Plan for the future. Futurist Ray Kurzweil's predictions that are starting to come true

landscaping 20.09.2019
landscaping

It is always interesting what will happen in the future. In 20, 50, 100 years. There is a special science of futurology, which deals with forecasting the future. The forecasts of futurologists do not always come true, but, nevertheless, their opinion is always of interest. This post contains several popular futurological cases from Western and Russian futurologists. Frankly, many of the predictions on this moment look too fantastic. But who knows, who knows...

2035 year. Russia will lose Siberia
Unfortunately, this forecast is quite common. And it is by no means connected with the aggression of China. No, the scenario is quite peaceful, it's all about simple math. The vast territories of Siberia and the Far East are occupied by only about 25 million Russians. The demographic challenges are clear and growing. At the same time, Chinese migration (legal and illegal) is taking place steadily. high level. It is likely that the time will come when the number of ethnic Chinese in Siberia and Far East exceeds the critical value. Of course, they will defend their political rights, be elected to local self-government bodies, and so on. As a result, this territory will be more dependent on China than on Russia. I would very much like to avoid this scenario, but this requires cardinal measures for the socio-economic development of Siberia and the Far East.

2040. Russia will become an agricultural superpower

There is also an interesting prediction. Due to the fact that the world's population is growing at an ultra-fast pace, and there is not enough food, Agriculture. In Russia, Canada, and Scandinavian countries, agriculture is not in such decline as in most other countries. This means that in the future the role of Russia, with its vast territory and agricultural potential, will only grow. In addition, by 2040, water will probably become the most valuable resource humanity. And Russia is the second country in the world in terms of water reserves.

2050 year. Russia vs Turkey

A huge number of wars between Russia and Turkey, as predicted by futurologists, will find a new response in the 21st century. By 2050, the population of these countries should equalize, and Turkey's revanchist sentiments may come out. In principle, there has already been a conflict between our countries in the 21st century. But futurologists predict more serious collisions. And not only futurologists, but also, for example, elders. Here is one of the prophecies of the elder of Athos, the Monk Paisius the Holy Mountaineer: “It will fall apart, and the states that play a decisive role in world politics will give Constantinople to us. They will do this not because they love us, but because God will arrange everything in such a way that they "It will be beneficial for Constantinople to be Greek. Spiritual laws will work. The Turks will have to pay for what they have done, they will perish because they occupied this land without the blessing of God. Their end is near."

2055 year. Russia in space travel

Professional futurologists believe that by the middle of the century our country will be able to become one of the leaders in space tourism. Today, although Russia does not claim leadership in space, it actively participates in the development of tourist space programs in partnership with Japan, France and Germany.


2060 year. Tornadoes

Quite an important and unbanal forecast. According to scientists, seasonal tornadoes in Russia in 50 years will become commonplace, and their number can be counted in the hundreds. Blame it on global warming.

2070 year. Conscript robots

By this year, Russia must completely renew its army. Almost all types of troops will be robotized. The biggest change can be expected in the Air Force: military aircraft will become completely autonomous from the moment they take off to the moment they land. Aircraft(as well as ground vehicles) will be controlled by artificial intelligence.


2090 year. total atheism

According to futurologists, by the end of the century, the number of atheists in Russia will be 80%. Moreover, this will affect not only the Orthodox population, but people representing the Islamic tradition. The reason for such a sharp loss of faith, according to scientists, will be progress in the field of biotechnology and medicine, which will defeat many diseases and extend life.

Analysts did not report anything joyful. In their opinion, the crisis will not end quickly. Therefore, in 2009 the authoritative world powers will have a chance to actively shape the post-crisis world. According to experts, the world after the economic apocalypse and the subsequent catharsis (purification) is expected by four possible scenarios: terrifying, unwanted, neutral or positive, in which the world expects a renaissance or rebirth. After the world gets out of the crisis, there will be a new period of structural growth, which will cause a clash of interests in the financial sector, lead to redistribution and the emergence of new winners and losers in it, Interfax translates some of the theses of the WEF study. So how, according to analysts, will the world order change by 2020?

The computer of the future, according to Gates, will turn from a large desktop machine into a small terminal located inside the table, which will be able to understand commands given by the user and recognize objects lying on the table.

Claimed position alexsword :

My point of view is that the crisis in the world has not really begun yet, miserable speculative panics and unemployment of tens of millions are a crisis, compared to what is coming, I don’t even consider it. There are still no people dying of hunger and freezing in the G7 countries, there are still no uprisings and their suppression. There was not a single coup, not a single coup, not a single act of genocide.

In short - at the moment there are funny children's games, only young ladies and overly impressionable people call them a crisis. Really adult games ahead. In Russia, if everything is done correctly, there will be no crisis in this form and with proper management. This has been discussed many times. Rubbing it all the time personally is not interesting to me. Therefore, after writing a few notes on Russia, see, for example, here:

  • “Forecast for Russia. Renaissance"
  • "201x - models of the future"

Q What will happen to Russia in the 21st century? Futurologists' forecasts

It is always interesting what will happen in the future. In 20, 50, 100 years. There is a special science of futurology, which deals with forecasting the future. The forecasts of futurologists do not always come true, but, nevertheless, their opinion is always of interest. This post contains several popular futurological cases from Western and Russian futurologists. Frankly, many of the predictions at the moment look too fantastic. But who knows, who knows...

2035 year. Russia will lose Siberia

Unfortunately, this forecast is quite common. And it is by no means connected with the aggression of China. No, the scenario is quite peaceful, it's all about simple math. The vast territories of Siberia and the Far East are occupied by only about 25 million Russians. The demographic challenges are clear and growing. At the same time, Chinese migration (legal and illegal) is taking place at a consistently high level. It is likely that the time will come when the number of ethnic Chinese in Siberia and the Far East will exceed a critical figure. Of course, they will defend their political rights, be elected to local self-government bodies, and so on. As a result, this territory will be more dependent on China than on Russia. I would very much like to avoid this scenario, but this requires cardinal measures for the socio-economic development of Siberia and the Far East.

2040. Russia will become an agricultural superpower

There is also an interesting prediction. With the planet's population growing at an ultra-fast pace and food scarce, agriculture will be of particular value. In Russia, Canada, and Scandinavian countries, agriculture is not in such decline as in most other countries. This means that in the future the role of Russia, with its vast territory and agricultural potential, will only grow. In addition, probably by 2040 water will become the most valuable resource of mankind. And Russia is the second country in the world in terms of water reserves.

2050 year. Russia vs Turkey

A huge number of wars between Russia and Turkey, as predicted by futurologists, will find a new response in the 21st century. By 2050, the population of these countries should equalize, and Turkey's revanchist sentiments may come out. In principle, there has already been a conflict between our countries in the 21st century. But futurologists predict more serious collisions. And not only futurologists, but also, for example, elders. Here is one of the prophecies of the elder of Athos, the Monk Paisius the Holy Mountaineer: “It will fall apart, and the states that play a decisive role in world politics will give Constantinople to us. They will do this not because they love us, but because God will arrange everything in such a way that they "It will be beneficial for Constantinople to be Greek. Spiritual laws will work. The Turks will have to pay for what they have done, they will perish because they occupied this land without the blessing of God. Their end is near."

2055 year. Russia in space travel

In one of my previous posts, I wrote about the very deplorable prospects for Russia in space. However, professional futurologists believe that by the middle of the century our country will be able to become one of the leaders in space tourism. Today, although Russia does not claim leadership in space, it actively participates in the development of tourist space programs in partnership with Japan, France and Germany.

2060 year. Tornadoes

Quite an important and unbanal forecast. According to scientists, seasonal tornadoes in Russia in 50 years will become commonplace, and their number can be counted in the hundreds. Blame it on global warming.

2070 year. Conscript robots

By this year, Russia must completely renew its army. Almost all types of troops will be robotized. The biggest change can be expected in the Air Force: military aircraft will become completely autonomous from the moment they take off to the moment they land. Aircraft (as well as ground vehicles) will be controlled by artificial intelligence.

2090 year. total atheism

According to futurologists, by the end of the century, the number of atheists in Russia will be 80%. Moreover, this will affect not only the Orthodox population, but people representing the Islamic tradition. The reason for such a sharp loss of faith, according to scientists, will be progress in the field of biotechnology and medicine, which will defeat many diseases and extend life.

What do you think about quiet predictions?

Andrey Vasilkov

American inventor and futurist Ray Kurzweil is the author of many technological predictions. He published his first predictions in the book The Age thinking machines”, released in 1990. The last time Ray voiced his vision for the future was a week ago at the SAE 2015 International Congress in Detroit. If we collect the named dates in a single list, we get a detailed forecast for the development of key industries until the end of the 21st century.

Raymond Kurzweil became interested in the parallel development of humans and machines while still studying at the Massachusetts Institute of Technology. He always found unexpected directions - from developing speech recognition systems to solving the problem of immortality. While the digitization of consciousness and its placement in computer model the brain seems like science fiction, but the award-winning author of How to Build a Mind is ready to announce the dates for the emergence of technologies that facilitate this.

Recently, turning fantastic ideas into reality has become a direct task for him, since for the past three years he has been in office technical director units for the development of machine learning and processing methods natural language Google company.

Ray's futurological announcements are interesting, if only because many of his early predictions are coming true before our eyes. We are talking about augmented and virtual reality systems, wearable electronics, smart clothes, electronic assistants (like Google, Siri and Cortana), self-driving cars and dozens of other changes in everyday life. What awaits us in the near future, if we are smart enough to live up to it?


2019
Most people will have multiple computers, although the meaning of the term itself will also change. The computing power of computers costing up to $4,000 will reach 20 quadrillion calculations per second. Microcomputers will be embedded everywhere - in clothing, jewelry, furniture and even walls. The same applies to photo and video cameras, the lenses of which are reduced to the size of a pinhead.

People will get virtual reality systems that form an image directly on their retinas. Users will communicate with their computers through a two-way speech and gesture interface, with little or no need for a keyboard. Cables and wired peripheral interfaces will almost completely disappear.


All students will have access to computers. The main training will be built in the form of remote adaptive courses, in which students and teachers will be present remotely.

Blind and visually impaired people will be able to wear glasses that will interpret real world through speech. Similarly, deaf people will use wearable devices that convert speech into text or signs, and music into images or tactile sensations. There will also be an artificial retina, a bionic ear and other neuroimplants, but they will exist in a limited number.


Patients with injuries spinal cord will again be able to walk using an exoskeleton controlled via a brain-computer interface or direct commands from their own nerve endings.

Numerous tactile feedback devices will appear. For example, gloves or even whole suits that broadcast remote touches. They will be used in virtual reality systems and for more emotional communication of people over the Internet, including virtual sex.


Volumetric lattices of nanotubes will displace silicon from microelectronics. Instead of traditional algorithms, parallel ones will be massively used. neural networks and genetic algorithms.

Automatic translation systems will become so effective that they will be widely used in professional fields and everyday life.

2021
Internet access will be available from 85% of the earth's surface. It will become predominantly wireless and very cheap. Formal payment for it will be debited automatically.


Computer programs will learn to create art at the level of contemporaries, or even better than them. AI-created paintings, musical compositions and sculptures will appear.

Paper books will become a rarity. The primary means of viewing texts will be thin, lightweight portable displays with very high resolution.

2022
Robots will become as familiar as pets. Governments developed countries will begin to pass laws governing the relationship between humans and robots. A few years earlier, this will happen with virtual characters, with whom some will devote more time to communication than to conversations with real people.


2024
Autopilot and driver assistance systems will be widespread in cars, trucks and public transport. In a number of countries, people are completely forbidden to drive a car without an electronic driver assistant. In the period from 2020 to 2025, compact personal aircraft will appear.

2025
Wearable electronics will begin to be replaced by implantable ones. We will learn how to effectively fight the aging process and will constantly extend our lives with the help of nanorobots and other technologies that do not even have a name yet.

2028
Alternative energy will become one of the key technologies for the development of all others. It will be approved as the dominant concept. Solar panels will become so efficient that they will be enough to cover most of the energy costs.


2029
The program will not only be able to completely pass the Turing test, but will do it better than many real interlocutors. A thousand dollar computer will be orders of magnitude superior to the average human brain in most areas.

Brain simulation will become much more accurate. Functions of hundreds of different sub-regions, algorithms for their development and work will be determined. They will be decoded and included in neural network algorithms.

2031
Many people will voluntarily become cyborgs, and due to the abundance of implants, the term “human being” itself will be rethought. Organs will be made by machines in any major hospital.

There will be computer implants with a direct connection to the brain and individual groups of neurons. They will be able to give a person superpowers - enhance perception, improve memory, increase reaction speed and reduce learning time.


2033
Computers will learn without human intervention. Non-biological forms of intelligence will combine the subtlety of the organization of the human mind with the speed, memory and limitless possibilities of knowledge sharing of machine intelligence.

Almost all cars will become self-driving. Agricultural work and transport systems will also be fully automated.

2034
The development of AI will lead to the emergence social movements for the rights of cars. The global orbital defense program will effectively prevent large meteorites and asteroids from falling to Earth.


2038
Transhumanism will become one of the key areas. Neuroimplants will allow you to quickly receive career guidance and any specific knowledge. The body's own cells can be programmed for new functions and the treatment of disease.

2041
Internet traffic will increase hundreds of millions of times, and search engines will be embedded everywhere. Requests to them can be sent even by the power of thought through BCI.

2045
The first realization of physical immortality: nanorobots help overcome apoptosis and protect the body from any negative impacts.


2049
Food is usually assembled by nanobots from scrap materials. Such food is completely indistinguishable from "natural", but can be modified in any way by a simple modification of the program. For example, it can become more or less high-calorie, change the content of amino acids, vitamins, microelements, or even initially include enzymes for its digestion. Synthetic food production technology will solve the problem of hunger and make food production independent of climatic conditions and availability of natural resources.

The distinction between virtual reality and what is so far commonly referred to as the "real world" will be completely erased. This will be facilitated by both the development of augmented reality systems and the fact that almost all physical objects will be able to perform immediate self-assembly or change their properties.


2072 – 2099
Nanotechnologies will give rise to picotechnologies. People will learn to manipulate structures with a dimension of one trillionth of a meter. An era of technological singularity will begin, which will spread beyond the Earth along with humanity. Our thinking no longer has advantages over artificial intelligence. People and machines have merged at all levels of being. Many people do not have a permanent form at all. They exist in the form of programs, their consciousness is able to control several different physical bodies and create new ones. The boundaries between the material manifestations of personalities are gradually blurring, so it is impossible to determine exactly how many people live on Earth and beyond.

"Copy a person's consciousness onto an electronic device." This is not an idea from science fiction literature, but a very possible future. Ray Kurzweil, futurist, author, and director of engineering at Google, shares his thoughts on how technology will evolve over the next thirty years.

The Motherboard portal called Ray Kurzweil "a prophet of technological destiny and technological salvation." So far it has been very accurate.

On tight timelines, author, inventor, computer scientist, futurist, director of engineering at Google shows that 86 percent of his predictions came true - including the collapse Soviet Union, the development of the Internet, and the ability of computers to beat humans at a game of chess.

Catch up and overtake: when a computer becomes smarter than a person

Kurzweil continues to share his vision for the future. His last prediction was made at the SXSW conference, where he argued that the "singularity" is the moment when technology becomes smarter than people- will come in 2045. This is not just thinking out loud: Ray Kurzweil has devoted his entire life to developing machine learning methods and creating artificial intelligence technologies.

“I proved that by 2029 artificial intelligence pass a valid Turing test, and thus reach the level of human intelligence," Kurzweil told Futurism.

office in cyberspace

Kurzweil's vision of the future does not stop at the "singularity". He also predicted how technologies such as Neuralink Ilona Mask or Kernel Brian Johnson , will influence our bodies, guiding humanity towards a possible future in which both our brains and our bodies in general will be mechanized.

This process could start with science fiction-level breakthroughs in virtual reality technologies. According to Kurzweil, virtual reality there will be such a serious development that physical jobs will become a relic of the past. In a few decades, our movements will only need to put on a headset. All the knowledge of the world is already available to any person through electronic devices, regardless of location. It remains only to establish a direct connection between the brain and the world's "data cloud".

As Inverse highlights, such a paradigm shift may have some interesting consequences. Without the need to live close to work, we could reach an unprecedented level of de-urbanization. People will no longer need to flock to big cities or be tied to a certain place. Inverse suggests that such decentralization may reduce the possibility of terrorist attacks. Blockchain technologies will also contribute to this.

technology of immortality

According to Kurzweil, technology will not only allow us to rethink modern concept workplace, they will also provide an opportunity to replace our biological machinery with more substantial equipment.

He suggested that by the early 2030s we would be able to copy human consciousness onto electronic media.

“No more flesh, blood or bones – just a scanned copy of your brain in a machine – and that will allow people to take on any form, from a box to a bird,” Inverse explains. This ability has a more serious meaning: people will no longer die. Since our brains will no longer rely on fluctuating biological processes, we could (theoretically) live forever.

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