Risks in innovation activity. Types of innovation risks

Federal Agency for Education of the Russian Federation

State educational institution

Higher professional education

St. Petersburg University

Service and Economy

Institute of Regional Economics and Management

Course work

Discipline: " Innovation management»

Topic: “Risk management. Innovation project risk»

Completed by: 4th year student

Correspondence branch

Speciality:

"organisation management"

Checked ___________________

St. Petersburg

Introduction…………………………………….…………………………………….3

ChapterI. The essence of innovation risk…………………...………….5

1. Types of innovation risks……………………………...……….6

   Main stages of risk management……………………………..7

   Risk management methods…………………………..………….10

ChapterII. Innovative projects. Essence………………..……….13

1. Principles for differentiating the risks of innovative

projects………………………………………………………….....14

Classification of risks of innovative projects………...…….17

The main stages of creation and implementation

innovative project…………………………………………..21

Conclusion………………………………………………………………….…..26

Bibliography…………………………………………………………….28

Introduction

Risk management is one of the most important management functions, the content of which is determined by the level of development of the economy as a whole and the characteristics of the current historical stage in the development of society. So, in a period when the main activity of companies was aimed at organizing industrial production on a large scale, such applied disciplines of management as financial planning and logistics were actively developing. Risk management was based mainly on the intuition of managers and was limited to the use of traditional insurance methods. In subsequent years, the main emphasis in the development of management methods was on the development of marketing. The tasks of strategic planning, conducting a comprehensive analysis of the economic activity of enterprises, assessing economic efficiency, and managing product quality came to the fore. Since the 1980s, the trend of globalization of the world economy has become more and more pronounced, which not only led to serious structural shifts at the level of international business and finance, but also had a significant impact on the state of the national economies of individual countries. The most important factors influencing this process were the achievements of scientific and technological progress (computers and telecommunications), the reduction of government intervention in the economy and finance, primarily in such developed countries like the US, UK and Japan, the growth of capital flows at the international level and increasing their mobility.

Globalization has also affected Russia. The influence of external factors of instability in combination with internal contradictions (the economy in transition, the weak development of the innovation market in the scientific and technical sphere, the backlog of developed methods and tools for managing business entities in market economy) could exacerbate the negative impact on the Russian economy.

Despite the fact that in the Russian Federation such organizations as the Information and Analytical Center for Investment and Commercial Risk Management at the Chamber of Commerce and Industry of the Russian Federation and the Center for Risk Investments of the Institute for Economics and Business Organization of the Russian Academy of Natural Sciences deal with risk issues, risk management issues are in the innovation management is almost never considered. Studies that raise this issue focus, as a rule, only on the preliminary selection of projects and the formation of portfolios, which does not allow the full application of their methods in the implementation of innovative projects and requires further development.

Thus, the relevance of the chosen topic is determined by the following.

1. Modern economic systems are characterized by an increase in the uncertainty of their behavior due to the complication and acceleration of the processes occurring in them and the increase in the scale of the consequences of decisions made. This is of particular importance in relation to the processes associated with the development of innovations, as a determining factor in the economic development of the organization.

2. The existing level of theoretical and applied developments in the field of risk management cannot always be used in innovation management due to its specifics, and therefore, their improvement and development is necessary. Objective and timely identification and assessment of risks becomes a determining condition for the success of managerial decisions and innovative projects in general.

3. The methods and methods used to assess the risks of implementing innovative projects, as well as their application in practice, are, as a rule, fragmented, which does not always allow comparative analysis various projects in terms of their effectiveness and feasibility.

ChapterI. Essence of innovation risk.

Innovation risk is especially important in modern entrepreneurial activity, which is at the stage of increasing capital used both for the production of existing goods (services) and for the creation of new, previously unproduced ones.

innovation risk - is the probability of losses arising from the investment by an entrepreneurial firm of funds in the production of new goods (services), which may not find the expected demand in the market 1.

Innovation risk occurs when:

the introduction of a cheaper method of producing a good or service compared to the one already in use. Such investments will provide the entrepreneurial firm with a temporary windfall as long as it is the sole owner of the technology. In such a situation, the firm faces only one type of risk - a possible incorrect assessment of the demand for the product;

in the creation of a new product (service) on old equipment. In this case, the risk of incorrect assessment of demand for a new product or service is added to the risk of inconsistency in the quality of the product (service) due to the use of old equipment;

in the production of a new product (service) with the help of new equipment and technology. In this situation, innovation risk includes the following risks: that a new product (service) may not find a buyer; non-compliance of new equipment and technology with the necessary requirements for the production of a new product (service); the impossibility of selling the created equipment, as it is not suitable for the production of other products in case of failure.

In the literature on business theory, one often encounters the terms "high risk" and "low risk". The level of risk depends on the ratio of the scale of expected losses to the volume of assets of the entrepreneurial firm, as well as the probability of these losses occurring.

Types of innovation risks.

Innovative activity, to a greater extent than other areas of entrepreneurship, is associated with risk 2 . In conditions of unstable economic conditions, the problem of the risk of losses when a company invests in innovation becomes especially relevant.

There are several types of risk that are most characteristic of modern conditions:

Risks of erroneous choice of innovative projects. The reasons for the emergence of this type of risk may be an insufficiently substantiated choice of priorities for the economic and market strategy of the enterprise. This is possible, for example, in the case of the predominance of short-term interests in decision-making over long-term ones. The prospects for the position of the enterprise in the market, its financial stability can be erroneously assessed. In addition, the author of an innovative project often overestimates its significance for the consumer - in this case, the cause of the risk is an erroneous assessment of the consumer market.

The risk of failure to provide an innovative project with a sufficient level of financing. It includes the risk of not receiving funds for the development of the project (the company was unable to attract investors due to an incorrectly drawn up business plan for the project) and the risk of choosing the wrong sources of financing (the impossibility of implementing the project at its own expense, the lack of available sources of borrowed funds, etc.)

Risk of non-execution of business contracts. It can also be of several types: the risk of a partner refusing to conclude an agreement after negotiations (in the event of a sharp change in the economic situation); the risk of concluding contracts for not very favorable conditions(with the dictates of the supplier, or in the absence of sufficient experience from the company); the risk of concluding contracts with incapacitated (insolvent) partners; the risk of non-fulfillment by partners of contractual obligations on time.

Marketing risks of current supply and distribution. This group is quite extensive. In most cases, it is determined sufficient level the professionalism of the marketing services of the enterprise, or the absence of any at all.

The risk associated with securing property rights. The problem of this type of risk is especially relevant for enterprises producing innovative products. The main reason for its occurrence in Russian enterprises is the imperfection of patent legislation (obtaining a patent (license) late, short term patent validity, etc.)

The main stages of risk management.

Under risk management in innovation activities is understood as a set of practical measures that reduce the uncertainty of the results of innovation, increase the usefulness of the implementation of the innovation, and reduce the cost of achieving the innovation goal.

The main tasks of risk management in innovation activities include:

prediction of manifestation negative factors, affecting the dynamics of the innovation process;

assessment of the impact of negative factors on innovation activity and on the results of the introduction of innovations;

development of methods for reducing the risks of innovative projects;

creation of a risk management system in innovation activities.

The implementation of the goals and objectives of risk management is assigned to managers of innovative projects.

Reducing the uncertainty of the results of innovation activities is achieved by creating a database of innovation projects and accumulating information on the degree and quality of their implementation. To manage risks in innovative activities, it is necessary to ensure the relevance (sufficiency) of information for decision-making.

The growth of the utility of an innovation is directly related to the variability of the innovation. The development of options for the implementation of innovative projects is the main task of the theory of innovation management. And since the number of innovation implementation options is limited to a finite set, deterministic methods for choosing alternatives give quite satisfactory results.

The innovation risk management cycle includes the following steps:

1. Forecasting and identification of risks.

Forecasting risk situations is based not only on the ability to foresee and calculate the possible development of events related to the implementation of innovative activities, but also on knowledge of the structure, the ability to identify the risks themselves.

Innovation risk is the result of the combined action of factors that determine various types of risks: scientific and technical, economic, political, entrepreneurial, social,

ecological and others.

Knowing about the possibility of risky situations, innovators get the opportunity to analyze and develop specific measures aimed at reducing the possibility of risky situations or mitigating their consequences in innovative activities;

2. Analysis and quantitative assessment of risks.

Risk analysis is carried out both on the basis of calculation and analytical methods, and with the involvement of expert assessments. At the same time, it is necessary to take into account a number of factors of innovation risks, which are usually divided into fundamental, market and internal ones.

Fundamental risk factors are determined on the basis of an analysis of the political, economic, financial and credit policies of both individual countries and the world community as a whole.

market factors due to the presence of a microenvironment that directly affects the innovative activity of the organization.

TO internal factors include factors that characterize the innovative potential of the enterprise.

The risk can be assessed by direct and indirect indicators.

To direct indicators of entrepreneurial risk include growth indices of the main economic characteristics (volumes of production or sales, net profit, and others).

Indirect indicators of risk are used when it is impossible to obtain the values ​​of direct indicators or to check the reliability of the values ​​of direct indicators. These include characteristics of the qualitative state of capital (intensity of asset turnover, the ratio of borrowed and own funds, liquidity of assets, etc.);

3. Development of risk management methods.

Risk management methods in innovation activities are usually divided depending on the nature of risks:

If the risk parameters do not depend on the actions of the project management team (pure risks), risk management is focused on mitigating the consequences of the occurrence of risk situations;

In other cases, the risk management activities of innovation activities are aimed at completely eliminating or reducing the possibility of risk situations (risk prevention, training, the formation of a risk management system, etc.).

4. Monitoring the innovation process and making decisions to reduce risks necessary to adjust innovation and achieve the goals of the organization in an unstable environment.

Risk management methods.

The main risk management methods include: risk distribution, diversification, limiting, insurance, hedging, risk avoidance and others.

Risk distribution is usually carried out between project participants in order to make each participant responsible for the risk, if possible, who in these conditions will be forced to calculate and control the risks, as well as take the necessary measures to overcome the consequences of the risks.

Diversification allows you to reduce risks due to the diversity of activities, sales and supplies, accounts payable, investments, etc.

The simplest example of multidirectional investments is a portfolio formed from two securities with coefficients that match in modulus but differ in sign. As a result, the decrease in the market value of some securities is almost completely offset by the growth of others, i.e. regardless of the market situation, the value of the portfolio remains stable, and investments are subject to only systematic risk.

Possible options for diversifying the investment portfolio include:

combination of financial assets moving in parallel with market indices and other financial assets , having the opposite trend;

the presence of foreign securities, as the economy different countries do not always move synchronously, etc.

Limitation(restriction) ensures the establishment of the maximum amount of expenses, sales, credit. This method is used by banks to reduce the degree of risk when issuing loans to business entities, when selling goods on credit, providing loans, determining the amount of capital investment, etc.

Insurance as a system of economic relations, includes the formation of a special fund of funds ( insurance fund) and its use by paying insurance compensation for various kinds of losses, damage caused by adverse events (insurance events). For insurance, the presence of two parties is mandatory: a special organization in charge of the relevant fund (insurer), and legal or natural persons making fixed payments to the fund (insured). Their mutual obligations are regulated by the contract in accordance with the terms of insurance.

Depending on the system of insurance relations, various types of insurance are distinguished: double insurance, reinsurance, self-insurance.

double insurance implies the presence of several insurers of the same interest against the same dangers, when the total sum insured exceeds the sum insured under each insurance contract.

At reinsurance the risk of payment of insurance indemnity or the sum insured assumed by the insurer under the insurance contract may be insured or fully or partially with another insurer (insurers). Upon the occurrence of an insured event, the insurance company - reinsurer shall be liable in the amount of reinsurance obligations assumed.

self-insurance - creation of cash and in-kind insurance funds directly in economic entities. The main task of self-insurance is to promptly overcome temporary difficulties in financial and commercial activities.

Hedging- an effective way to reduce the risk of adverse changes in the price environment by concluding futures contracts. The method allows you to fix the purchase or sale price at a certain level. By buying and selling futures contracts, the entrepreneur protects himself from price fluctuations in the market and thereby increases the certainty of the results of his production and business activities.

In management practice, sometimes there are cases when it is necessary to get away from risky innovative projects or stop joint activities with partners. For this there are risk avoidance methods:

rejection of unreliable partners;

rejection of risky projects;

search for guarantors, etc.

Innovations, unlike stable processes, can end in complete failure. Nevertheless, an increasing number of entrepreneurs, starting to implement innovations, prefer to calculate their risks and chances, anticipate bottlenecks and try to reduce possible negative deviations. These tasks are solved when creating a risk management system.

ChapterII. Innovative projects. Essence.

The term "innovative project" has two meanings:

Case, activity, event, involving the implementation of a complex of any actions that ensure the achievement of certain goals;

A system of organizational, legal and accounting and financial documents necessary for the implementation of any actions.

Depending on the degree of completion of research and the nature of R&D results 3, innovative projects are divided into the following categories:

1. Innovative projects related exclusively to the promotion of a finished innovative product.

2. Innovative projects with an unfinished implementation stage.

3. Innovative projects with an incomplete R&D stage.

4. Innovative projects with an unfinished stage of research.

5. Innovative projects with an incomplete stage of exploratory research.

As a rule, raising funds for innovative projects from commercial sources is possible if there is a real R&D result. Projects related to the promotion of a finished innovative product are the most attractive for investment. More risky projects are projects focused on promotion new technology. For such projects, it is more difficult to develop a marketing concept. The greatest problems with financing arise for projects with an incomplete R&D stage and an incomplete stage of exploratory research. When conducting exploratory studies, a negative result is possible, which may be the result of an incorrect direction of research, an erroneous statement of the problem, errors in calculations, as well as a situation where the study was not completed on time. When conducting R&D, errors are sometimes observed in estimating the timing of their completion; violation of standards and certification requirements; obtaining an unpatentable result.

The risk of innovative projects takes into account the probabilistic nature of the expected result under conditions of uncertainty. In other words, risk of innovative projects- uncertainty depending on decisions taken, the implementation of which occurs only over time 4 .

Risk assessment is a part of any entrepreneurial decisions, including those related to innovative projects. Innovative projects depend on investments in individual industries, enterprises, and production.

Principles of differentiation of risks of innovative projects.

The differentiation of risks of innovative projects is carried out according to the following principles:

- the risk of originality, due to the fact that original technologies may not be in demand by production and the market;

- risk of technological inadequacy(new products become investment-attractive if they can be technologically applicable in production);

- risk of financial inadequacy(discrepancy between the value of the innovative project and the provided financial resources for its implementation)

- risk of unmanageable project(successful implementation of the project involves a combination of originality and sophistication of the project and the cohesion and professionalism of the management team);

- by the time of occurrence of risks during the implementation of the project;

- according to the consequences of the risks(failure to meet planned deadlines, overspending of resources, penalties);

- technical risks are possible during manufacture and later during the installation and commercial operation of the purchased equipment. As a result of their appearance, the quality of the equipment and the products produced on it is reduced. The reason for the emergence of technical risks is the complexity of the equipment, as well as the inexperience of personnel in the application of new systems and technologies;

- timing risks arise if the time for performing certain work, as well as for carrying out various kinds of auxiliary activities (gathering information, compiling documentation, business trips, etc.) is incorrectly taken into account. A shift in the timing of the project may occur both for technical reasons and for external reasons beyond the control of the manufacturer;

- the risk of unclaimed products - this is the probability of losses for the manufacturer due to the possible refusal of the consumer from his products. It is characterized by the amount of possible economic and moral damage suffered by the company for this reason due to a drop in demand for its products.

- socio-cultural risks, related to social, political factors, cultural norms, values ​​and other relations in society;

- political risks arise as a result of peculiarities and differences in the political and economic systems of individual states, for example, tax laws, export-import restrictions, the dangers of military action and political upheavals. Political risks are high specific gravity in third world countries and in states with an unstable political and economic situation. The consequences of such risks are, first of all, an increase in the terms of implementation and, as a result, the occurrence of additional costs (customs duties, bribes, etc.). Such risks are especially typical for international innovation projects;

- legal risks include all possible risks arising from laws, regulations, contracts and agreements.

- project environmental risks are the main cause of other risks and have a direct impact on the success of the project, so they are at the head of the cause-and-effect scheme of project participants.

Project environmental risks arise from the outside, as a rule, in international innovation projects and are not amenable to active influence on the part of the project participants themselves.

This risk group of international innovation projects due to the general situation of the country in which the project is being implemented, therefore they are often called customer risks. A thorough analysis of such risks will avoid new problems, in connection with which the analysis of the external conditions of the project is fundamental to the entire process of identifying potential risks.

The following project risks may adversely affect the success of the project:

Unstable liquidity of the producer;

The occurrence of potential losses due to the abandonment of other projects in the course of the full loading of the manufacturer's existing capacities by the project being implemented;

The danger of a passive or negative attitude of the employees of the manufacturing enterprise to the ongoing project;

Risk of loss of the company's image.

Participants in the implementation of an innovative project face the problems of making an entrepreneurial decision in a risky situation.

Classification of risks of innovative projects.

When constructing a risk classification of innovative projects, it is advisable to use the block principle 5 . The block principle of risk classification of innovative projects assumes the distribution of risk by categories, subtypes, groups and subgroups and other levels. It is precisely because of the variety of risks of innovative projects that the classification of risks is carried out not according to the end-to-end, but according to the block principle. Risks can be external, internal and mixed.

TO external risks include general economic, market, socio-demographic, natural and climatic, information, scientific, technical and regulatory types of risk.

At the same time, the reasons that determine the external economic, market, natural-climatic, information, scientific, technical and regulatory types of risk lie in the actions of the subjects of the external environment, as well as the internal one, therefore they are classified as mixed.

Mixed risks associated with the activities of developers of innovative projects.

Basis for the classification of economic internal risks enterprises are as follows.

1. If possible, foresight - foreseen and unforeseen (or similar in meaning - predictable and unpredictable).

2. Intention to create a risk situation (crimes, service mistakes, etc.).

3. For the reasons and perpetrators of the occurrence.

4. By place, time, detection methods.

5. Possibility of insurance.

6. By duration of action.

7. By ways of minimizing the consequences.

8. By stages of the production cycle.

9. By stages of the technological process.

10. According to production conditions.

11. According to the stages of the life cycle of new products manufactured by the enterprise.

12. According to the location of the products.

13. According to the stages of the life cycle of products sold by the enterprise.

14. By types of products (by nomenclature, items of the assortment plan).

15. By type of organization of production.

16. By the level of prices for manufactured products.

The listed bases can be used in the construction of both a continuous, end-to-end, and block classification of the internal economic risks of an enterprise.

When assessing the risk of innovative projects, we mean: the degree of compliance of the project with the market and innovative strategies of the enterprise; the level of research work; production level; innovative marketing.

In innovative projects, it is important to take into account the risk of lack of demand for new products, new design solutions, etc.

To avoid the consequences of the lack of demand for products, the manufacturer must analyze the reasons for this, and therefore it is necessary classification of risk factors for lack of demand for products 6 .

The purpose of this classification is:

Identification of possible directions of occurrence of the risk of lack of demand for products;

Analysis of the causes of consumer refusals from the products offered to him;

Preliminary estimate possible consequences the risk of unclaimed products;

Analysis of risk avoidance opportunities;

Ways to avoid risk;

Ways to minimize the costs of eliminating the consequences in the event of a lack of demand for products;

Creation of an information base for making managerial decisions.

The risk of not being in demand for products belongs to the category of mixed and is associated both with the uncertainty of the external environment and with the activities of the enterprise itself that produces and (or) sells products.

Risk factors for unclaimed products: factors of production; the environment of occurrence; responsibility centers; cost centers; originators; working conditions; time of occurrence; detection time; types of products; product consumer; sales channels; product demand.

The emergence of the risk of lack of demand for innovative products is due to internal and external reasons.

Internal causes depend on the activities of the organizations. These include:

Insufficient qualification of personnel;

Wrong organization of the production process;

Improper organization of supply of the enterprise with material resources;

Incorrect organization of sales of finished products;

Fuzzy enterprise management.

external reasons, as a rule, do not directly depend on the activities of the developers of innovative projects. The main external factors causing the risk of lack of demand are:

Engineering and design;

The solvency of the consumer;

Transport; socio-economic; demographic;

Organization of work and the state of the financial system;

Increase in interest rates on deposits;

Regulatory; political and others.

Engineering and design include the level of design and technological development and compliance with the deadlines for the delivery of technical specifications for the product. If, for example, the regulatory and technical documentation for products is not received by the manufacturer on time, then its release may be delayed within the time frame corresponding to contracts with customers, during this time the products will become obsolete, competitors will appear, etc. There is a risk of unclaimed products.

The main stages of creation and implementation of an innovative project.

There are five stages of innovative change: preparation (planning), "unfreezing" (preparation of the company for changes), direct implementation of the change, "freezing" (consolidation of the results of transformations) and evaluation of the results of the innovation 7 .

At the preparation stage:

Determine the main content and level of change;

Make a preliminary change plan aimed at achieving certain improvements;

Conduct an analysis of the driving and restraining forces and the possible potential to support change;

Determine who specifically affects the changes, what are the reasons for possible resistance;

Choose a change strategy and methods to overcome resistance;

Identify and analyze problems that are likely to be caused by innovation;

Make a realistic plan for implementing the change and identify criteria against which the change will be monitored and evaluated;

Determine the necessary resources (human, temporary, financial, material, etc.), including external consultants.

2. during the defrosting phase:

Determine the time to relieve psychological stress in the organization;

Choose methods of training and informing employees that are consistent with the change strategy;

They control the process in preparing the change, and, if necessary, adjust the approaches and plans.

3. at the stage of change:

Change only what is necessary to achieve the desired improvement;

Form sufficient reserves of time and other resources in case of unexpected difficulties;

Create conditions for a change in strategy, if, as experience suggests (yours, employees or consultants), this will contribute to the success of the innovation;

Inform employees of the company about the success of the transformations.

4. during the freezing phase:

They allocate the necessary resources to consolidate, “save” the actions carried out at the stage of change;

Consider the issues of subsequent training of employees (for work in new conditions);

Implement plans (to use the results of the innovation) as appropriate.

5. at the evaluation stage:

Conduct follow-up studies;

Provide feedback to those affected by the changes;

Inform (employees, company management, external environment, etc.) about the results of the innovation.

Each project, regardless of the complexity and amount of work required for its implementation, goes through certain stages in its development: from the state when “there is no project yet” to the state when “the project is no longer there”. According to the established practice, the states through which the project passes are called phases or stages. Each phase of the development and implementation of the project consists of the following stages:

Formation of an innovative plan (idea);

Study of investment opportunities;

Preparation of contact documentation;

Preparation of project documentation;

Construction and installation works;

Operation of the facility;

Monitoring of economic indicators.

The stage of formation of an innovative project, including an investment plan (idea), is understood as a conceived plan of action. At this stage, it is necessary to determine the subjects and objects of investments, their forms and sources, depending on the business intentions of the idea developer.

The subject of investments are commercial organizations and other business organizations that use investments.

Investment objects may include:

Enterprises, buildings, structures (fixed assets) under construction, reconstructed or expanded, intended for the production of new products and services;

Complexes of objects under construction or reconstructed, focused on solving one problem (program). In this case, the object of investment means a program - the production of new products (services) on existing production facilities within existing industries and organizations.

At this stage of the study of investment opportunities, the following is carried out:

Preliminary study of demand for products and services, taking into account exports and imports;

Assessment of the level of basic, current and forecast prices for products (services);

Preparation of proposals on the organizational and legal form of the project implementation and the composition of participants;

Evaluation of the proposed volume of investment according to the aggregated standards and a preliminary analysis of their commercial effectiveness;

Registration of initial permits;

Preparation of preliminary estimates for the sections of the feasibility study, in particular the assessment of the effectiveness of the project;

Approval of the results of the justification of investment opportunities;

Drawing up contract documentation for design and survey work.

The purpose of researching investment opportunities is to prepare an investment proposal for a potential investor. If there is no need for investors and all work is carried out at their own expense, a decision is made to finance the preparation of a feasibility study for the project.

The stage of the feasibility study of the project in full provides for:

Conducting a full-scale marketing research;

Preparation of a program for the release of products (realization of services);

Preparation of initial permit documentation;

Development of technical solutions, including the master plan;

Measures for environmental protection and civil defense;

Description of the enterprise management system, organization of work of workers and employees;

Assessment of risks associated with the implementation of the project;

Planning the timing of the project; assessment of the commercial effectiveness of the project (when using budget investments);

Formation of conditions for terminating the implementation of the project.

Making an investment decision is complicated by the following factors: the type of investment, the cost of the investment project, the multiplicity of available projects, limited financial resources, risk, etc. decisions must be made in an environment where there are a number of alternative or mutually independent projects. In this case, it is necessary to make a choice of one or more projects, based on some criteria.

Making decisions of an investment nature, like any other type of management activity, is based on the use of various formalized and non-formalized methods. Some kind universal method there is no one suitable for all situations.

All activities of the organization, especially its innovative component, are associated with a situation of uncertainty, which ultimately characterizes the random in the market and in the activities of the organization. The risk of innovative design is multifaceted in its manifestations and is a complex system of factors that manifests itself in the form of risk complexes that are individual for each project participant in quantitative and qualitative terms.

Innovative strategies determine the ways of competition that provide competitive advantages. At the same time, the effectiveness of innovation and innovation management is determined by the state scientific, technical and innovation policy. The state plays a key role in the development of innovative entrepreneurship.

An analysis of the problems of innovation management contributes to the creation of an optimal mechanism for increasing the competitiveness of the national economy, its industries, organizations, and goods.

Conclusion

Developers of innovative projects must know potential customers well, their plans, behavior and choose an appropriate marketing strategy. It is important to ensure that the project participants are aware of aspects of its design and implementation.

The risk can be reduced by conducting a design analysis of new products (commercial, technical, organizational, social, environmental, economic), which is important for the development of an innovative project.

In large innovative projects, timing risks. They can lead to a situation where project deadlines are not met, resulting in additional costs (delayed payments, loss of interest, etc.; increased project costs).

In this way, all innovative projects(research and venture capital) are subject to expertise, the results of which are taken into account when making a decision on financing projects.

1. The risk of innovative projects is the uncertainty associated with making decisions, the implementation of which occurs only over time.

2. The risk of lack of demand for innovative products - the probability of losses due to the possibility of the consumer's refusal from the manufacturer's products.

3. The reasons for the risk of not being in demand for products can be internal and external.

4. Tasks of risk management: detection; grade; impact on potential risks; risk control.

5. Decision-making options: risk avoidance; risk preference; indifference to risk.

Thus, the risk of an innovative project is a complex, multicomponent definition and is a set of risks that combine elements specifically related to a given innovative project implemented in the environment of a particular economic entity and traditional components characteristic of standard business processes. In addition, this type of risk is an integral part of the innovation project, and its characteristics are closely related both to the nature of the innovation project and to the characteristics of the subject producing it.

From the definition of the risk of an innovative project, it follows that the question of classifying this definition is legitimate, that is, the risk of an innovative project is an interconnected set of elements that can be attributed to one or another feature set according to certain criteria. Secondly, for each specific project and the subject producing it, there will be its own set of risks, but at the same time, the signs of their classification with respect to the totality of innovative projects will be the same, since they are set by the purpose of activity and the nature of innovative risk that are common to any of the innovative projects.

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1 Avsyanikov N.M. Innovation management. M., 2002.

2 Kovalev G.D. Fundamentals of innovation management. - M., 2005.

3 Research and development work (R&D), in English is rendered as Research & Development (R&D)) - a set of activities that includes both scientific research and the production of prototype and small-scale product samples, preceding the launch of a new product or system in industrial production. R&D spending is an important indicator of the company's innovativeness.

Research and development work can be carried out on request. In Russia, relations regarding the performance of research, development and technological work under the contract are regulated primarily by the provisions of Chapter 38 of the Civil Code of the Russian Federation. According to the regulatory definition: “Under a contract for the performance of scientific research, the contractor undertakes to carry out the stipulated terms of reference customer research, and under the contract for the implementation of development and technological works- develop a sample of a new product, design documentation for it or a new technology, and the customer undertakes to accept the work and pay for it"

4 DithellG. Project management. SPb., 2003.

5 Goldstein G.Ya. Strategic management. - Taganrog: Publishing House of TRTU, 2003.

6 Afonin I.V. Innovation management. M.:, 2005. innovative project/ I.P. Agafonova // Management in...

Entrepreneurial decision modeling risks innovative projects

Coursework >> Banking

Uncertainties and risk in management projects……………….5 The role of uncertainty in the optimization problem management entrepreneurial projects………………………………………….…..5 1.2. The role of the concept risk in management innovative projects…..8 2. Systematized...

innovative projects

Abstract >> Management

2.1 Risks innovative projects Risks innovative projects consider from two positions: according to classification criteria; and in basic ways management risks innovative projects. innovative projects relate...

Risks innovative processes

Abstract >> Management

reduction methods risks innovative projects; - creation of a system management risks in innovative activities. 4. Classification risks Pure risks To accept managerial...

The risk is possible when making decisions on the financing of scientific work related to the development of fundamentally new products. In market conditions, the dependence between the amount of risk and the financial capabilities of the investor increases.

Innovative projects belong to the category of the highest risk for investments, therefore, when seeking investment from commercial sources, the initiator of an innovative project needs to realistically assess his chances.

Depending on the degree of completion of research and the nature of R&D results, innovative projects are divided into the following categories:

1. Innovative projects related exclusively to the promotion of a finished innovative product.

2. Innovative projects with an unfinished implementation stage.

3. Innovative projects with an incomplete R&D stage.

4. Innovative projects with an unfinished stage of research.

5. Innovative projects with an incomplete stage of exploratory research.

As a rule, raising funds for innovative projects from commercial sources is possible if there is a real R&D result. Projects related to the promotion of a finished innovative product are the most attractive for investment. More risky projects are projects focused on the promotion of new technology. For such projects, it is more difficult to develop a marketing concept. The greatest problems with financing arise for projects with an incomplete R&D stage and an incomplete stage of exploratory research. When conducting exploratory studies, a negative result is possible, which may be the result of an incorrect direction of research, an erroneous statement of the problem, errors in calculations, as well as a situation where the study was not completed on time. When conducting R&D, errors are sometimes observed in estimating the timing of their completion; violation of standards and certification requirements; obtaining an unpatentable result.

The risk of innovative projects is the uncertainty that depends on the decisions made, the implementation of which occurs only over time.

Risk assessment is a part of any entrepreneurial decisions, including those related to innovative projects. Innovative projects depend on investments in individual industries, enterprises, and production.

When constructing a risk classification of innovative projects, it is advisable to use the block principle. The block principle of risk classification of innovative projects involves the distribution of risk into categories, subtypes, groups and subgroups and other levels. Risks can be external, internal and mixed.

External risks include general economic, market, socio-demographic, natural and climatic, information, scientific, technical and regulatory types of risk. At the same time, the reasons lie in the actions of the subjects of the external environment, as well as the internal one, therefore they are classified as mixed.

Mixed risks are associated with the activities of developers of innovative projects.

The bases for classifying economic internal risks of 87 enterprises are as follows:

1. If possible, foresight - foreseen and unforeseen (or similar in meaning - predictable and unpredictable).

2. Intention to create a risk situation (crimes, service mistakes, etc.).

3. For reasons of occurrence.

4. According to the place of discovery.

5. By the time of detection.

6. According to the originators.

7. Possibility of insurance.

8. By duration of action.

9. By detection methods.

10. By ways of minimizing the consequences.

11. By stages of the production cycle.

12. By stages of the technological process.

13. According to production conditions.

14. According to the stages of the life cycle of new products manufactured by the enterprise.

15. According to the location of the products.

16. According to the stages of the life cycle of products sold by the enterprise.

17. By types of products (by nomenclature, items of the assortment plan).

18. By type of organization of production.

19. According to the level of prices for manufactured products.

20. By type of product (industrial, intermediate, consumer goods or other grouping).

To manage innovation risks, it is advisable to systematize them.

In innovative projects, it is important to take into account the risk of lack of demand for new products, new design solutions, etc.

Internal causes depend on the activities of organizations. For example, insufficient qualification of the personnel; incorrect organization of the production process or incorrect organization of the supply of the enterprise with material resources, etc.

External causes, as a rule, do not directly depend on the activities of the developers of innovative projects, among them: engineering and design; solvency of the consumer; transport; demographic; and etc.

The time of occurrence of the risk of unclaimed products is closely related to its life cycle. The following stages of the product life cycle are distinguished:

Stage 1: development;

Stage 2: development;

Stage 3: production;

Stage 4: storage;

Stage 5: sales.

At each stage, there are specific causes of risk, methods of collecting information, methods and indicators of analysis, ways to avoid risk, ways to overcome and possible consequences of the risk of not being in demand for products.

The later economic and statistical analysis is carried out for each stage of the product life cycle, the later we will discover the risk that arose at its early stages, which can cause negative financial consequences for the enterprise.

By the time of detection of the risk of unclaimed products, three periods are distinguished: previous, current and subsequent.

Thus, economic risk is the possibility (probability) of losses arising from the adoption and implementation of economic decisions. Economic risks are associated primarily with the financing and costing of the project. They can arise due to erroneous planning, costing and estimates. The main consequence of such risks is the change in general project costs. The reasons for the occurrence are different, for example external influences(political upheavals, local legislation, etc., as well as internal factors; management errors) 88 .

The risks arising from the implementation of an innovative project in the scientific and industrial sphere are presented in Table 3.

Table 3. Risks arising from the implementation of an innovative project 89

	Causes
Technological solutions	Occurs due to features or errors in the chosen solution technology.
Influence of state bodies	It occurs if the project is a government order, as well as changes in the legal framework and the political situation.
Influence of examination bodies	Depends on the decision of the expert council.
Coordination and consistency of project development.	Occurs when there are counterparties for the development of the project.
Compliance with design standards	Occurs when the project deviates from GOST, OTU, etc.
Technical errors of the project	Bound to bugs technical solution(production.)
Approval of design results	Occurs at the stage of approval of the project, product by the State Commission or other bodies.
Design qualifications and resources	More possible when attracting counterparty organizations.

The considered classification of risks of innovative projects cannot be considered final, since, taking into account the peculiarities of innovative processes, it can be supplemented with other specific risk factors.

The following project risks may adversely affect the success of the project:

Unstable liquidity of the producer;

The occurrence of potential losses due to the abandonment of other projects in the course of the full loading of the manufacturer's existing capacities by the project being implemented;

The danger of a passive or negative attitude of the employees of the manufacturing enterprise to the ongoing project;

Risk of loss of know-how due to disloyalty of the customer and partners;

Risk of loss of the company's image.

Participants in the implementation of an innovative project face the problems of making an entrepreneurial decision in a risky situation.

Sometimes it seems that innovation is the concern of others, such as scientists, risk-loving businessmen, or young technology startups. Such associations can make it so difficult to understand the essence of innovation. We don't want to disturb the peace. We are uncomfortable with uncertainty. We are not looking for excuses to improve what seems to work anyway.

But while innovation can sometimes look risky, neglecting it can be fatal. Competitors are constantly looking for new ways to create market value or capture market share by squeezing your company out of it. They stand out and try to shake up the market through new business models, new products, new services.

Eighty-seven percent of the 1955 Fortune 500 companies no longer exist as a result of bankruptcies, mergers and acquisitions. A similar picture is possible in 60 years. And what about the remaining thirteen percent? They create the future rather than adapt to it.

For example, IBM was once known by full name International Business Machines and produced a wide range of products - from cash registers to computers. Now IBM specializes in software and services. Updates are a must for those who create the future. Failure to innovate is an increase in risk. And the essence of innovation is to create value by reducing risks and seizing opportunities.

A number of principles that can be adopted will reduce the risk of innovation.

Focus on strategically important areas

The independent and adaptive nature of innovation must be balanced with current priorities. Innovations that do not directly affect the mission and strategic vision of the company usually fail due to insufficient support for the market and not fully meeting its needs. Effective innovation is purposeful, specific, and strategic. Innovations that don't solve a real problem or don't meet customer needs often fail because they're out of date. Innovations aimed at solving “everything for everyone at once” fail because of their uncertainty.

American book maker Barnes & Noble's Nook Tablets sold poorly, failing to compete with similar products from competitors. Part of the failure is due to the fact that brick-and-mortar stores weren't ready to start making money selling tablets. Despite the demand for eBooks, the company decided to expand its sphere of influence, but it lacked the support of third-party manufacturers. As a result, the Nook tablets lost out to Apple's iPad and Amazon's Kindle because these products were better suited to the needs of the market, as well as the strategies and capabilities of their manufacturers.

Assess where your company is heading, what its mission, goals and strategic priorities are. What are the concerns of our consumers? What work do they need to do? What are priority areas development? What should your company be known for? Direct innovation to appropriate responses.

Learn to refuse

Not all products or services are worth endlessly offering or supporting, even if they are profitable. It may be more profitable to abandon products or services that show low growth or have a small market share in favor of more attractive opportunities. The resources freed up as a result can be used to invest in new initiatives that can bring big profits.

Eliminate customers, products, markets, and distribution channels that generate marginal or negative growth. Move resources to areas where value and efficiency are higher. Appoint your the best people and allocate the best resources to those areas where there are the greatest growth prospects, and do not cling to non-developing markets.

Decisive refusal requires answers to questions about each product and each service:

• Is the return on investment positive? Is this number growing year on year?
• Does this product or service contribute to the promotion of the company's strategic goals?
• Does this product or service contribute to the mission of the company?
• Is the market growing? If yes, is it possible to increase our company's market share?
• If we did not offer this product or this service, would we choose this market, this distribution channel or this business model in today's conditions?

If your answer to any of these questions is no, consider abandoning the product or service and moving resources to areas of higher potential. Do it yourself before the competition forces you (see Redesigning Decision-Making: Pentland Brands).

Encourage Learning

Learning is closely related to innovation and creativity. As new knowledge is acquired, the brain makes new connections, connects previously disparate concepts, and gains the ability to generate new ideas. It raises new questions and provides new knowledge. The value of education cannot be overestimated.

A child between two and five years old asks about 40,000 questions. He knows little about the world and is open to everything new. Support children's curiosity - learn continuously. Read books and articles from areas of knowledge unfamiliar to you, attend conferences, take online courses, and encourage colleagues to learn.

Don't rely on customer opinion

Your clients do some work, but they don't always understand exactly how to do it, and for this they need you. If you ask them how to solve their problem, you won't get far. You should understand what your customers need, but generally ignore their ready-made answers.

Henry Ford, founder of Ford Motor Co. and creator of the world's first mass-produced gasoline-powered car, believed that if he asked people what they needed to get from one point to another faster, the answer would be "a faster horse." Think outside the box, observe, adapt ideas from other technology fields and areas in order to come up with new ways to solve your customers' problems.

Compete in elite markets

Innovative products and services that drive competitors out of the market and change consumer behavior are often designed for narrowly focused purposes. To innovate, create a product for small customer groups first. Small markets often suffer from insecurity, but their representatives demand fewer features and lower performance. This will allow in the future to enter the traditional market and even completely change it. For example, at the beginning of the 20th century, excavators worked on a system of blocks and cables. Hydraulic excavators were developed half a century later and were first used on small jobs. Over the next 20 years, hydraulic excavator manufacturers entered the traditional market with improvements in technology and performance. In the 1960s, hydraulic excavators became so advanced that they could meet the needs of the traditional market. As these excavators matched the performance of conventional excavators, the focus was on reliability, then convenience, and then price.

Do not get tired to communicate and keep in touch

Keep in touch with authoritative experts in your industry and current clients. Have a dialogue, exchange ideas: this way you will expand your field of vision and stay up to date with the latest trends. And while gaining knowledge, share it with colleagues and business partners. Keep in touch with non-specialists who can think outside the box. This will also allow you to specify more tricky questions and broaden your horizons. Conduct in-company seminars, chat with colleagues over coffee, attend conferences, all of which will give you a fresh perspective.

Use failure

A better approach to innovation is to slowly and incrementally test the market and the effectiveness of your product or service. The result can be a relatively low-cost failure with low investment and learning opportunities.

Eric Rees' concept of a minimum viable product is great way probe the market. The bottom line is to present a product that is at least ready to be released to the market in order to measure its performance, assimilate the necessary information and possibly repeat these steps. A similar method is the so-called rapid development software, but classic examples are the Gmail service from Google: being initially simple, but generally unique service, it has gradually evolved.

IBM founder Thomas Watson is credited with a phrase that goes something like this: "The fastest way to success is to double the number of failures." That's why don't be afraid to fail through small test runs, absorb the necessary information and apply it to the next run.

Choose the right metrics

As the old management adage goes, what gets done gets measured. Choosing the right metrics is essential to focusing and quantifying the success of a company.

Balance leading and falling behind. Make sure each metric is simple, clear, and actionable. Avoid metrics that reflect the illusion of progress, such as just the number of page views or the number of likes on Facebook. Consider why your client hired you. Focus on results and consequences. Determine what exactly needs to be measured to determine the level of progress. The number of indicators should be in the range from three to seven.

Consider unexpected successes

Any market periodically throws up surprises, so pay attention to unexpected successes. Why was it sold more units certain product than expected? Why did our market share turn out to be larger than expected? Why did a certain segment of the market, which we did not take into account, purchase this or that product? What can this lead to? Answers to these questions can be given additional features for growth. It is likely that the proposed product is not being used as intended, or maybe it hooked a certain segment of consumers with something, or someone else discovered its value.

When the department store chain Macy's began selling home appliances, profits and sales increased significantly. Chain leaders were concerned that 60% of the profit comes from the sale household appliances and not clothes. Instead of seizing this opportunity, they tried to limit sales of home appliances. Competitive chain Bloomingdale's seized this chance and created a whole market for home appliances.

When identifying unexpected successes, think about how they could be used to grow the company and where they can lead it. Seize the opportunity to enter new markets or meet the needs of current customers in new ways.

In many cases associated with the development new technology and technologies, search for reserves to reduce the cost of production and increase labor productivity. A distinctive feature of innovative projects is more high level risk compared to other projects. Projects focused on the development and implementation of new products and technologies always have uncertainty in terms of achieving economic results, therefore they have great risks.

Innovation risk is the probability of losses arising from an entrepreneurial firm investing in the production of new goods and services that may not find the expected demand in the market.

Innovation risk is associated with the financing and application of scientific and technological innovations.

Occurs in the following situations:

• when introducing a cheaper method of producing a good or service compared to those already in use. Such investments will generate temporary windfall profits for the entrepreneurial firm as long as it is the sole owner of the technology. In this situation, the firm faces only one type of risk - a possible incorrect assessment of the demand for the product;
• when creating a new product or service on old equipment. In this case, the risk of incorrect assessment of the demand for a new product or service is added to the risk of inconsistency in the quality of the product or service due to the use of physically and / or obsolete equipment;
• in the production of a new product or service using new equipment and technology. In this situation, innovation risk includes:
  • the risk that a new product or service may not find a buyer;
  • risk of inconsistency of new equipment and technology necessary requirements to produce a new product or service;
  • the risk of the impossibility of selling the created equipment, as it is not suitable for the production of other products, in case of failure.

The creators of new equipment and technologies can take a slow and cautious path (partial modernization of existing structures and technologies), in which the risk is minimal, but the results are usually ineffective, or they can take a more difficult and risky path, focusing on modern achievements in the field of scientific and technological development. technical progress. This path is more difficult and risky, but it also leads to the creation of fundamentally new technologies, the latest generation of equipment, which has significant competitive advantages.

Thus, innovation risk can be characterized as the probability of losses arising when an entrepreneurial firm invests in the production of new goods and services, in the development of new equipment and technologies that may not find the expected demand on the market, as well as when investing in the development of managerial innovations that do not bring the expected effect.

Often when implementing investment projects innovation risk comes with a range of risks (see figure).

The level of innovation risks is quite high. The possibility of losses and failures in this area is much higher than in all others. Suffice it to say that, on average, only four out of ten innovative projects end successfully, the remaining six, according to statistics, are obviously doomed to failure. That is why (firms involved in the development and implementation of innovative projects) use the highest rates when planning their financial and economic activities. At the same time, the state, in order to stimulate innovative technologies can provide venture capital companies or provide financial assistance in terms of projects that are of strategic importance for the state.

Innovative projects belong to the category of the highest investment risk. Most commercial financial institutions and banks do not invest in research and innovation, considering the presence of this condition in the project as a stop factor. Basically, the financing of this sphere comes from budgetary sources, from venture capital and special funds. R&D spending is, of course, one of the necessary components for the successful development of enterprises, but most enterprises around the world are quite cautious about fundamentally new developments, preferring to follow the path of minor improvements to existing products / technologies. Only large corporations are able to make significant investments in innovation. All this also applies to Russian enterprises, but adjusted for functioning in a crisis. That is, the percentage of domestic enterprises that are able to invest in innovative projects is low. Therefore, when looking for investments from commercial sources, the initiator of an innovative project must realistically assess his chances. The likelihood of receiving funds from these sources increases with the degree of readiness of innovation for implementation. If we divide innovative products according to the degree of completion of research and the nature of the R&D result, then we can get the following categories of innovative projects:

Group Advanced New Product/

product / technology technology

Innovation projects, 1. 1 1. 2

related exclusively

with the promotion of finished

innovative product

Innovation projects 2. 1 2. 2

with incomplete stage

implementation

Innovation projects 3. 1 3. 2

with incomplete stage

Innovation projects 4. 1 4. 2

with incomplete stage

Innovation projects 5. 1 5. 2

with incomplete stage

exploratory research

In practice, raising funds for an innovative project from commercial sources becomes possible only when there is a real R&D result, there are practically no doubts about the possibility of its implementation and marketing. From the point of view of investors, projects of categories 1. 1 and 2. 1 are the most attractive for investments. The risk is much higher for projects focused on the promotion of a new product / technology. When developing and implementing such projects, many decisions have to be made on an intuitive level, since in most cases necessary information missing. For example, it is very difficult to develop a marketing concept for such projects: errors are quite likely when forecasting demand volumes, sales opportunities, positioning goods on the market, and setting prices. However, projects belonging to groups 1. 2 and 2. 2, if there are good arguments for the investor, can receive the necessary investments. Category 4 and 5 projects have the lowest probability of financing from commercial sources. It is better to look for funds for these projects in innovation and venture funds. The innovation risk of these projects is significantly increased for the investor due to the fact that, in accordance with Russian legislation, the customer bears the risk of accidental failures in non-fulfillment of contracts, which is recognized as an essential element of contractual relations for R&D, due to their creative nature (see Civil Code, Article 769 , item 3). In principle, a different distribution of the risk of accidental failures is allowed by agreement of the parties, but it should be borne in mind that Art. 775 and 776 of the Civil Code, which determine the consequences of the accidental impossibility of fulfilling the contract, limit the discretion of these rules.

Managing the risks associated with the introduction and promotion of innovations to the market is quite difficult, especially considering the very a high proportion uncertainty. Nevertheless, the analysis of innovative risks and their systematization can already provide tools for risk management. To date, a lot of classifications of innovative risks have been created. However, many of them suffer from excessive detail. For an investor, in fact, only those risks that lead to the loss or decrease in the volume of planned profits or incomes matter. This classification reflects the main risks associated with the creation and promotion of innovations.

The main risks associated with the stages of creation and promotion of innovation

2 Patenting can be carried out at later stages

In principle, on the basis of this scheme, it is possible to carry out an assessment of innovative risks, considering the presence in the project of measures that reduce these risks. Risks can be assessed using logical scales or a scoring system. Most risk assessment methods are based on a scoring system: the expert puts down a certain number of points for each of the risk groups or for each risk in a separate group, then the risks are weighed, and the overall risk assessment of the project is displayed. Based on this assessment, a conclusion is made about the risk group of the project and the feasibility of its financing. The risk assessment of the project must necessarily be reflected in the calculations for the project: all project indicators must be calculated taking into account the risk adjustment.

The purpose of risk assessment should be the ability of project authors to predict in advance all types of risks that they may encounter, the sources of these risks and the moment they occur. And after assessing the risks, develop measures to reduce these risks and minimize the losses that they can cause.

The complexity of the calculations and the accuracy of the probability calculations up to the second decimal place are not an important point. For the competition jury, the most important point will be the proof that the most dangerous risks are identified and there is a program to minimize them, and that other risks were also taken into account in the process of preparing the project.

It is recommended to evaluate all quantitative indicators by expert means, i.e., the evaluation is carried out by several people (experts participating in the project), based on personal experience. Then these estimates are added up and divided by the number of experts (the arithmetic mean is determined).

Here is one of the most simple and effective methods project risk assessment - risk scoring method, and an example of using this method.

For practical use this method, the following sequence is recommended:

1. Identify simple risks;

2. Assess the probability of occurrence of events related to each simple risk;

3. Determine the share of each simple risk in the totality;