budget revenues have grown rapidly in Russia over the past 8 years. This was due to the beginning of economic growth, the successfully implemented tax reform in 2000-2002, and the new (since 2004) situation on the oil market. The growth rate of budget revenues reached an abnormally high level. There were also periods of dynamic growth in budget revenues in other countries of the world. For example, the growth rate of budget revenues (in real terms) in France in the 1950s and 1980s, in terms of everything we know about public finances, was abnormally high. In such a situation, there is often a feeling of the omnipotence of the state, that it can afford everything. It is at such times that large-scale and expensive spending programs are formed that determine the financial obligations of the state for decades. In Russia today, the growth rate of budget revenues in real terms is significantly higher than in 1950-1970 in France.

At such a time, the authorities can afford not to think about money. Against this background, decisions to cut taxes and allocate additional budget allocations are easy to make. The country has reserves that allow, if you do not make gross mistakes, to cope with a period of low global economic conditions. The decline in growth rates from 7% of GDP to 3% of GDP is not a catastrophe. The American economy, the largest in the world, dynamically developing for more than 200 years, shows negative rates every 5-10 years economic development. This is unpleasant both for society and for the authorities.

Ppracticalpart

Determine the position of firm D in the market using indicators: market share, average production costs (costs per unit of output), profit per unit of output, gross profit.

There are 5 competing firms in the market for product T. The market is closed, i.e. there are no imports and exports.

The initial data are presented in table 1.

Table 1 - Initial data

1. Determine the total market capacity of the product T

where Qi is the volume of production of goods T of the i-th firm, pieces,

k is the number of firms in the market for product T.

М=66+64+59+68+63=320 thousand pieces

2. Determine the market share of each firm using the formula:

Place the calculation results in table 2.

Table 2 - Ranking of firms in terms of market share

3. Let's determine the average production costs (costs per unit of output), using the data in Table 1, according to the formula:

Then put the calculation results in Table 3 (columns 2 and 3).

Table 3 - Ranking of firms in terms of average production costs

	Average production costs		New indicators
			New average production costs (Иi), rub	New rank, R

4. Determine the profit per unit of output using the formula

where Иi , Цi are, respectively, the average production costs and the unit price of the i-th firm.

The price of goods of the i-th firm is determined as the quotient of the division of revenue by the volume of production (see table 1).

Now, knowing the prices of goods, we determine the profit per unit of production

Table 4 - Ranking of firms in terms of profit per unit of output

	Profit per unit of production (Pi), rub		New indicators
			New profit (Pi), rub	New rank, Rp
Table 4 continued

5. Determine the gross profit of each firm using the formula

Place the calculation results in table 5 (columns 2 and 3).

table 5 - Ranging firms on indicator gross arrived

	Gross profit (Pi), million rubles		New indicators
			New gross profit (Pi), million rubles	New rank, Rp

6. On the basis of the performed calculations, I determine the position of firm B in the market by summing up the ranks by indicators: market share, average production costs, profit per unit of output, gross profit. The results of the calculations are placed in table 6 (columns 2 - 7).

Table 6 - Summary table for assessing the position of the company in the market

Ranks of indicators

Place in the market

New indicator ranks

New place on the market

7. Suppose that out of five competing firms, firm D managed to reduce production costs by (6 + 9)%, and the market price of good T and the volume of production did not change.

Table 1,a - Initial data

Using the above formulas, I will determine the new position (indicators) of firm G in the market for product T, while maintaining the same indicators for other firms. I will place the results obtained in tables 3-6 (their right parts).

8. Let's determine the average production costs (costs per unit of output), using the data in Table 1, according to the formula:

Then put the calculation results in Table 3 (columns 4 and 5).

9. Determine the profit per unit of output

The calculation results are placed in Table 4 (columns 4 and 5).

10. Determine the gross profit of each firm and place the results of the calculations in table 5 (columns 4 and 5).

11. On the basis of the performed calculations, I determine the position of the company G in the market by summing up the ranks by indicators: market share, average production costs, profit per unit of output, gross profit. The results of the calculations are placed in table 6 (columns 8 - 13).

12. On the basis of the obtained new and old results, we will draw a conclusion. Initially, firm D dominated the market for product T. After reducing costs by 15%, some indicators have changed. So, for example, gross profit increased, profit per unit of output increased, but average costs decreased. However, this did not affect the place of firm D in the market for product T. This firm remained the current leader.

Wconclusion

Market analysis allows you to comprehensively analyze the market situation and give a comprehensive description of the state of the market.

The purpose of conducting a market analysis is to identify patterns in the development of the market situation and make a forecast for the development of this situation in the future (long-term, medium-term, short-term).

The market overview consists of five parts:

Introduction

Demand and consumption of goods

· sentence

· Forecast of development of conjuncture.

An important component of market analysis is the system of market indicators. A market indicator is a qualitative or quantitative indicator that allows, alone or in combination with other indicators, to reflect or measure the market situation.

The analysis of the market situation includes the study of two interrelated blocks - the general economic situation and the market situation for a particular product.

An important element of market analysis is the analysis of trends in the development of market conditions. The market development trend is an economic and statistical concept that characterizes the pattern of changes in its main parameters over time.

One of the areas of market analysis is the method of constructing a system of business activity indices.

Analysis of the situation in an industry or a specific product market can be carried out in two ways, depending on the objectives of the study:

§ to study the dynamics of the conjuncture for a certain period, if the task is to find out the trends and rates of its development;

§ analyze the state of the conjuncture by determining the phase of the economic cycle and the approximate place within this phase, if the task is to determine the conjuncture for the current date.

Market analysis is an important part of marketing analysis and marketing research in general. It has a strong influence on all stages of the marketing cycle. The position of the company in the market, its chances for commercial success, the choice of strategy and marketing activities are largely dependent on external conditions and, in particular, on market conditions.

The Russian economy is stronger than the economies of other CIS countries and depends on the global situation.

It is not difficult to understand the reasons why the fluctuations in the global situation affect Russia more than the world as a whole. 80% of our country's exports are oil, oil products, gas and metals. The prices of these goods are sensitive to changes in the growth rate of the global economy.

WITHsqueakusedliterature

1. Belyaevsky I.K. Marketing Research: Information, Analysis, Forecast: Textbook. - M.: Finance and statistics, 2001. - 511 p.

2. Golubkov E.P. Marketing research: theory, practice and methodology. - M.: Finpress, 2004. - 490 p.

3. Dixon P.R. Marketing Management / Per. from English. - M.: BINOM, 2000. - 387 p.

4. Source IMF World Economic Outlook, 2007.

5. Kovalev A.I., Voilenko V.V. Marketing analysis. - M.: Center for Economics and Marketing, Ed. 2nd, revised. and additional, 2000. - 256 p.

6. Kotler F. Marketing management / Per. from English. - St. Petersburg: PETER, 2001. - 510 p.

7. Kotler F. Fundamentals of Marketing / F. Kotler - St. Petersburg: Koruna, 1994

8. Marketing: textbook / E.D. Shchetinina, N.V. Kozlova, M.S. Starikov, V.F. Uvarov. - Belgorod: Publishing House of BSTU, 2007. - 215 p.

9. Peshkova E.P. Marketing analysis in the company's activities. Practical recommendations. Methodological advice. Order of conduct. - M.: "Axis", 1996

10. Spitsin I.O., Spitsin Ya.O. Marketing in the bank Ternopil: JSC "Tarneks", 2002 - 455 p.

Papplication

Typology of marketing analysis

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Strengthening the factor of market novelty of the product determines the growing role of market research, the importance of marketing departments. Market research in relation to the tasks of creating new products is carried out not only by marketing departments of industrial firms, but also by specialized research companies, advertising agencies, universities, and government departments.

This information is provided to suppliers and consumers of industrial and agricultural products in the United States by different companies. These companies provide customer firms with market research individually for each firm in accordance with its position and in strict confidence so that the recommendations of this study do not become the property of competitors. The cost of research is very significant - from 2-3 thousand dollars to several tens of thousands of dollars. The study of the conjuncture as a system of knowledge is one of the applied branches of economic science. The methodological basis for the study of conjuncture is the theory of reproduction. The conjuncture is characterized by the state of production and sales for a certain period of time or the position in the market at the moment.

The word conjuncture - from the Latin "conjungi" - means connection, a set of conditions, a situation. It has entered many modern languages, their economic and commercial vocabulary. It is used in combinations such as general economic conditions, market conditions. V English language the word "conjuncture" did not take root. Instead, terms such as the current situation in the economy or in the field of entrepreneurial activity, the current situation in the market are used.

The conjuncture of the economy is a specific state of the process of social reproduction in a certain time, geographical and other framework, emerging under the influence of a combination of conjuncture-forming factors.

The economic situation includes the following areas with quantitative and qualitative characteristics:

Production potential and its elements include production resources and maximum output, sectoral and reproductive structure of the economy;
- the market, its capacity and structure, i.e. the characteristics of the products sold, as well as the factors that shape the market, including the population, the level of economic development, the distribution of income among the strata of the population, the division of labor in society, the ratio of prices for competing goods, the accumulated fund goods from the population, the state of production assets, the impact of cyclical and short-term forces on the state of demand;
- the organizational structure of the economy, including the corporate structure, the state of concentration, combination and specialization of production and marketing, state-monopoly regulation of the economy;
- the ratio of supply and demand in the market, including the degree of use of production resources, the level of commodity stocks and the size of the portfolio of orders;
- commercial terms product sales.

The conjuncture is studied at different levels.

In the economic literature there are:

a) the general economic situation, i.e., the position in the world economy or the economy of a particular country;
b) sectoral conjuncture, i.e., the state of a particular sector of the world or national economy;
c) market conditions for a particular product.

The concept of "market conditions for a particular product" is used to characterize the economic aspects of the state, trends and prospects for the development of a particular industry or sub-industry. The study includes an economic analysis of activities and processes such as research and development; domestic and foreign patenting; investment; production and marketing of products in domestic and foreign markets; activities of leading industrial firms; specialization and cooperation in the field of production and marketing; sale and purchase of licenses; pricing; prospects for the development of the industry.

The study of the conjuncture of the sectoral commodity market should be based on knowledge of the general economic conjuncture. The study of the market situation is based on the systematization, processing and analysis of economic indicators and other information characterizing the development of the industry over a given period of time. The composition of indicators and other information is determined by the objectives of a particular study, whether it is an analysis of long-term trends in the development of an industry, a change in its technical and economic characteristics, or an analysis of the market situation over a relatively short period of time or at a certain moment. The economic-statistical and commercial literature serves as a source of information about the sectoral conjuncture.

At any given moment, the conjuncture of any commodity market, like that of the capitalist economy as a whole, is determined by the development of the economy. The conjuncture is formed and develops under the influence of many factors (economic, political, scientific and technical, social, etc.). All conjuncture-forming factors can be classified into permanent and temporary, cyclical and non-cyclical, stimulating the development of the market or holding it back. According to the frequency of impact, they are usually divided into permanent and temporary. Constantly operating factors, in turn, are divided into cyclic and non-cyclic. They influence the conjuncture in close interaction, and at the same time, complementing, strengthening or, conversely, weakening each other.

The factors that determine the development of the conjuncture are changing their significance. Thus, in recent years, due to the involvement in the international division of labor of countries with low labor costs, the difference in production costs significantly affects the change in the range of production and marketing. Let's take a look at a small example.

Screw. It would seem, what is easier. However, he played a decisive role in the strategic question. IBM purchased printers for its personal computers in Japan. She wanted to move their manufacture to the US to cut down on imports and reduce shipping costs. But printing devices had too many parts, including screws, so making them in the United States seemed unprofitable. Then the IBM engineers redesigned the printers, the number of parts was reduced by more than half, and the screws were completely eliminated. This made it possible to reduce production costs. Since 1985, IBM has shipped over a million printers from its factories in the United States.

The cyclical nature of the development of the economy is the root cause of the peculiarities of market fluctuations. The market conditions for machinery and equipment follow the movement of this particular cycle. The conjuncture, as a rule, is a more dynamic phenomenon than the phases of the cycle: at times it deviates quite sharply from the direction of the latter. Such fluctuations form the basis of the dynamics of the conjuncture of any commodity market during the corresponding phase of the cycle. These fluctuations are mainly due to the action of non-cyclic constant and temporary factors, as well as random phenomena.

The mechanism of the impact of cyclic factors on the reproduction and formation of the cycle has not undergone fundamental changes: the material base of the cycle is the process of renewal of fixed capital. The dynamics of capital investment and demand of the population for goods in countries continues to be cyclical. The movement of fixed capital is characterized by a sharp reduction in the volume of orders for machinery and equipment during a crisis, a stagnation in their receipt during a depression, accelerated growth during the recovery of the economy and significant growth in the period of its recovery. A similar cyclicity in the dynamics of demand is observed in the market of consumer goods.

Constantly operating non-cyclical factors are the state-monopoly regulation of the economy, the militarization of the economy and the arms race, scientific and technological progress, the concentration of production and capital, inflation, seasonality in the production and consumption of goods. In addition to the above, there is a group of factors, the impact of which on the market situation is manifested episodically: social conflicts(strikes, boycotts, etc.), natural disasters (droughts, floods, hurricanes, etc.), international and domestic political crises, emergency situations, etc.

For obvious reasons, it is not possible to give at least a brief description of these factors. We only note that their significance in shaping the market conditions for machinery and equipment is very different. Depending on the specific features of a particular market, the number of conjunctures of the forming factors and the strength of their influence vary significantly. Moreover, the same factor in certain periods of time and in various conditions impacts differently both on the market as a whole and on its individual sectors. Often, a significant impact of temporary or random factors on the formation of market conditions complicates its analysis and introduces a certain element of conditionality into the forecast, since such factors are practically not amenable to scientific forecasting regarding the time, place of their occurrence, strength, and duration of their impact.

The main difficulty in studying the conjuncture (especially when developing forecasts) is not to determine the range of factors and elements of its formation. This question has been sufficiently developed in the economic literature. The most important task of any study of the conjuncture, the success of which depends not only on the depth of coverage and thoroughness of the analysis, but also on the accuracy and correctness of the forecast, is to establish the significance, the strength of the influence of individual factors on the formation of the conjuncture, to identify the leading factors that determine the conjuncture at each individual moment. and for the near future. A successful solution to this problem can be achieved only if the study of the conjuncture is carried out with due regard for all new phenomena and processes that arise primarily in the sphere of production and circulation.

Competitive tools are developed by companies in accordance with a plan based on “inclusive research” at three structural levels:

Macroeconomic - analysis of general economic relations affecting exports (the size of national income, the level of private consumption, the exchange rate, etc.);
- microeconomic - technical and economic prerequisites for the activity of an individual enterprise in the world market;
- submicroeconomic - the relationship between the structural and functional management of the company and the results of exports.

Continuity of market research is necessary to develop an export strategy that determines the specifics of many tactical decisions: advertising (direct impact on a potential consumer), sales promotion (influence on a reseller) and the formation of public opinion about the company.

How to prepare a market overview?

The main purpose of compiling an overview of the development of market conditions is to develop a correct, reliable forecast for the near future. The entire order of work on the review is subordinated to the achievement of this goal. A typical overview of the world market situation for a particular product usually consists of the following parts.

The results of the analysis of the dynamics of production in general and in distribution by the main producing countries are given, the main reasons for the change in output are shown (the commissioning of new production facilities, an increase in the level of automation of production, an increase or decrease in demand, etc.). The impact on the industry and on the market of scientific and technological progress is specially considered. Provides data on the emergence of new products in the production and improvement of existing ones. An analysis is given of the dynamics of loading production capacities, the availability of their reserve; the movement of the portfolio of orders, the receipt of new ones (from domestic and foreign buyers) is shown. The process of increasing the concentration of production is revealed. The dynamics of production costs is considered. The number of employed in the industry and the unemployed, the impact of strikes on the volume of output and market conditions are analyzed. The plans of leading companies and the state regarding production (increasing production capacity, improving technology, etc.) are considered.

Demand and consumption of goods

An analysis is made of the dynamics and causes of changes in world consumption and demand in general, in the distribution by major consumer countries and major industries (categories of buyers), both traditional and new. The company's structure of consumption, changes in the competitiveness of the goods in terms of quality, technical indicators and other characteristics are reflected. Particular attention is paid to the emergence of new products, the intensity of their introduction on the market. The impact of scientific and technological progress on the level and dynamics of consumption of goods is analyzed, changes in the forms and methods of marketing are clarified.

Particular attention is paid to the plans and programs of companies and government organizations regarding the expansion (reduction) of consumption of this product, changes in the requirements for product characteristics associated with scientific and technological progress in consuming industries. The movement of stocks of finished products from manufacturers and in the distribution network is studied, the policy of producers and consumers in this area is highlighted.

international trade

This section is brief analysis development of world trade in goods, the characteristics of world exports as a whole and for the main supplying countries are given. Changes in their position as exporters are shown, the reasons for the shifts are established. The importance of new forms and methods of trade, export of capital, international exchange of licenses, "know-how" is given. The analysis of the policy of the leading companies, the capitalist state in the field of export is carried out: the customs, currency, credit policy of the respective countries is studied. The impact of various international agreements of companies on the export of this product, on the nature of competition is being studied. Separately, the world imports of this product are considered in general and in distribution by main importing countries, as well as changes in the share of leading importing countries. The influence of the main factors on the dynamics of imports to the main countries is analyzed. The programs of monopolies and states for the development of imports are covered.

Prices

The dynamics of wholesale and export prices (based on their indices) of the leading countries - producers, consumers and exporters of this type of product is considered. The main causes of price changes associated with the emergence of a new production technology, an increase (decrease) in prices for raw materials and semi-finished products, an increase in labor productivity, conditions for the consumption of goods, the impact of inflation, changes in exchange rates, forms and methods of trade, etc. are studied. supply and demand for goods. The policy of companies in the field of prices, the policy of the state for their regulation are covered. If possible, a comparison of the price level in the main countries - producers and importers of this type of equipment is given.

Modern capitalism is characterized by constant changes in the exchange rates of national currencies, which are formed under the influence of supply and demand in the foreign exchange markets. The demand for the national currency is determined by many factors: the state of the trade and balance of payments of the country, the movement of capital between countries, etc. The ratio of exchange rates is affected by the policy of the state, resorting to setting discount rates and other measures to maintain exchange rates. The "floating" of currencies leads to the "floating" of foreign trade prices, causing their constant changes. The depreciation of the country's currency enables its exporters to receive additional, so-called foreign exchange profits.

A depreciation of the currency leads to an increase in import prices in the country, stimulates inflation and subsequently increases production costs. The depreciation of the national currency affects the general level of prices in different ways. Thus, a depreciation of the national currency by 1% leads to an increase in domestic prices in Japan by 0.8%, in Germany - by 0.6, in the USA - by 0.5, in Italy, Belgium and Switzerland - by 1%. The revaluation of the currency causes the opposite phenomena. The export prices of a country, expressed in the currencies of other states, increase, and the import prices, expressed for a given country whose exchange rate is rising, worsen. However, an increase in the exchange rate of the national currency helps to reduce the cost of imports, and also slows down the development of inflationary processes.

Difficulties in studying the process of pricing in world commodity markets lie in the fact that in conditions of constant price fluctuations it is not easy to obtain information about their real level. In trade, a whole system of allowances and discounts is used, which sellers apply based on the state of the market situation and the conditions of each specific transaction.

Quantity discounts are widespread. Their size varies depending on the size of the order, from the discount on bargaining. In trading, almost no transaction is made at the prices that the seller initially names. The value of the bargaining discount achieved in the negotiation process is determined by many factors: the state of the market, the supplier's capacity utilization, and even trade traditions.

Difficulties in determining prices are also caused by the presence on the markets of different varieties of similar goods, the peculiarities of quality, bundling, etc. If in the markets for raw materials, accounting for differences in quality is carried out relatively simply through special surcharges and discounts, then in the markets of finished products, especially machines and equipment, the problem of comparing prices of similar goods is much more difficult to solve. When analyzing price dynamics and determining their level, a number of price indicators are usually used: contract prices, stock quotes, reference prices, price lists and price tags, price indices, etc.

Contract prices reflect the actual level of prices for goods of a certain quality under the appropriate terms of delivery and payment. However, obtaining information about contract prices is not easy, as they usually constitute a trade secret. Sometimes data on concluded contracts, including in foreign trade, are published in the press, special magazines, but, as a rule, without indicating many of the essential details of the transaction (for example, quality indicators, etc.).

Exchange quotations - the prices of goods traded on commodity exchanges (natural rubber, raw sugar, cotton, some non-ferrous metals and a number of others). Exchange quotations are the prices of real contracts carried out on unified terms in terms of quality, volume and delivery time, currency of payment, etc. Commodity prices are sensitive to market changes and are influenced by speculation and other random factors.

Reference prices are prices published by commodity sellers and their associations. Reference prices do not reflect the actual level of contract prices, from which they differ by the amount of discounts provided by sellers to buyers. The amount of discounts depends on the state of the market, the relationship with the buyer, the nature of the transaction, etc. When the market deteriorates, the discounts increase, and when the market improves, they decrease. In contrast to exchange quotations, reference prices are published less frequently, and their accuracy as an indicator of the real price level is much lower.

Price lists and price tags - price indicators of finished products for consumer and industrial purposes. List prices are essentially the same as reference prices for commodities and also do not reflect real market prices that are evolving at any given moment, lagging behind their dynamics. Contract prices differ from list prices in the amount of discounts, the values ​​of which can fluctuate greatly depending on the state of supply and demand, the relationship of the seller and the buyer, etc.

Offer prices. In response to the request of the buyer interested in purchasing the goods, the sellers send an offer for sale, which contains the terms of delivery, payment and price. Offer prices are adjusted in the course of negotiations with the buyer, who usually seeks a discount. Offer prices differ from contract prices. However, for many goods, especially machinery and equipment, bid prices are essentially the only source of information about the level of prices on the market. Offer prices generally more accurately reflect the level of real prices compared to list and reference prices, since when setting them, the seller takes into account the state of demand, the characteristics of the buyer, the specifics of the terms of the transaction, etc.

Price indices are relative indicators that reflect the dynamics of prices, but do not give an idea of ​​their level. In countries, state statistical bodies publish indices of domestic and foreign trade prices for individual goods and commodity groups. Price indices are always given with the reference year in which the index value is assumed to be 100.

Price indices are an important indicator that allows you to identify the main trends in price movements; they are widely used in the analysis and forecast of the conjuncture. With their help, you can also determine the price level for individual goods, using at the same time absolute indicators- contract prices, offer prices, etc. Thus, it becomes possible to “pull up” data on the absolute value of prices, which were, say, a year or two years ago, to the present moment. The need to use indices arose in connection with the increase in inflation in the capitalist market, which leads to the rapid obsolescence of information about the real level of prices.

At the same time, price indices characterize the movement of prices not for a specific product, but for a fairly wide product group, within which price dynamics can develop in different ways. Such discrepancies are especially characteristic of the markets for machinery and equipment, since the product groups for which price indices are determined contain a wide range of products. Therefore, price indices can only be used for a tentative assessment of changes in the price level, and the results obtained with their help should be compared with other data.

Market development forecast

Making a market forecast is a two-stage process. At the first stage, a forecast is prepared for the manifestation of the main factors affecting the conjuncture (permanent, cyclical and non-cyclical), as well as temporary ones. At the second, final stage, a comprehensive forecast of the situation is developed, the main sections of which are forecasts for the production of goods, consumption, international trade and prices.

The forecast for the production of goods takes into account the availability of reserve and commissioning of new capacities, the policy of states to curb or expand the production of goods, the emergence of a fundamentally new production technology, and other measures and factors in the field of production. When preparing a forecast, it is necessary to take into account the movement of the general economic situation. This is especially important for traditional industries. At the same time, the demand for new, science-intensive products and, accordingly, their output are sometimes developing at an increased rate even in conditions of depression or a decline in the general economic situation.

The consumption (demand) forecast is developed taking into account the prospects for the development of industries using this product (for industrial equipment), or the likely trends in consumer demand (for consumer goods), expected consumption levels, expected changes in import needs for this product of the main importing countries and other indicators of the sphere of consumption.

The forecast of international trade in this type of equipment takes into account the prospects for the general economic situation of the capitalist economy, probable trends in production and demand in general, expected trends in the international division of labor, trade and political measures of states and other factors. The main task is to determine the dynamics, the size of exports and imports of this product, in the distribution by major countries - exporters and importers.

The final and, perhaps, the most important stage of work is the forecast of the dynamics and price level. When compiling it, the development of production, consumption, international trade and other indicators of the state and prospects for the development of the market are taken into account. Estimates of price dynamics given in the foreign press are used, price movements in the past and their level at the time the forecast was developed are taken into account.

When making a forecast, it is very important to fully take into account the specifics of a given product and the peculiarities of the behavior of market conditions (supply and demand) caused by this circumstance. The duration of the production of the goods should also be taken into account. So, despite the onset of the crisis, the volume of production of complex, heavy industrial equipment (with a manufacturing cycle of 1-2 years) usually continues to remain at a high level for a relatively long period (six months - a year) and only then begins to decline.

To increase the practical significance of the forecast, it is useful to supplement it with specific recommendations on exports and imports, taking into account the expected changes in the market, in particular, the predicted “reversals” in price dynamics.

Analysis of the market situation is important at any time of the company's activity: both when opening, and when expanding, and during stable operation. The analysis of the market situation is understood as the study of conditions and the identification of patterns of development of the market situation and the compilation on this basis of a forecast of development prospects (short-term, medium-term or long-term).

When starting a new business, an analysis of the market situation is necessary to determine the payback period, the necessary investments (especially for advertising - advertising costs largely depend on the market situation), and so on. For an already operating enterprise, market monitoring is important to determine the direction of future development, in some cases even to the point of changing the type of activity. If expansion is planned, then the analysis of the product sales market is of paramount importance, because it is important not only to have more goods for sale, it must be sold, and at a profit.

It is on the basis of the analysis of the market situation that the tactics and strategy of the enterprise are developed. If the activity of the enterprise is not based on a thorough study of the prospects for the development of the market, then this is fraught not only with losses, but even with complete bankruptcy.

How the market analysis is carried out

Market analysis is often confused with product market analysis, mainly because such analysis is part of market analysis. But the analysis of the sales market for products refers directly to the products, while the analysis of the market situation includes a number of other factors: the presence / absence of competitors in this area; turnover of competitors; assortment list of products manufactured by competitors and the share of the product of interest in this list; pricing policy; the target consumer of this product and the possibility of expanding the target audience, and so on.

To conduct a market analysis, information is required relating to a given market segment, including information about all competitors operating in this area. In this case, one should take into account not only the full analogues of this product, but also close to it in terms of purpose. For example, when it comes to production chocolates, then the opening of a candy factory nearby may have a negative impact on chocolate sales, and the production of a cheap domestic small car will automatically reduce the sales of imported cars.

The collection of information about consumers of this product is especially important. It is easiest to collect and analyze information related to wholesale consumers and/or government consumption. The consumer sector is the most difficult to analyze, that is, if the consumer of this product is the population. In this case, the analysis of the product sales market (as part of the market analysis) should include demographic, socio-economic, psychological, national and even climate studies.

After all the data is collected, they are systematized and the most significant factors are determined, the relationship between factors is established (for example, when selling umbrellas, the number of women in a given region is a more important factor than the amount of precipitation, and the sale of prams is directly related to the unemployment rate ). Then a forecast of the market situation is developed.

It should be noted that the analysis of market conditions is impossible without taking into account the level of real incomes of the population. Obligatory factors for accounting include credit conditions, the volume of mandatory expenses (food, utilities, and so on). For example, a low level of income does not encourage the purchase of expensive goods and services, but preferential lending conditions allow people with an average income to purchase expensive goods. At the same time, a high level of income, combined with acceptable credit conditions, reduces the sales of cheap goods (with a certain income, people are more likely to purchase a more expensive, but also better product than a cheap one that is not distinguished by special quality and durability).

Market Analysis Methods

Statistical methods of analysis are most often used to analyze market conditions. Conventionally, these methods of market analysis are divided into six groups:

• Statistical observation - market monitoring for a set of statistical data sufficient for analysis;
• Systematization, grouping of the received data;
• Descriptive analysis;
• Generalization of the obtained results;
• Link analysis - used to justify decisions based on interrelated variable data (such variables can be, for example, sales volumes of a certain product and its quality);
• Market development forecast - determines the future demand and supply of a particular product in the market or the development of the entire market as a whole.

If the target group of consumers is the population, then it is necessary to apply additional methods of market analysis, taking into account the optimization of the service system, customer loyalty to a certain trademark(which brand will be preferred, ceteris paribus - price, quality, availability, and so on). In such cases, game theory, building simulation models, stochastic programming, and so on are used.

Primary market analysis can be performed by a non-professional, but to make an accurate forecast, the participation of specialists who know all the methods of market analysis and can apply them in practice is necessary.

Sale of ready-made studies

In many cases, it is quite difficult to analyze the market situation on your own, and attracting a specialized company for research can be too expensive (especially when it comes to starting a business, just starting a company). But at the same time, a professional is still needed. The way out of the apparent impasse is to purchase ready-made marketing research.

In the West, this is a common practice: a ready-made marketing research costs much less than ordered specifically for a particular company, and the forecast made on its basis is quite accurate. Moreover, having such a study in hand, it is not too difficult to make changes to it that take into account the necessary nuances for this particular company.

Ready-made marketing research for analyzing the sales market of products is acquired not only by small firms, but also by large companies that have the opportunity to pay for research “for themselves” - everyone is interested in saving. Such studies can be purchased through a specialized company, as well as through the Internet - there is a wide variety of studies on the whole variety of products on the market. For those starting their own business, this is especially true, since you can purchase not only finished analysis market for products, but also a detailed analysis of the market situation in this type of activity.

Ready-made marketing research is especially good in the field of forecasts of future developments of products and technologies - they allow already operating companies to adapt to a promising product in time, and newly opened companies do not waste time breaking through into densely occupied market niches, but immediately join the still free “niches of the future” ".