Political forecasting: methods. Political forecasting

Traditionally widely used in political forecasting:

1. extrapolation method(an imaginary continuation into the future of certain existing political processes).

The use of this method is based on the fact that most political phenomena are actually processes, that is, phenomena that last in time and have their own trajectory of movement, which can be established by knowing the chain of past and present events.

2. analogy method. It is actively used in political forecasting based on similarity of conditions which caused this or that event in the past, allows us to draw a conclusion about the possibility of an event in the future.

The analogy method can be used in forecasting just right for predicting events or individual phenomena.

3. Scenario method provides a description of possible future events in a region or around the world. It is used primarily to describe the pattern of development conflict situations, in the preparation of political decisions designed for a more or less long term.

Drawing up scenarios is always associated with an assessment of events and trends in their deployment, and the assessment expresses a subjective attitude towards the phenomenon on the part of the one who does it. Therefore, there may be several scenarios that relate to the prediction of the same phenomenon. The choice of one or another scenario requires the inclusion of an expert assessment in the forecasting activity, which is obtained by polling scientists.

4.Modeling method turns out to be extremely useful in political analysis and forecasting.

Political forecasting- the process of developing a scientifically based judgment about a possible scenario for the development of political events in the future, alternative ways and terms for its implementation, as well as identifying specific recommendations for the use of practical measures in real-life conditions.

Areas of use:

1.Economic and political.

2. Socio-political.

3.State-legal.

4. Political and ideological.

5. Military-political.

6. Foreign policy.

7. Internal political.

Basic principles:

1. Consistency.

2. Consistency.

3. Continuity.

4. Credibility.

5.Optimality

6. Alternative.

7. Profitability.

8. Analogy.

Forecasts are divided into:

2.Regulatory.

Beyond the warning period:

Operative - up to 1 month.

Short term - from 1 month to 1 year.

Medium-term - from 1 to 5 years.

Long-term - from 5 to 15 years.

Extra-long-term - for a period of more than 15 years.

For spheres:

1. Internal political.

2. Foreign policy.

The main stages of political forecasting:

1. Forward-looking orientation.

2. Building a basic model.

3. Collection of forecast background data.

5. Evaluation of the reliability and accuracy of the forecast.

6. Building a search model.

The main methods of political forecasting:

1. Behind the sign of the information base:

factual;

expert;

combined.

2. According to the principle of information processing:

statistical;

analogies;

direct expert assessments;

expert assessments with feedback;

leading

3. Behind the sign of the implementation apparatus:

Extrapolation;

Interpolation;

Factor analysis;

Correlation analysis;

Mathematical analogies;

Historical analogies;

Expert questioning;

Expert analysis.

End of work -

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Political science as a science, its subject and place in modern social science

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The principle of alternativeness is associated with the possibility of developing political life and its individual links along different trajectories, with different interconnections and structural relationships. The need to build alternatives, i.e. determining possible ways of developing political relations always arises in the transition from imitation of existing processes and trends to foreseeing their future. Alternative cannot be "mixed" with the probabilistic nature of forecasting. Probability is a measure of confirmation of the forecast, based on reliable knowledge of the laws, as well as initial and final conditions. Alternativeness comes from the assumption of the possibility of qualitatively various options development of political events. The main task of the practical implementation of the principle of alternativeness is to separate feasible development options from options that, under the prevailing and foreseeable conditions, cannot be implemented. This implies a distinction between individual alternatives according to the likelihood of their practical implementation (3, p. 93). It should be noted that each alternative in the development of the political process has its own set of problems that must be taken into account when forecasting.

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The principle of systematic forecasting means that, on the one hand, policy is considered as a single object, and on the other hand, as a set of relatively independent directions (blocks) of forecasting.

A systematic approach involves building a forecast based on a system of methods and models characterized by a certain hierarchy and sequence. Under the consistency of methods and models of forecasting in the field of politics, one should understand their totality. It allows you to develop a consistent and consistent forecast (for each direction) of political life. However, it is practically impossible to build an integral system of political forecasting models at this stage, at this stage, since this is associated with a number of methodological difficulties. The solution of the problem can be achieved on the basis of unification of block models, computational methods of solution, creation of an information data bank. The specifics of individual political objects can be adequately expressed only when as close as possible to the internal features of individual forecasting blocks, the most rational is the use of the “block” principle in the formation of a comprehensive forecast of political development.

The principle of continuity of forecasting. The main requirement of the principle follows from the name itself. The task of the subject developing the forecast is to continuously correct the forecast developments as new information becomes available. For example, any long-term forecast in the original version is inevitably large-scale. Over time, this or that tendency manifests itself more clearly and reveals itself from many sides. In this regard, the information that comes to the forecaster and contains new data makes it possible to more accurately predict the onset of a political event: the need to convene a congress of a political party, to hold various events. political actions, rallies, strikes, etc. (4, p. 157).

As an example of continuous forecasting, one should mention the developments of the Institute for Socio-Political Research of the Russian Academy of Sciences.

The principle of verification (verifiability) is aimed at determining the reliability of the developed forecast. Verification can be direct, indirect, consequential, duplicate, inverse.

All these forecasting principles cannot be taken in isolation, in isolation from each other.

The principles of forecasting are implemented through specific methods of scientific and forecasting research. The study of complex socio-political phenomena also determines the complex nature of the scientific methods necessary for this. “Not only the result of the research,” wrote K. Marx, “but the path leading to it must be true.” Acceptance of a scientifically based forecast depends entirely on what method or system of methods underlies the predictive study. The expansion of the scope of forecasting in connection with the modernization of Russia leads to an increase in the number of forecasting methods used in studies of the future. There is reason to believe that the development of new forecasting methods will lead to the emergence of new special disciplines, for example, political forecasting, which has as its task the study of patterns and principles for the development of political forecasts.

To date, more than 150 forecasting methods have been formed, both of a general nature and applied in narrow areas of knowledge. The main question is to determine the possible scope of each method and choose the most effective in each specific case.

Often in political science, methods are used that have been developed by certain scientists and are successfully applied by them. Let's take a closer look at some of the methods.

The method of collective expert evaluation. Its essence consists in determining the consistency of opinions of experts on promising directions for the development of domestic or foreign policy or their individual areas, previously formulated by individual specialists, as well as in assessing aspects of the development of political relations, which cannot be determined by other methods (for example, experiment).

The method of collective peer review involves, as it were, four steps:

• * working groups are created to organize expert assessments. Their functions include conducting a survey, processing materials and analyzing the results of a collective expert assessment. The working group appoints experts. They provide answers to the questions raised regarding the prospects for the development of certain areas of domestic or foreign policy (the number of experts involved in developing a forecast can vary from 10 to 100-150 people, depending on the complexity of the object);
• * before organizing a survey of experts, it is necessary to clarify the main directions for the development of political processes and events, as well as to draw up a matrix that reflects the general goal, sub-goals and means to achieve them. The means to achieve the goal are directions scientific research and developments, the results of which can be used to achieve political goals. Further, before organizing the survey, it is necessary to develop questions for experts (they must be compiled according to a certain structural-hierarchical scheme, i.e. from broad questions to narrow ones, from complex to simple ones);
• * during the survey of experts, it is necessary to ensure the unambiguity of understanding of individual issues, as well as the independence of experts' judgments. The pressure of "leading" opinion must be excluded;
• * processing of expert evaluation materials is carried out, which characterize the generalized opinion and the degree of consistency of individual expert evaluations. The processing of these expert assessments serves as the starting material for the synthesis of predictive hypotheses and options for the development of political events.

The final score is defined either as the average judgment, or as the arithmetic mean of the scores of all experts, or as a normalized weighted average of the score.

Collective generation of ideas - the method of "brainstorming" - is a widely used method in the study of the future. Its essence lies in the actualization of the creative potential of specialists during the “brainstorming” of a problem situation, which first realizes the generation of ideas and subsequent destruction, criticism of these ideas with the formulation of counter-ideas. The brainstorming method is also called the method of destructive related evaluation. There are a number of steps involved in working with this method.

Delphi method. It is characterized by three features that distinguish it from the usual methods of group interaction of experts. These features include:

• a) anonymity of experts;
• b) using the results of the previous round of surveys;
• c) statistical characteristic of the group response.

Building scripts. According to the well-known Austrian forecaster E. Jancz, script writing means a method that tries to establish a logical sequence of events in order to show how, based on the existing (or any other given) situation, the future state can develop step by step. In the script verbal description predicted situation, special attention should be paid to the binding of events to the time grid, to the connections between events, to critical points where small impacts can have a disproportionately strong effect. Among Russian political scientists, this is perhaps the most common method of forecasting, on the basis of which one can more or less accurately predict the development of political events in our country.

Scenario development forces the researcher to deal with details and processes that he could easily miss if he were limited to abstract considerations. The scenario should be written in such a way that after reading it, the main goal of the work being done in the light of the political tasks for the forecast period becomes clear.

The sequence of actions when writing a script can be as follows: definition of a time interval - formulation of an event - verbal interpretation of the meaning of events - quantitative assessment on an escalation scale. Having adopted this order, one can, for example, draw a graph of the real course of interaction (between countries - a foreign policy forecast - or participants in a political event within a country), where time intervals will be plotted along the abscissa axis, and a scale of events in categories previously developed and quantitatively evaluated. Goals and policies should be displayed in terms of needs and interests.

One of the most common and most developed among the totality of forecasting methods are extrapolation methods.

How far can one extrapolate in time without exceeding some forecast error admissible for this or that problem? There is an opinion that for political events the extrapolation limit is approximately 5-10 years. To avoid gross errors in forecasting, he practices complex extrapolation, which is a combination of mathematical and statistical calculations using the conclusions of probability theory, limit theory, game theory, set theory - the entire arsenal of modern mathematics and cybernetics.

A common method for describing any processes, events, phenomena is modeling. This is a method of research in which not the objects themselves are studied, but their models. In this regard, the knowledge obtained "with the help of modeling cannot be absolutely true, i.e. it is impossible to achieve a complete analogy between the objects of study and its model. In addition, one must take into account the fact that events that are strikingly similar, but occurring in different historical environment can lead to very different results.

Designing a model based on a preliminary study of the object and highlighting its essential characteristics, experimental and theoretical analysis of the model, comparison of the results with the data of the object, and correction of the model constitute the content of the modeling method. If extrapolation usually produces, in a certain sense, a “bold” continuation of the dynamic series for the future, then when forecasting with the help of a model for the future, the existing mechanism of the process is transferred to a certain extent.

The choice of one or another method of forecasting political processes and events depends on the target grouping of forecasts, on its timing and time for development.

political forecasting international foreign

Federal Agency for Education

State educational institution

Higher professional education

Vladimir State University

Department of Sociology

Subject: Political science

On the topic: Political forecasting

Completed: st.gr. zMn-204

Shirokoryadov A.A.

Lecturer: Baranova L.M.

Vladimir 2010

Introduction 2

Conclusion 14

List of used literature 16

Introduction

Forecasting is a forward-looking idea of ​​reality. It is a kind of human intellectual activity, one of the functions of human consciousness. The main reason why a person engages in forecasting is that there are phenomena whose future he does not know, but this future is important for the decisions he makes now. Therefore, a person strives to mentally penetrate into this future. And it is natural for a person to strive to reduce the level of this uncertainty.

Now the main issue for us is the future of Russia. But it is so vague that it fetters the energy and initiative of people. To know the future of their country, to overcome the oppressive uncertainty, people are developing various programs. These are, for example, “How do we equip Russia” by A. Solzhenitsyn, “Constitution” by A. Sakharov, programs of various parties and movements, etc.

It is with the help of the forecast that the subject of management can already today determine which of the programs is the most optimal. A forecast is understood as a scientifically based judgment about the possible states of an object in the future, about alternative ways and terms for achieving them. The process of developing forecasts is called forecasting.

Forecasting is a special scientific study of processes, phenomena, as a result of which, from already known information about the past and present of the object under study, they get an idea of ​​its possible future state.

Essence of political forecasting

The term "prognosis" (from the Greek "prognosis") means foresight, prediction. Forecasting is the development of a forecast.

Forecasting is usually understood in a broad and narrow sense. In broad terms, this is the development of a probable judgment about the state of a phenomenon in the future. In a narrow one, this is a special scientific study of the prospects for the development of a phenomenon, mainly with quantitative estimates and indicating more or less certain periods of change in this phenomenon. According to B.I. Krasnov, “in the very general view forecasting is a leading reflection of reality.

The main reason why a person engages in forecasting is that there are phenomena whose future he does not know, but they are important for the decisions he makes today. Therefore, he seeks to penetrate his intellect into the future. Each forecast is designed to avoid the undesirable outcomes of likely developments and accelerate the likely development in the desired direction, as well as to adjust to the inevitable.

Therefore, forecasting as one of the forms of scientific foresight is in the social sphere in conjunction with goal setting, planning, programming, design, and management. Where objects are uncontrollable, especially in nature, unconditional prediction takes place in order to adjust actions to the expected state of the object.

Forecasting in the social sphere as a scientific prediction, prediction of the future state of an object requires information about the past and present state of this object, about its development trends. But even with the availability of initial data, we are not able to make a forecast if we do not understand the social and economic relationships within the process, object, phenomenon. Therefore, forecasting must be based on a certain theory. Without a theory, it will be a simple collection of information and various assumptions.

Forecasting is practiced in all spheres of society. One of its directions is political forecasting, the object of which is politics. As you know, a distinction is made between internal and external politics. Each of the two main policy areas has its own specifics. Therefore, forecasting in the field of politics comes in two forms: domestic political and foreign policy.

To identify the essence of political forecasting, it is necessary to characterize its features and specifics. This specificity is primarily manifested in the originality of the forecasting object, and then the associated features of the goals and objectives of developing forecasts, as well as the approach to choosing forecasting methods.

The object of political forecasting is very wide and complex in structure. Therefore, the concept of “political forecasting” means a multifaceted and diverse activity in conducting special scientific research and developing forecasts for numerous policy components, in the field of their versatile relationships and interactions, as well as in the field of relationships with other spheres of society: economic, social, spiritual.

Political forecasts are developed in order to increase the efficiency and effectiveness of decisions made, to avoid an undesirable course of events in various areas of political life and in areas of policy impact on the economy, social and spiritual spheres.

In general, in the area under consideration, the most important task of forecasting is to identify promising political problems and the best ways to solve them in order to optimize the management of political processes, as well as to anticipate certain political events, both desirable and undesirable.

The typology of political forecasts is based on various criteria depending on the goal, objectives, objects, the nature of the lead period, methods and other factors.

On the basis of the problem-target criterion, that is, depending on what the forecast is being developed for, there are search and normative forecasts.

According to the lead period - the period of time for which the forecast is calculated - there are operational (up to 1 month), short-term (up to 1 year), medium-term (usually up to 5 years), long-term (up to 15-20 years) and long-term (outside of long-term) .

Types and methods of political forecasting

Each forecast is developed with the aim of achieving accelerated development of society in the desired direction and avoiding undesirable results. Forecast, as new knowledge, includes, on the one hand, knowledge about the properties of objects that actually exist, observed or unobservable during the forecasting period, and on the other hand, knowledge about the properties of objects that are not yet available during the forecasting period. The forecast creates an ideal image, model, description of probable processes, events.

One of important directions Forecasting social development is political forecasting, the object of which is politics (internal and external), and the subject is the knowledge of the possible states of political events, phenomena, processes.

In the dictionary - reference book we read: political forecasting - the process of developing a scientifically based judgment about the probabilistic development of political events, the ways and timing of its implementation. Forecasting is a form of foresight. Its main goal is to increase the efficiency and effectiveness of decisions made, the development of specific recommendations for practical activities. The main goals of forecasting are: to avoid undesirable results of the development of events, to adapt to the inevitable; accelerate the likely development of a particular phenomenon in the desired direction.

The practice of forecasting and its theoretical understanding have shown that in the implementation of this activity it is necessary to be guided by certain principles. The most important of them are the principles of alternativeness and verification.

The principle of alternativeness in this case means that when developing a forecast, all possible directions for the development of an object, various options for turning an existing opportunity into reality, must be provided for, justified.

The principle of verification (verifiability) means that the forecast must contain the possibility of its confirmation or refutation. A forecast that can neither be confirmed nor refuted is useless. Verification is an empirical verification of theoretical positions by comparing them with observed objects.

Currently, political forecasting has a number of methods. Among them are extrapolation, modeling, expertise, collective idea generation, scenario building, predictive graphs, and other groups of methods. Each group contains several ways to develop forecasts.

Some political scientists subdivide the methods of political forecasting into objective and speculative. Objective - these are methods that are based on existing trends established by experience. In this case, the decision is made on the same basis. These methods include extrapolation, modeling, expertise, and some others. Speculative - these are methods that are based on intuitive reasoning, on understanding the foundations of science and culture. Such methods include collective idea generation (“brainstorming”), script writing, predictive graphs, and many others.

Types of political forecasting

Political forecasting is part of practical politics. There are many predictions. In order not to get confused in their flow, it is required to have a certain typology of forecasts. It can be based on various criteria depending on the goals, objectives, objects, nature, lead time, methods, etc. The problem-target criterion is fundamental: what is the forecast for? In this regard, two types of forecasts are distinguished: exploratory and normative.

A search forecast is a definition of possible states of a political phenomenon, process, event in the future. Such a forecast answers the question: what is most likely to happen if the existing trends continue?

A normative forecast is a determination of the ways and timing of achieving the possible states of the object of political forecasting, taken as a goal. Such a forecast answers the question: what are the ways to achieve the desired?

Among other criteria for classifying political forecasting, we highlight the following.

Yes, in accordance with period, for which forecasting is designed, there are the following types of it:

1. Operational(up to a month)

2. Short term(from 1 month to 1 year)

3. medium term(from 1 year to 5 years)

4. Long term(from 5 to 15 years)

5. Extra long term(over 15 years)

In accordance with his orientation:

domestic political

foreign policy

Stages of political forecasting

The procedure of political forecasting involves the following main stages:

1. Pre-forecast orientation, including the definition of the object, problem, tasks, time, working hypotheses and methods.

2. Determination of the forecast background, i.e. selection of the main factors influencing the development of the object under study.

3. Predictive retrospection - a study of the history of the development of the object.

4. Compilation of the initial model, i.e. scorecards. Parameters that reflect the structure and nature of the political object.

5. Predictive diagnosis - a study of the main trends in the development of the object.

6. Development of a forecast of a political object and its background.

7. Assessment of the degree of reliability and constant adjustment of the developed forecasts in connection with the emergence of new, previously unaccounted for factors and trends in political development, the rejection of unjustified options.

So, the role of forecasting in political life is very significant.

Forecasting is based on the principles of alternativeness, complexity, continuity and verification (verifiability).

Methods of political forecasting

Methods of political forecasting are: methods of collective expert evaluation, collective generation of ideas (“brainstorming”), Delphi method, scenario building and predictive graphs, predictive extrapolation method, modeling method.

The most common and popular in the world of policy forecasting technologies is currently the method predictive scenarios (scenario engineering), proven to be viable and effective. In Russia in recent years, many scenarios of political development have also begun to appear - in journalism, scientific papers, documents political parties. The breadth of application of the scenario method, the high level of "demand" for it contrasts sharply with its insufficient scientific elaboration.

A detailed definition of the scenario method is given by domestic researchers S. Beshelev and F. Gurevich: “A scenario,” they emphasize, “is a logical and plausible description of future events with an estimate of the time of their implementation and the connections that may result in these events. It is drawn up in order to clarify the future conditions under which the problem will be solved.

Another approach is situational” involves the interpretation of the concept of “scenario” with an emphasis not on the dynamic, but on the statistical state of the system under study and its environment in the future. The “situational” approach understands a scenario not as a causal sequence itself, but as a picture of a future situation that arises as a result of the implementation of such an event sequence.

Scenario technique As a forecasting method, it relies on two most important interrelated methodological prerequisites, which can be designated as:

1) the principle of "openness of the future"

2) the principle of alternative future.

The openness of the future means its dependence on our actions in the present.

One of the main tasks of scripting is to discover the factors that are under our control, the factors that are embedded in the current political processes.

For predicting political processes, knowledge of the political situation is of great importance, i.e. a set of factors and circumstances determined by the state of relations between various political forces - political parties, social groups and the conditions under which they interact.

Also one of the most important ways modern socio-economic and political forecasting is extrapolation. Its essence lies in the fact that reliable conclusions on one part of a phenomenon apply to another part, to the phenomenon as a whole, to the future of this phenomenon. Extrapolation is the leading method of forecasting the future based on existing, current trends.

Among the speculative methods, consider brainstorming, that is, the method of sudden ideas (according to the domestic terminology "brainstorming"). The first stage of brainstorming is the generation of a large number of ideas in a short period of time and in a small group (5-12 people). At this stage, no assessment or comment is made about the feasibility of these ideas, which could lead to premature rejection. After this creative stage is completed, the ideas are combined and evaluated, additional possibilities are created for the options for likely events, then the most important predictive ideas are highlighted.

The specific methods by which political forecasting is conducted are formed by combining a number of methods.

Everyone who develops scientific forecasts and applies them in practical politics, one way or another, voluntarily or involuntarily, is guided by the principle of cognizability of reality. Consequently, materialistic epistemology serves as the methodological basis for forecasting.

The objective basis for predicting political events is that their future lies in the present, but only in the possibility. Therefore, scientific forecasts of political events, phenomena and processes are meaningful, conscious opportunities for the development of the political life of society, taken in their theoretical validity.

Possibility exists objectively in reality itself as a hidden tendency of its further development. Therefore, there is no other way to predict the future, except for the knowledge of the possibilities, trends, concluded in the present state of the political system. Thus, a scientific forecast reveals a future political event as something objectively determined by the previous course of things, that is, something determined, predetermined by the laws of development and functioning of the political system.

It is usually believed that behind the new phenomena, facts and processes of the development of the present is the future, that they have a future. However, it can be stated with certainty only taking into account the action of the laws of development of political forecast objects discovered by science. In other words, the most important basis for forecasting is the operation of the objective laws of a certain area of ​​reality, in this case political.

Political life is one of the spheres of life of people, society. And it, like other spheres, has essential, stable, repetitive and necessary connections and relationships, that is, objective patterns.

Laws that operate in the socio-political field appear as trends or opportunities that do not always turn into reality. This, of course, makes it difficult to develop political forecasts.

The systemic structure of the political sphere of society is also an objective basis for forecasting. Any system is a set of interconnected and interacting elements that form a certain integrity, unity. The properties of a system are not reduced to the sum of the properties of its components. The system actively influences its components and transforms them according to its own nature. At the same time, a change in some elements can lead to a certain change in the entire system. The system is hierarchical in its essence: each of its elements, in turn, can be considered as a system, and the system under study itself is only one of the components of a wider system. All this must be taken into account when setting the goals and objectives of forecasting within the framework of the functioning and development of the political system, when developing forecasts and using them in practical politics.

Conclusion

The main problem of political forecasting is still the fundamental possibility of a researcher to foresee the course of political development with a sufficiently high degree of probability. The discrepancy between intentions and results of their implementation is found in all types of activity, but in politics it, perhaps, looks like a law. Nowhere so often and so strikingly far do the original goals and what results from their implementation diverge.

In politics, there are many unstable, unstable processes. Minor, random political events (leakage of information, death of a political leader) lead to the deepest political upheavals. Therefore, what is conceived and planned in politics, which could be the basis for confident forecasting, very often turns out to be in the opposite, unexpected way. Determinism, which is an indispensable condition of scientific foresight and an inevitable consequence of a rational model of development, in politics is reduced to a property that manifests itself only in individual cases.

The peculiarities of political forecasting force analysts to constantly expand the methodological base of research, paying attention to all kinds of non-traditional approaches, intuition, individual and collective experience of political behavior, a selection of historical analogies and momentary political expectations. In this situation, political forecasting itself turns into a methodology for a special impact on political reality in order to initiate the desired changes in it.

In conclusion, I would like to say that today the question of political forecasting of the future of Russia is especially relevant. What goal to go for, what ideals it strives for, in what ways - all these questions need not momentary answers, but scientifically sound ones, it is the political sphere that determines the main directions of all other spheres of public life.

Bibliography

"Political Science: Dictionary-Reference" M.L. Vasilik, M.S. Vershinin and others - M., 2000.- P. 229.

Yu. I. Matveenko “Political science. Political analysis and forecast.” RAGS, 2009. 64 p.

G. R. Latfullin, N. V. Novichkov "Political organization" St. Petersburg, 2007. 656 p.

Internet resource http://mno.ucoz.ru

A. S. Panarin "Global Political Forecasting" Algorithm, 2002. 352 p.

Under the methods of political forecasting, we mean a system of rules and methodological techniques used to obtain comprehensive prognostic conclusions regarding the future development of political events (situations). Any method must be based on some theoretical background- a set of special knowledge systematized in a certain way (theory, hypotheses, empirical models, etc.)

The study of complex socio-political phenomena also determines the complex nature of the scientific methods necessary for this. Not only the result of the investigation, but also the path leading to it must be true. The quality of the accepted forecast, the degree of its scientific validity depends entirely on what method or system of methods underlies the forecasting study. AT modern Russia the expansion of the field of forecasting in connection with the modernization of the entire way of life leads to an increase in the number of forecasting methods used in studies of the future.

To date, more than 150 forecasting methods have been formed in world practice, both general and particular. The difficulty lies in determining the possible scope of each method and choosing the most effective one. Let's consider some prognostic methods in more detail. The method of collective expert evaluation. Its essence is to determine the consistency of experts' opinions on promising directions for the development of domestic or foreign policy, previously formulated by individual specialists, as well as to assess aspects of the development of political relations, which cannot be determined by other methods (for example, experiment).

The method of collective peer review involves four steps:

• * working groups are created to organize expert assessments. Their functions include conducting a survey, processing materials and analyzing the results of a collective expert assessment. The working group appoints experts, they provide answers to the questions raised regarding the prospects for the development of certain areas of domestic or foreign policy (the number of experts involved in developing a forecast can vary from 10 to 100-150 people, depending on the complexity of the object);
• * before organizing a survey of experts, it is necessary to clarify the main directions for the development of political processes and events, as well as to draw up a matrix that reflects the general goal, sub-goals and means to achieve them. The means of achieving the goal are understood as areas of scientific research and development, the results of which can be used to achieve political goals;
• * this method necessarily involves the development of a questionnaire for experts, which must be compiled according to a certain structural and hierarchical scheme, namely: from broad questions to narrow ones, from complex to simple ones;
• * during the survey of experts, it is necessary to ensure the unambiguity of understanding of individual issues, as well as the independence of experts' judgments. The pressure of "leading" opinion must be excluded;
• * at the final stage, the materials of the expert assessment are processed, which characterize the generalized opinion and the degree of consistency of the individual assessments of the experts;
• * experts' conclusions serve as the source material for the synthesis of predictive hypotheses and options for the development of political events.

The final score is defined as either the mean judgment or the normalized weighted average of the scores.

Collective generation of ideas - the method of "brainstorming" - is a widely used method in the study of the future. Its essence lies in the actualization of the creative potential of specialists in the "brainstorming" of a problem situation, which first realizes the generation of ideas and their subsequent destruction, criticism of these ideas with the formulation of counter-ideas. The brainstorming method is also called the method of destructive related evaluation. There are a number of steps in this method.

The first stage is the formation of a group of brainstorming participants (no more than 15 people). These should be specialists with a high level of general erudition and understanding the meaning of the problem situation.

The second stage is the preparation by the analysis group of the problem note of the brainstorming participant, which includes a description of the destructive related assessment method and the nature of the problem situation.

The third stage is the generation of ideas. It begins with the fact that the facilitator reveals the content of the problem note and focuses the attention of the participants on the rules for conducting "brainstorming": statements should be clear and concise; criticism of previous performances is not allowed (speak your own); it is not allowed to speak many times in a row, to read out a list of ideas that can be prepared by the participants in advance. The main task of the facilitator is to encourage statements on the problem situation. His main rule is not to declare false, not to condemn and not to stop the study of any idea, even if it seems absurd. It is best to record the ideas expressed on a tape recorder so as not to miss a single idea and be able to systematize them for the next stage.

The fourth stage is the systematization of ideas by the analysis group.

The fifth stage is the destruction of systematized ideas. Each idea is subjected to criticism from the participants of the "brainstorming", the number of which is brought to 25-30 people. At this stage, the main rule is to consider each of the systematized ideas only from the point of view of obstacles to its implementation, i.e. participants in the attack do not reject previously put forward ideas, but put forward arguments that reject the systematized idea. The duration of the stage is up to two hours, and the stage of generating ideas is up to one hour.

The sixth stage is the assessment of criticisms and the compilation of a list of practically applicable ideas.

scripting method. It has become widespread in recent years. The political process can be represented as a change of various political situations through which the political system, its individual institutions and other components pass in its movement. In this aspect, it can be argued that politics moves from situation to situation, and the situation is an elementary "step" of the political process.

The political situation can develop according to several scenarios.

A scenario is a way of establishing a logical sequence of events in order to determine alternatives for the development of political realities (international relations, national economy, social policy, conflicts, etc.). The considered method is the most effective in the analysis of the political situation in modern Russia. This is confirmed by the following studies: S. Kurginyan - "The Seventh Scenario"; Institute for Socio-Political Studies of the Russian Academy of Sciences - "Reforming Russia: Myths and Reality": research by theologians, for example, "Scenarios of Troubles" in the book "Choosing Fate"; L.I. Abalkin "Toward the Self-Knowledge of Russia". You should also pay attention to the special headings "Scenarios" in printed publications(magazines, newspapers).

The scenario uses pre-prepared analytical materials. It should be written in such a way that after reading it, the general goal of the work being carried out in the light of political tasks for a certain period of time becomes clear. Therefore, scenarios are called various (imaginary, but plausible) sequences of actions and the events arising from them that may occur in the future in the situation under study. These sequences have a common beginning (the present state), but then the possible states can differ more and more, which leads to the problem of choice.

How to practically use the scripting method?

The scripting method should be put into practice in two successive steps:

• 1) Description of the structure of the system at a given moment in time and verification of its internal consistency at that moment.
• 2) Evolution in time from one description to another under the natural influence of tendencies or under the conscious influence of decisions corresponding to a certain course of action.

For example, by 2000, a situation had developed that could be described by three scenarios:

• * catastrophic, implying a complete failure of the government in the economic sphere;
• * intermediate, when the central government only partially loses control over negative processes and the growth of crisis phenomena;
• * optimistic, when the government takes control of the situation and the situation in the country gradually returns to normal.

Now, after a while, we can be convinced that in these scenarios there was a very certain degree of reliability of the development of events.

When using scenario analysis, one should always keep in mind the existence of factors in the probable development of political events. These factors can be objective and subjective, internal and external, permanent and temporary, necessary and accidental, general, special and single, contributing to progress and hindering it.

The matrix method of forecasting and planning is used to assess the relative influence of interrelated factors on the achievement of the intended goals. The essence of the method is to obtain complex assessments by transforming the matrices of the results of expert assessments of the mutual influence of individual factors. The method allows:

• * analyze various scenarios for the development of events and rank them in order of importance to achieve the goal;
• * identify the most significant areas of policy that are of the greatest importance in solving the tasks;
• * determine the most important industries social sphere, the development of which ensures the achievement of the desired results;
• * choose the most effective political technologies;
• * substantiate the optimal allocation of power resources.

Delphi technique (Delphi method) - a consistent questioning of experts' opinions about the prospects of an object in order to identify the prevailing opinion of specialists. Questioning excludes direct debate, but allows experts to periodically adjust their judgments taking into account the answers and arguments of colleagues. The name of the method goes back to the oracle at the temple of Apollo at Delphi (an ancient religious center in Greece). Questions to the Delphic oracle were addressed by both individual citizens and representatives of states. The soothsayer Pythea, in a state of ecstasy, uttered answers to the questioners, who were clothed by one of the priests in poetic form and had the meaning of the prophecies given by Apollo. The prophecies of the Delphic oracle were preserved by Herodotus and in other sources.

extrapolation method. Logical extrapolation is the transfer of conclusions that are valid within a spatial or temporal segment, observations beyond this segment. Extrapolation forecasting methods underlie all research forecasts. Extrapolation is mathematical - the procedure for establishing the value of the function f (x) at points x lying outside the interval (x0, xn), according to known values functions at points x0< хi … < хn, лежащих внутри интервала [х0, хn].

Forecasting based on the modeling method. Modeling means the material or mental imitation of a real-life (natural) system through the special construction of analogues (models) in which the principles of organization and functioning of this system are reproduced; studies in models or on real objects are carried out using the methods of the theory of similarity. Phenomena are called similar, in which all parameters (full similarity) or the most significant in a given study (local similarity) at any time and at any point in space differ from the corresponding parameters of another phenomenon by a certain (constant throughout the study) number of times. There are two types of modeling. In the first case, this is a construction isomorphic to the modeled system. It is used in pure mathematics and in the mathematical description of social systems.

The meaning of such a description is that the relations between the elements of the system are expressed using equations, and in such a way that each term of the meaningful description of the system corresponds to some value (constant, variable) or function that appears in the equation. The equations themselves are called the model. An important epistemological condition for such modeling is the measurability of all the described processes. The second type of modeling is based on the concept of "black box". In cybernetics, this term refers to an object whose internal structure is inaccessible to observation, and which can be judged, in particular, by how it transforms the input signals.

In addition to these methods, forecasting uses: individual experimental estimates, forecasting by analogy, interpolation methods, intuition, correlation analysis, morphological analysis, heuristic method, forecasting based on historical and logical analysis, forecasting based on decision making theories, forecasting based on systems "profile ", "fast", "fame", forecasting based on individual findings, etc.

The use of a particular method or group of methods depends on the complexity and specifics of a particular object of study.

The general principles on which political forecasting is based are determined by the very nature of political reality. An important role here is played by the individual-personal principle, irrational components and stochastic processes. Therefore, when forecasting, you need to be able to:

Integrate, process and analyze diverse information of different quality - both political and social, economic, sociocultural, etc.;

To take into account the factors of alternativeness and probability, that is, to understand that there is no rigid predetermination of the development of political processes and the purpose of forecasting is to establish a “fan” of the main options and calculate their probability;

Navigate in interdisciplinary technologies, ensure the effective impact of experts in different areas;

Use and combine at work various methods, achieve a more complete and comprehensive coverage of the policy fragment under study;

Correlate the tools used in forecasting with the very process of making and implementing political decisions.

In addition to following this general principles it is necessary to clearly understand those specific conditions in which the processes under study take place and decisions are made.

Forecasting is based on three ways of generating information about the future, which determine the need to use certain forecasting methods:

Opinion, assessment of the prospects for the development of processes or situations based on experience, most often by analogy with fairly well-known consequences;

Conditional continuation into the future (extrapolation) of trends, the patterns of development of which in the past and present are well known;

A model of the state in the future of a particular phenomenon, process, built in accordance with the expected or desired changes in a number of conditions, parameters, and the like, the development prospects of which are quite well known.

The choice of methods and possibilities of forecasting is significantly influenced by the methods of developing forecasts, among which there are: expert survey (questionnaires, interviews); extrapolation (construction of time series of the development of indicators of the predicted process); modeling (construction of search and normative models).

Depending on the specific study on forecasting the political situation, the methods used in it are determined. Classification of forecasts can be carried out on the following grounds.

1. The range of issues under study: thematic, complex.

3. Lead time: operational (up to 1 month), short-term (from 1 month to 1 year), medium-term (from 1 year to 5 years), long-term (from 5 to 15 years), long-term (20 years or more).

Program-target criterion: search (a forecast that determines the possible state of the phenomenon in the future). Such a forecast answers the question: “What is most likely to happen if current trends continue?”); normative (a forecast that determines the ways and timing of achieving possible states of a phenomenon taken as a goal.

Such a forecast answers the question: “What are the ways to achieve the desired?”); planned (such a forecast answers the question: “How and in what direction should planning be oriented in order to more effectively achieve the goals set?”); programmatic (the forecast answers the question: “What exactly is needed to achieve the desired?”); design (the forecast answers the question: "How exactly to do it and how it might look?"); organizational (forecast of current decisions). Such a forecast answers the question: “In what direction should decisions be oriented in order to achieve the goal?”.

Forecasting as a complex analytical study consists of a number of stages. The general logical sequence of the most important operations for developing a political forecast is reduced to the following main stages.

The first stage is a pre-forecast orientation (research program). The tasks are specified, the nature of the forecast, its scale, the periods of foundation and lead are analyzed, the goal and objectives, working hypotheses are formulated, the methods and the process of organizing the forecast are determined. However, the main thing is the analysis of the forecasting object. The purpose of the analysis is the development of a predictive model that allows obtaining predictive information about the object. The description of the object begins already during the development of the task for the forecast. First, a preliminary description is made. It contains information about the most generalized indicators of the object. Here the leading role is usually played by the experience and intuition of specialists.

When analyzing the object of forecasting, methodological principles must be observed. Thus, the principle of consistency requires considering the object and the forecast background in accordance with the goals and objectives of the study. The principle of natural specificity presupposes the obligatory consideration of the specifics of the nature of the object of forecasting, the laws of its development, the absolute and calculated values ​​of the limits of development. The principle of similarity implies, when analyzing an object, a constant comparison of its properties with similar objects known in the field and their models in order to find an analogue object and use its model or individual elements in the analysis and forecasting.

The second stage of the development of the forecast is the construction of the initial (basic) model of the predicted object using the methods of system analysis. To refine the model, a survey of the population and experts is possible. In system analysis, two approaches to the analysis and synthesis of such structures are used, which are also applicable to the analysis of forecasting objects. The first approach is called object, the second - functional.

The third stage of forecast development is the collection of forecast background data by the methods mentioned above. The forecast background is a set of conditions external to the object of forecasting that are essential for solving the problem of political forecasting. For example, the prediction of the stability of the political system assumes both necessary condition taking into account forecasts of economic development for the future. Without this, it is hardly possible to count on the accuracy of the political forecast.

The fourth stage is the construction of time series of indicators - the basis of future predictive models by extrapolation methods; it is possible to generalize this material in the form of predictive pre-model scenarios. A time series is a temporal sequence of retrospective values ​​of a forecasting object variable. In turn, the variable of the forecasting object means the quantitative characteristic of the object, which is or is taken as changing during the foundation period and the forecast lead period.

The fifth stage is the construction of a series of hypothetical (preliminary) search models using the methods of search analysis of profile and background indicators with specification of the minimum, maximum and most probable value. As you know, the content of the search forecast is to determine the possible states of the object of forecasting in the future. Search methods usually include extrapolation, as well as historical analogy, scripting, analytical method, etc.

The sixth stage is the construction of a series of hypothetical normative models of the predicted object using the methods of normative analysis with the specification of the values ​​of the absolute (i.e., not limited by the forecast background) and relative (i.e., tied to these frameworks) optimum according to predetermined criteria in accordance with specified norms, ideals , goals. Goals and norms must be realistic.

The seventh stage is an assessment of the reliability and accuracy, as well as the validity (verification) of the forecast - the refinement of hypothetical models by methods of interviewing experts.

The art of political forecasting consists in being able, based on the objective laws of the development of certain phenomena, to be able to determine the future qualities, directions and nature of the development of these phenomena and at the same time be able to direct this development in the right direction in accordance with the goal set. In general, methods for checking the reliability of a forecast should be considered its scientific validity, logical evidence, experimental verification, and intuitive evidence.

The eighth stage is the development of recommendations for decisions in the field of management based on a comparison of search and normative models. Changes in the field of domestic and foreign policy clearly require that forecast developments be taken into account as far as possible in political decision-making. This imposes a huge responsibility on political forecasters.

The ninth stage is the analysis (examination) of the prepared forecast and recommendations, their revision taking into account the discussion and delivery to the customer.

The tenth stage is a new pre-forecast orientation based on a comparison of the developed forecast materials with new forecast background data and the beginning of a new research cycle (forecasting should be as continuous as goal-setting, planning, management, which it is designed to increase the efficiency of).

According to estimates of domestic and foreign scientists and specialists, there are currently more than 150 forecasting methods. According to the degree of formalization, they can be conditionally divided into formalized and intuitive.

Formalized forecasting methods include:

Group of extrapolation methods: least squares method; exponential smoothing method; probable modeling method; adaptive smoothing method, etc.;

Group of system-structural methods: methods of functional-hierarchical modeling; method of morphological analysis; matrix method; network modeling method; method of structural analogy, etc.;

Group of associative methods: simulation modeling methods; method of historical and logical analysis, etc.;

A group of advanced information methods: methods for analyzing the flow of publications, etc.

Intuitive forecasting methods include:

Group of methods of individual expert assessment: method of interviewing experts; method of questioning experts; method self-study assessment expert, etc.;

A group of methods of collective expert assessment: a method of questioning representatives of social groups based on quota-proportional sampling; methods of "commissions"; methods of "brainstorming"; method "Delphi", etc.;

A group of methods for analytical documents: methods for writing scenarios for a political situation, etc.

Forecasting can be conditionally divided into three stages: preparatory, main and final, which differ in the methods used.

At the preparatory stage of forecasting, the following methods are used: study of documents, survey (questionnaire, interview), observation, modeling, etc.

At the main stage of forecasting, the following methods are used: logical and historical, analysis and synthesis, induction and deduction, analogy, statistics, etc.

At the final stage of forecasting, the following methods are used: descriptive, comparative, experiment, modeling, mathematical methods, methods of cybernetics, methods of sociology, methods of psychology, etc.

The methods used to study the socio-political situation can also be conditionally divided into three types: comparative historical, empirical, systemic.

Comparative historical methods allow the subjects of research to study socio-political objects, facts and phenomena in their dynamic state, on various stages development. This is necessary for the analysis of repeatedly repeating phenomena and is very important for the study of socio-political processes occurring in comparative historical situations. It is practically impossible to understand the place and role of political parties in modern political processes without carefully studying their genesis and development.

empirical methods contribute to a deeper study of public opinion and the political culture of people, the influence of various social facts on political processes, a systematic analysis of large and small public structures, structural and functional study political institutions etc. For empirical research widely used sociological research(questionnaire survey, interviewing, content analysis, included and excluded observation, experiment, modeling, etc.).

System methods make it possible to study political processes and phenomena in general and the socio-political situation in particular as a complex process, to identify the most important elements and subsystems, trace their interconnection and interdependence, the possibility of influencing the course of development of the entire situation.

Let's take a closer look at some of the methods. The method of collective expert evaluation. Its essence is to determine the consistency of opinions of experts on promising directions for the development of domestic or foreign policy or their individual areas, previously formulated by individual specialists, as well as to assess aspects of the development of political relations, which cannot be determined by other methods (for example, experiment).

The method of collective peer review involves four steps:

Working groups are created to organize expert assessments. Their functions include conducting a survey, processing materials and analyzing the results of a collective expert assessment. The working group appoints experts, they provide answers to the questions raised regarding the prospects for the development of certain areas of domestic or foreign policy (the number of experts involved in developing a forecast can vary from 10 to 100-150 people, depending on the complexity of the object);

Before organizing a survey of experts, it is necessary to clarify the main directions for the development of political processes and events, as well as to draw up a matrix that reflects the general goal, sub-goals and means to achieve them. The means of achieving the goal are understood as areas of scientific research and development, the results of which can be used to achieve political goals. Further, before organizing the survey, it is necessary to develop questions for experts (they must be compiled according to a certain structural-hierarchical scheme, that is, from broad questions to narrow ones, from complex to simple ones);

During the survey of experts, it is necessary to ensure the unambiguity of understanding of individual issues, as well as the independence of experts' judgments. The pressure of "leading" opinion must be excluded;

Processing of expert evaluation materials that characterize the generalized opinion and the degree of consistency of individual expert evaluations. The processing of these expert assessments serves as the starting material for the synthesis of predictive hypotheses and options for the development of political events.

The final score is defined either as the average judgment, or as the arithmetic mean of the scores of all experts, or as a normalized weighted average of the score.

Collective generation of ideas - the method of "brainstorming" - is a widely used method in the study of the future. Its essence lies in the actualization of the creative potential of specialists during the "brainstorming" of a problem situation, which first realizes the generation of ideas and subsequent destruction, criticism of these ideas with the formulation of counter-ideas. The brainstorming method is also called the method of destructive related evaluation. There are a number of steps involved in working with this method.

The first stage is the formation of a group of brainstorming participants (no more than 15 people). These should be specialists with a high level of general erudition and understanding the meaning of the problem situation.

The second stage is the compilation of a problematic note of the brainstorming participant. It is compiled by the problem situation analysis group and includes a description of the method of destructive related evaluation and a description of the problem situation.

The third stage is the generation of ideas. It begins with the facilitator revealing the content of the problem note and focusing the participants’ attention on the rules for brainstorming: statements should be clear and concise, criticism of previous speeches is not allowed (speak your own), it is not allowed to speak many times in a row, read out a list of ideas which can be prepared by participants in advance. The main task of the facilitator is to encourage statements on the problem situation. His main rule is not to declare false, not to condemn and not to stop the study of any idea, even if it seems absurd.

It is better to record the expressed ideas on a tape recorder so as not to miss a single idea and be able to systematize them for the next stage.

The fourth stage is the systematization of ideas by the analysis group.

The fifth stage is the destruction of systematized ideas. Each idea is criticized by the brainstorming participants, whose number is brought up to 25-30 people. At this stage, the main rule applies: to consider each systematized idea only from the point of view of obstacles to its implementation, i.e., the participants in the attack do not reject the ideas, but put forward arguments that refute the systematized idea. The duration of the stage is up to two hours, and the stage of generating ideas is up to one hour.

The sixth stage is the assessment of criticisms and the compilation of a list of practically applicable ideas.

scripting method. The political situation can develop according to several scenarios. A scenario is a way of establishing a logical sequence of events in order to determine alternatives for the development of large systems (international relations, national economy, politics, social relations, etc.).

It should be noted that the method under consideration in the current conditions is the most effective in the analysis of the political situation in Russia. In a script, the description is usually done in time coordinates. The meaning of the scenario is the definition of the main goal of the development of the object of study. The scenario uses pre-prepared analytical materials. It should be written in such a way that after reading it, the general goal of the work being carried out in the light of political tasks for a certain period becomes clear.

Therefore, scenarios are called various (imaginary, but plausible) sequences of actions and the events arising from them that may occur in the future in the situation under study. These sequences have a common beginning (the present state), but then the possible states differ more and more, which leads to the problem of choice.

So, forecasting is one of the components of any knowledge, any science, including political science. Interest in the problem of forecasting is currently experiencing an obvious rise in Russia. Forecasts are handled by political analysts, numerous analytical institutes, statesmen, journalists, etc. When forecasting, the question of the social responsibility of the analyst for the results of his research, which can be disposed of in different ways, is relevant. This is all the more relevant for political science, since specific political decisions are built on the knowledge gained in this area, and then actions that determine the development of the whole society, the life of real people.