Data sources for execution control work served as a balance sheet and income statement.
Entrepreneurial risk is assessed using the indicator - strength operating lever(COP) for implementation.
COP = VM / Profit = 1261.3 / 573.7 = 2.199
The risk arises due to the fact that a change in sales revenue is always accompanied by a stronger change in profit.
In our case. if the sales proceeds change by 1%, the profit will change by 2.199%.
Let us calculate the critical values ​​of the indicators with an increase in the volume of work performed by 10% and 20% and in one relevant range, having issued them in Table 2.
To do this, we first determine the threshold of profitability.
Profitability threshold \u003d Fixed costs / Kvm \u003d 687.6 / 0.103 \u003d 6668.188 thousand rubles.
Table 1 - Calculation of critical values ​​of indicators

Indicators	Basic	With a 10% increase in revenue	With a 20% increase in revenue
1. Sales proceeds thousand rubles.	12231.8	13454.98	14678.16
2. Variable costs thousand rubles.	10970.5	12067.55	13164.6
3. Gross margin (VM) thousand rubles.	1261.3	1387.43	1513.56
4. Kvm, units	0.103	0.103	0.103
5. Fixed costs thousand rubles.	687.6	687.6	687.6
6. Profit thousand rubles.	573.7	699.83	825.96
7. COP, units	2.199	1.983	1.832
8. ZFP thousand rubles.	5563.612	6786.792	8009.972
9. ZFP, %	45.485	50.441	54.571

here ZFP = Revenue - Margin Threshold, ZFP% = ZFP / Revenue, Profit (ZFP) = ZFP * Kvm
We will analyze the change in profit according to the following scheme:

For our data:
% change in earnings(1) = 1.832 * 10 = 18.325
% change in earnings(2) = 1.983 = * 20 = 39.65
In this way. the financial safety margin is 5563.612 thousand rubles. or 45.485%.
With an increase in the volume of work performed by 10%, the profit will increase by 18.325% and the ZFP will amount to 6786.792 thousand rubles. or 50.441%.
A 20% increase in work performed will result in a 39.65% increase in profits. ZFP will be equal to 8009.972 thousand rubles. or 54.571%.
As you move away from the threshold of profitability, the margin of financial safety increases, and the strength of the operating leverage decreases, which is associated with a relative decrease in fixed costs per unit of output in the relevant range.

Profit sensitivity analysis

Let's analyze the sensitivity of profit to changes in individual elements of the operating leverage.
Table 3 - Profit sensitivity analysis to changes in individual elements of the COP

Indicators	base value	Price, %		Variable costs, %		Fixed costs, %
		10	-10	10	-10	5	-5
Sales proceeds, thousand rubles	12231.8	13454.98	11008.62	12231.8	12231.8	12231.8	12231.8
Variable costs, thousand rubles	10970.5	10970.5	10970.5	12067.55	9873.45	10970.5	10970.5
Gross margin (VM), thousand rubles	1261.3	2484.48	38.12	164.25	2358.35	1261.3	1261.3
Kvm, units	0.103	0.185	0.00346	0.0134	0.193	0.103	0.103
Fixed costs, thousand rubles	687.6	687.6	687.6	687.6	687.6	721.98	653.22
Profit, thousand rubles	573.7	1796.88	-649.48	-523.35	1670.75	539.32	608.08
Profit growth rate, %	0	213.209	-213.209	-191.224	191.224	-5.993	5.993

Calculation of the compensatory volume of work performed:
when the price changes:
Ko \u003d Original sum of BM / New Kvm / New price implementation
Ko (+ 10%) = 1261.3 / 0.185 / 13454.98 = 0.508
Ko (- 10%) = 1261.3 / 0.00346 / 11008.62 = 33.088
In this way. a 10% increase in the cost of goods will lead to a 213.209% increase in profits while maintaining the same sales volume. and if it decreases by -49.233%(0.508 * 100 - 100), the profit will remain unchanged.
With a decrease in the cost of goods by 10%, to obtain the same profit, it is necessary to increase sales by 3208.762%, otherwise the profit will decrease by 213.209%.
when changing variable costs:
Ko = Initial amount of BM / New Kvm / Selling price
Ko (+ 10%) = 1261.3 / 0.0134 / 12231.8 = 7.679
Ko (- 10%) = 1261.3 / 0.193 / 12231.8 = 0.535
A 10% increase in variable costs will result in a 191.224% decrease in profit. To ensure the base profit, it is necessary to increase sales by 667.915%. (7.679 * 100 - 100)
With a decrease in variable costs by 10%, it is possible to reduce the volume of sales by -46.518(0.535 * 100 - 100)%. maintaining the original profit margin. If the volume of sales remains unchanged, the profit will increase by 191.224%.
when changing fixed costs
Ko \u003d New amount of BM / Initial Kvm / Selling price
New VM amount = Outgoing profit + New fixed costs
Ko (+ 10%) = 1295.68 / 0.103 / 12231.8 = 1.027
Ko (- 10%) = 1226.92 / 0.103 / 12231.8 = 0.973
A 5% increase in fixed costs will offset a 2.726% increase in sales with unchanged profits, or result in a 5.993% decrease in profits while maintaining unchanged sales.
In the case of a decrease in fixed costs by 5%, profit will increase by 11.9%, and with a decrease in sales by 5%, it will remain unchanged.
The impact of a change in the volume of work performed can be determined through the strength of the operating leverage:
% Change in Profit = COP * % Change in Revenue
% change in earnings = 2.199 * (+ 10%) = 21.985%
% Profit Change = 2.199 * (+ 10%) = -21.985%
Thus, with an increase in sales by 10%, profit will increase by 22% and, conversely, with a decrease in sales by 10%, profit will decrease by 22%.
Let's group the influence of individual elements of the operating leverage on profit sensitivity in Table 4.
Table 4 - Influence of individual elements of operating leverage on profit sensitivity

Elements of the operating lever	%	Profit change, %	Required volume of sales to maintain a constant profit, thousand rubles.	Change in sales volume, %	Threshold of profitability, thousand rubles
Price	10	213.209	6209.738	-49.233	3723.775
	-10	-213.209	404721.127	3208.762	198571.016
variable costs	10	-191.224	93929.798	667.915	51206.001
	-10	191.224	6541.849	-46.518	3566.301
fixed costs	5	-5.993	12565.209	2.726	7001.598
	-5	5.993	11898.391	-2.726	6334.779
Volume of sales	10	21.985	-	-	6668.188

In table. 4, the rating of factors is determined, which allows you to select key variables, i.e. elements of operating leverage that lead to the largest change in profits. V this case such elements are price and variable costs.

Strictly speaking, with a comprehensive risk assessment, it would be necessary to establish for each absolute or relative value of the magnitude of possible losses the corresponding probability of occurrence of such a magnitude.

The construction of a probability curve (or table) is intended to be the initial stage of risk assessment. But in relation to entrepreneurship, this is most often an extremely difficult task. Therefore, in practice, one has to limit oneself to simplified approaches, assessing the risk by one or more indicators representing generalized characteristics that are most important for judging risk acceptability.

Let's look at some of the main indicators of risk. To this end, we first identify certain areas or zones of risk, depending on the magnitude of the losses.

The area in which losses are not expected, we will call the risk-free zone, it corresponds to zero losses or negative (exceeding profits).

By the zone of acceptable risk we mean the area within which this species entrepreneurial activity retains its economic feasibility, i.e., losses occur, but they are less than the expected profit.

The boundary of the zone of acceptable risk corresponds to the level of losses equal to the estimated profit from entrepreneurial activity.

The next more dangerous area will be called the critical risk zone. This is an area characterized by the possibility of losses in excess of the expected profit, up to the value of the total estimated revenue from the business, representing the sum of costs and profits.

In other words, the critical risk zone is characterized by the danger of losses that obviously exceed the expected profit and, at the maximum, can lead to an irrecoverable loss of all funds invested by the entrepreneur in the business. In the latter case, the entrepreneur not only does not receive any income from the transaction, but incurs losses in the amount of all fruitless expenses.

In addition to the critical, it is advisable to consider an even more frightening catastrophic risk. The zone of catastrophic risk represents the area of ​​losses, which in their magnitude exceed the critical level and at the maximum can reach a value equal to the property status of the entrepreneur. A catastrophic risk can lead to the collapse, bankruptcy of an enterprise, its closure and the sale of property Pindike Robert S., Rabinfeld Daniel L. Microeconomics / S. Zhiltsov (translated from English), A. Zheleznichenko (translated from English). -- 5. international ed. - St. Petersburg. : Peter, 2002. - 606s. .

The category of catastrophic should include, regardless of property or monetary damage, the risk associated with a direct danger to human life or the occurrence of environmental disasters.

The most complete picture of the risk is given by the so-called loss probability distribution curve or a graphic representation of the dependence of the probability of losses on their level, showing how likely the occurrence of certain losses is.

To establish the type of a typical loss probability curve, consider profit as a random variable and first construct a probability distribution curve for obtaining a certain level of profit (Fig. 2).

The following assumptions were made when constructing the profit probability distribution curve.

1. Most likely to receive a profit equal to the calculated value - PRr. The probability (Вр) of obtaining such a profit is maximum; accordingly, the value of PRr can be considered the mathematical expectation of profit.

The probability of making a profit greater or less than the calculated one is the lower, the more such profit differs from the calculated one, i.e., the values ​​of the probabilities of deviation from the calculated profit monotonically decrease with the growth of deviations.

2. Loss of profit (DPR) is its decrease in comparison with the calculated value of PRr. If real profit equals PR, then

DPR=PRr-PR

3. The probability of exceptionally large (theoretically infinite) losses is practically zero, since the losses obviously have an upper limit (excluding losses that cannot be quantified).

Of course, the assumptions made are somewhat debatable, as they may indeed not hold for all types of risk. But, in general, they correctly reflect the general patterns of change in entrepreneurial risk and are based on the hypothesis that profit as a random variable is subject to normal or close to normal law distribution.

Among the applied methods for constructing a risk curve, we single out statistical, expert, computational and analytical.

The statistical method consists in the fact that the statistics of losses that have occurred in similar types of business activities are studied, the frequency of occurrence of certain levels of losses is established.

If the statistical array is sufficiently representative, then the frequency of occurrence of a given level of losses can be equated in the first approximation to the probability of their occurrence and, on this basis, a curve of loss probabilities can be constructed, which is the desired risk curve Ovchinnikov GP Microeconomics. Macroeconomics / St. Petersburg State University. un- t; Republican Humanitarian Institute Department of Economics and Law (St. Petersburg). - S.Pb., 1997. - 751s. - T. 1 - S.Pb., 1997 - 751s. .

We note one important circumstance. Determining the frequency of occurrence of some level of losses by dividing the number of relevant occurrences by their total number, should be included in the total number of cases and those business transactions in which there were no losses, but there was a gain, i.e., an excess of the calculated profit. Otherwise, the indicators of the probability of losses and the threat of risk will be overestimated.

The expert method, known as the method of expert assessments, in relation to entrepreneurial risk can be implemented by processing the opinions of experienced entrepreneurs or specialists.

It is most desirable that experts give their estimates of the probabilities of occurrence of certain levels of losses, according to which it would then be possible to find the average values ​​of expert estimates and use them to construct a probability distribution curve.

You can even limit yourself to obtaining expert estimates of the probabilities of a certain level of losses at four characteristic points. In other words, it is necessary to establish in an expert way the indicators of the most possible permissible, critical and catastrophic losses, bearing in mind both their levels and probabilities.

Based on these four characteristic points, it is easy to reproduce approximately the entire loss probability distribution curve. Of course, with a small array of expert estimates, the frequency graph is not representative enough, and the probability curve, based on such a graph, can only be constructed in a purely approximate way. But still, there will be a certain idea of ​​the risk and indicators characterizing it, and this is already much more than not knowing anything.

The calculation-analytical method for constructing a loss probability distribution curve and estimating business risk indicators on this basis is based on theoretical concepts. Unfortunately, as already noted, the applied theory of risk is well developed only in relation to insurance and gambling risk.

Elements of game theory are in principle applicable to all types of entrepreneurial risk, but applied mathematical methods for estimating production, commercial, financial risk based on game theory have not yet been created.

And yet it is possible, for example, to proceed from the hypothesis that the law of distribution of losses takes place. However, in this case, the difficult task of constructing a risk curve remains to be solved.

Rice. one.

Rice. 2. A typical probability curve for a certain level of profit

Rice. 3. Typical Occurrence Distribution Curve

In conclusion, it can be noted once again that methods for analyzing and assessing entrepreneurial risk in many respects still need to be developed, created by Ivashkovsky S. Microeconomics: Textbook / Institute of Business and Business Administration of the Academy of National Economy under the Government of the Russian Federation; Moscow state. in-t international relations(un-t) Ministry of Foreign Affairs of the Russian Federation. - M.: Delo, 2003. - 416 p. .

Topic 3. Business risk assessment (4 hours).

Financial risk, like any risk, has a mathematically expressed probability of a loss, which is based on statistical data and can be calculated with a fairly high accuracy. To quantify the amount of financial risk, you need to know everything possible consequences any particular action and the likelihood of the consequences themselves. Probability means the possibility of obtaining a certain result. As applied to economic problems, the methods of probability theory are reduced to determining the values ​​of the probability of the occurrence of events and to choosing the most preferable of the possible events based on the largest value of the mathematical expectation. In other words, the mathematical expectation of an event is equal to the absolute value of this event, multiplied by the probability of its occurrence.

Example. There are two options for investing capital. It has been established that when investing capital in event A, making a profit in the amount of 15 thousand rubles. - probability 0.6; in event B, making a profit in the amount of 20 thousand rubles. - probability 0.4. Then the expected profit from capital investment (i.e. mathematical expectation) will be:
- for event A 15 0.6 = 9 thousand rubles;
- for event B 20 0.4 = 8 thousand rubles.

The probability of an event occurring can be determined by an objective method or a subjective one. objective method probability is based on calculating the frequency with which a given event occurs. For example, if it is known that when investing capital in any event, a profit in the amount of 15 thousand rubles. was obtained in 120 cases out of 200, then the probability of obtaining such a profit is 0.6! 120 .

subjective method is based on the use of subjective criteria, which are based on various assumptions. Such assumptions may include the judge's judgment, personal experience, expert assessment, opinion of a financial consultant, etc.

The magnitude of the risk or degree of risk is measured by two criteria:
1) average expected value;
2) fluctuation (variability) of the possible result.

Average expected value is the value of the event magnitude associated with the uncertain situation. The mean expected value is a weighted average of all possible outcomes, where the probability of each outcome is used as the frequency or weight of the corresponding value. Average expected value measures the outcome we expect on average,

There is no business without risk. The highest profit, as a rule, is brought by market operations with increased risk. However, everything needs a measure. The risk must be calculated up to the maximum allowable limit. As you know, all market estimates are multivariate. It is important not to be afraid of mistakes in your market activities, since no one is immune from them, and most importantly, do not repeat mistakes, constantly adjust the system of actions from the standpoint of maximum profit. The manager is meant to provide additional features to soften the sharp turns in the market. the main objective management, especially for the conditions of today's Russia, to ensure that, in the worst case scenario, we can only talk about a certain decrease in profits, but in no case there was a question of bankruptcy. So Special attention is given to continuous improvement of risk management - risk management.

At market economy manufacturers, sellers, buyers act in a competitive environment on their own, that is, at their own peril and risk. Their financial future is therefore unpredictable and little predictable. Risk management is a system of risk assessment, risk management and financial relations arising in the course of business. The risk can be managed using a variety of measures that make it possible to predict the occurrence of a risk event to a certain extent and take timely measures to reduce the degree of risk.

In Russian practice, the risk of an entrepreneur is quantitatively characterized by a subjective assessment of the expected value of the maximum and minimum income (loss) from capital investment. The larger the range between the maximum and minimum income (loss) with an equal probability of their receipt, the higher the degree of risk. Risk is an action in the hope of a happy outcome on the principle of "luck-no-luck." The uncertainty of the economic situation, the uncertainty of the conditions of the political and economic situation and the prospects for changing these conditions force the entrepreneur to take on the risk. The greater the uncertainty of the economic situation when making a decision, the higher the degree of risk.

The degree and magnitude of risk can really be influenced through the financial mechanism, which is carried out using the methods of strategy and financial management. This kind of risk management mechanism is risk management. Risk management is based on the organization of work to determine and reduce the degree of risk.

Risk management is a system for managing risk and economic (more precisely, financial) relations that arise in the process of this management, and includes the strategy and tactics of management actions.

Under management strategy This refers to the directions and methods of using funds to achieve the goal. Each method corresponds to a certain set of rules and restrictions for making the best decision. The strategy helps to concentrate efforts on various solutions that do not contradict the general line of the strategy and discard all other options. After reaching the set goal, this strategy ceases to exist, since new goals put forward the task of developing a new strategy.

Tactics- practical methods and techniques of management to achieve the established goal in specific conditions. The task of management tactics is to choose the most optimal solution and the most constructive management methods and techniques in a given economic situation.

Risk management as a management system consists of two subsystems: the managed subsystem - the object of management and the management subsystem - the subject of management. The object of management in risk management is risky investments of capital and economic relations between business entities in the process of risk realization. Such economic relations include relations between the insured and the insurer, the borrower and the lender, between entrepreneurs, competitors, etc.

The subject of management in risk management is a group of managers (financial manager, insurance specialist, etc.), which, through various options for its impact, performs the purposeful functioning of the management object. This process can only be carried out under the condition of circulation necessary information between the subject and the object of control. The management process always involves the receipt, transfer, processing and practical use information. The acquisition of information that is reliable and sufficient under specific conditions plays a major role, as it helps to make the right decision on actions in a risk environment. Information support consists of various kinds of information: statistical, economic, commercial, financial, etc.

This information includes information about the probability of a particular insured event, event, the presence and magnitude of demand for goods, capital, financial stability and solvency of its customers, partners, competitors, etc.

Whoever owns the information owns the market. Many types of information are subject to trade secrets and may be one of the types of intellectual property, and therefore be made as a contribution to authorized capital joint stock company or partnership. The fact that the financial manager has sufficient and reliable business information allows him to quickly make financial and commercial decisions, affects the correctness of such decisions. This leads to lower losses and higher profits.

Any managerial decision is based on information, and the quality of this information is important, which should be assessed when it is received, and not when it is transmitted. Information now loses relevance very quickly, it should be used promptly.

An economic entity must be able not only to collect information, but to store and retrieve it if necessary. The best card file for collecting information is a computer that has both a good memory and the ability to quickly find the information you need.

Risk management performs certain functions.

There are the following functions of risk management:
- the management object, which includes the risk resolution organization; risk capital investments; work to reduce the magnitude of the risk; risk insurance process; economic relations and links between the subjects of the economic process.
- the subject of management, within which forecasting, organization, coordination, regulation, stimulation, control.

Forecasting is a development for the prospect of change financial condition object as a whole and various parts. Forecasting is the prediction of certain events. Organization - an association of people jointly implementing a program of risky investment of capital based on certain rules and procedures. Regulation - the impact on the control object, through which the state of stability of this object is achieved in the event of a deviation from the specified parameters. Coordination - ensuring the consistency of the work of all parts of the risk management system. Stimulation - motivation of financial managers, other specialists to be interested in the results of their work. Finally, control is a check of the organization of work to reduce the degree of risk.

There are no ready-made recipes in risk management and there cannot be. But knowing his methods, techniques, ways of solving certain economic problems, one can achieve tangible success in a particular situation.

A manager's intuition and insight play a special role in solving risky tasks. Intuition is the ability to directly, as if suddenly, without logical thinking, find the right solution to a problem. Intuition is an indispensable component of the creative process. Insight is the consciousness of solving a specific problem. At the moment of insight, the decision is clearly perceived, but this clarity is often of a short duration. Therefore, a conscious fixation of the decision is necessary.

In cases where the risk cannot be calculated, risky decisions are made using heuristics, which is a set of logical techniques and methodological rules for theoretical research and finding the truth. In other words, these are ways of solving particularly complex problems. Risk management has its own system heuristic rules and techniques to make a decision under risk:
- You can't risk more than your own capital can afford.
- You should always think about the consequences of the risk.
- A positive decision is made only when there is no doubt.
You can't risk a lot for a little.
- When there is doubt, negative decisions are made.
- You can not think that there is always only one solution, it is possible that there are other options.

Before deciding on a risky capital investment, the financial manager must determine the maximum amount of loss for this risk; compare it with the amount of invested capital; compare it with all your own financial resources and determine whether the loss of this capital will lead to the bankruptcy of the investor. The amount of loss from capital investment can be equal to the amount of this capital, be less than it or more.

An integral element of risk management is the organization of activities for the implementation of the planned program, that is, the determination of certain types of activities, the volume and sources of financing for these works, specific executors, deadlines, etc. An important milestone risk management organizations are monitoring the implementation of the planned program, analyzing and evaluating the results of the selected risk solution option.

The organization of risk management involves the definition of a risk management body, which can be a financial manager, a risk manager or an appropriate management apparatus, say, a risk capital investment department, which should perform the following functions:
- carry out venture and portfolio investments, that is, risky investments in accordance with the current legislation and the charter of an economic entity;
- develop a program of risky investment activities;
- collect, analyze, process and store information about the environment;
- determine the degree and cost of risks, strategy and management techniques;
- develop a program of risky decisions and organize its implementation, including monitoring and analysis of results;
- carry out insurance activities, conclude insurance and reinsurance contracts, conduct insurance and reinsurance operations;
- develop conditions for insurance and reinsurance, set the amount tariff rates on insurance operations;
- issue a guarantee on the surety of Russian and foreign companies, make compensation for losses at their expense, entrust other persons with the performance of similar functions abroad;
- maintain appropriate accounting, statistical and operational reporting on risky capital investments.

Risk management strategy is the art of risk management in an uncertain economic situation, based on risk prediction and risk reduction techniques. This strategy includes the rules on the basis of which risky decisions are made and ways to choose their option.

The following rules apply in the risk management strategy:
- maximum win
- the optimal probability of the result,
- optimal variability of the result,
- the optimal combination of gain and risk.

The essence of the maximum payoff rule is that from options risky investments of capital, the option is chosen that gives the greatest efficiency of the result at a minimum or acceptable risk for the investor.

Achieving the optimal probability of the result is that of the possible solutions, one is chosen at which the probability of the result is acceptable to the investor. In practice, the application of the rule of the optimal probability of the result is usually combined with the use of the rule of the optimal variability of the result, the essence of the latter is that of the possible solutions, one is chosen at which the probabilities of winning and losing for the same risky investment of capital have the smallest gap.

The desire for the optimal combination of the size of the gain and the amount of risk lies in the fact that the manager evaluates the expected values ​​of the gain and risk and decides to invest in the event that allows you to get the expected gain and at the same time avoid high risk. The decision-making rules for risky investment of capital are supplemented by various ways of choosing a solution option. Among the latest choices:

A solution option, provided that the probabilities of possible economic situations are known;
- a solution option, provided that the probabilities of possible economic situations are unknown, but there are estimates of their relative values,
- a solution option, provided that the probabilities of possible economic situations are unknown, but the main directions for evaluating the results of capital investment are known.

In the first case, the average expected value of the rate of return on invested capital for each option is determined and the option with the highest rate of return is selected. In the second, by means of an expert assessment, the value of the probability of the conditions of economic situations is established and the average expected value of the rate of return on invested capital is calculated. In the third case, there are three directions for evaluating the results of capital investment: choosing the maximum result from the minimum value; selection of the minimum risk value from the maximum risks; choice medium size result. Calculation by risk assessment and choice the best option capital investment is made with mathematical methods which are studied by such disciplines as econometrics, financial management, economic analysis.

The entrepreneur in the course of his actions in the market is obliged to choose a strategy that would allow him to reduce the degree of risk. Mathematical apparatus for choosing a strategy in conflict situations gives a game theory that allows an entrepreneur or manager to better understand the competitive environment and minimize the degree of risk. Analysis using the techniques of game theory encourages the entrepreneur to consider all possible alternatives of both his actions and the strategies of partners and competitors. Game theory helps solve many economic problems associated with the choice, the determination of the best position, subject only to certain restrictions arising from the conditions of the problem itself. Therefore, the risk has a mathematically expressed probability of loss, which is based on statistical data and can be calculated with a fairly high degree of accuracy.

The central place in the assessment of entrepreneurial risk is occupied by the analysis and forecasting of possible losses of resources in the course of entrepreneurial activity. This does not mean the expenditure of resources, objectively determined by the nature and scale of entrepreneurial actions, but random, unforeseen, but potentially possible losses arising from the deviation of the real course of entrepreneurship from the planned scenario.

In order to assess the probability of certain losses due to the development of events according to an unforeseen option, one should first of all know all types of losses associated with entrepreneurship and be able to calculate them in advance or measure them as probable forecast values. At the same time, it is natural to want to quantify each type of loss and be able to bring them together, which, unfortunately, is not always possible to do. One important circumstance must be kept in mind here. A random development of events that affects the course and results of entrepreneurship can lead not only to losses in the form of increased resource costs and a decrease in the final result. It can cause an increase in the costs of one type of resource and a decrease in the costs of another type, i.e. along with the increased costs of some resources, savings of others can be observed.

If random event has a dual effect on the final results of entrepreneurship, has adverse and favorable consequences, then both should be equally taken into account when assessing risk. In other words, when determining the total possible losses, the gain that accompanies them should be subtracted from the calculated losses.

It is advisable to divide the losses that may be in entrepreneurial activity into material, labor, financial, loss of time, special types losses. Material types of losses manifest themselves in extra costs or direct losses of equipment, property, products, raw materials, energy, etc. that are not provided for by the entrepreneurial project. In relation to each individual of the listed types of losses, their own units of measurement are used. It is most natural to measure material losses in the same units in which the amount of a given type of material resources is measured, i.e. in physical units of weight, volume, area, etc.

However, it is not possible to bring together the losses measured in different units and express them in one value. You can not add kilograms and meters. Therefore, the calculation of losses in value terms, in monetary units, is inevitable. To do this, losses in the physical dimension are converted into a cost dimension by multiplying by the unit price of the corresponding material resource. For material resources, the cost of which is known, the losses can immediately be estimated in monetary terms. Having an estimate of the probable losses for each of the individual types of material resources in terms of value, it is realistic to bring them together, while observing the rules of action with random variables and their probabilities.

Labor losses represent the loss of working time caused by random, unforeseen circumstances. In direct measurement, labor losses are expressed in man-hours, man-days, or simply hours of working time. The translation of labor losses into value, monetary terms is carried out by multiplying labor hours by the cost (price) of one hour.

Financial losses- this is direct monetary damage associated with unforeseen payments, payment of fines, payment of additional taxes, loss of funds and securities. In addition, financial losses may occur in the event of a shortfall or non-receipt of money from the provided sources, in case of non-repayment of debts, non-payment by the buyer of the products supplied to him, a decrease in revenue due to a decrease in prices for products and services sold. Special types of monetary damage are associated with inflation, changes in the exchange rate of the ruble, additional to the legal withdrawal of funds from enterprises to the state (republican, local) budget. Along with irretrievable losses, there may also be temporary financial losses caused by the freezing of accounts, untimely disbursement of funds, and deferment of debt payments.

Waste of time exist when the process of entrepreneurial activity is slower than planned. A direct assessment of such losses is carried out in hours, days, weeks, months of delay in obtaining the intended result. In order to translate the assessment of time losses into a cost dimension, it is necessary to establish what losses of income, profits from entrepreneurship can lead to random losses of time.

Special types of losses take place in the form of damage to the health and life of people, the environment, the prestige of the entrepreneur, as well as due to other adverse social and moral and psychological consequences. Most often, special types of losses are extremely difficult to quantify, especially in value terms. For each of the types of losses, the initial assessment of the possibility of their occurrence and magnitude is made for a certain time, covering a month, a year, and the period of business operation. When conducting a comprehensive analysis of probable losses for risk assessment, it is important not only to identify all sources of risk, but also to identify which sources prevail.

It is necessary to further divide the probable losses into defining and incidental. When assessing entrepreneurial risk, collateral losses can be excluded in a quantitative assessment of the level of risk. If one type is singled out among the losses under consideration, which either in magnitude or in probability of occurrence is obviously greater than the others, then only it can be taken into account when quantifying the level of risk.

In principle, it is necessary to take into account only random losses that are not amenable to direct calculation, direct forecasting and therefore not taken into account in an entrepreneurial project. If losses can be foreseen in advance, then they should not be considered as losses, but as unavoidable expenses and be included in the estimated cost. Thus, the expected movement of prices, taxes, their change in the course of implementation economic activity the entrepreneur must take into account in the business plan.

Only due to the imperfection of the methods used to calculate business activity or insufficiently deep study of the business plan, systematic errors can be considered as losses in the sense that they can change the expected result for the worse. Therefore, before assessing the risk due to the action of purely random factors, it is highly desirable to separate the systematic component of the loss from the random ones.

Let us consider in more detail the structure of losses depending on the type of entrepreneurial activity, i.e. industrial, commercial and financial entrepreneurship. Let us characterize some specific sources of losses and the factors influencing them. These should include:
- losses from the impact of unforeseen political factors that generate political risk, which manifests itself in the form of an unexpected change in the conditions of economic activity due to political considerations and events, which creates an unfavorable background for the entrepreneur and thus can lead to increased costs of resources and loss of profit. Typical sources of such a risk are an increase in tax rates, the introduction of compulsory deductions, changes in contractual terms, the transformation of forms and relations of ownership, the alienation of property and funds for political reasons. The magnitude of possible losses and the degree of risk determined by them is very difficult to foresee;
- losses due to natural disasters, as well as theft and racketeering;
- losses caused by the imperfection of the methodology and the incompetence of persons who form a business plan and calculate profits and income. If, as a result of the action of such factors, the expected values ​​of profit and income from an entrepreneurial project are overestimated, and the actual results obtained are lower, then the difference is perceived as a loss. But, in reality, if the nominal values ​​of profit (income) were determined correctly, the threat of such losses could not be taken into account. If there was an overestimation of the estimated profit, then its "shortage" will certainly be considered damage, and the risk of such losses exists;

Losses of the entrepreneur due to dishonesty or insolvency of partners. The risk of being deceived in a transaction or facing the debtor's insolvency, debt irrecoverability, unfortunately, is quite real in Russia.

It is almost impossible to completely avoid risk, but knowing the source of losses, a businessman is able to reduce their threat, reduce the impact of adverse factors. Let us characterize the losses, the potential possibility of which generates entrepreneurial risk, in particular, in manufacturing business.

Decrease in the planned volumes of production and sales of products due to a decrease in labor productivity, equipment downtime or underutilization of production capacity, loss of working time, absence required amount raw materials, an increased percentage of rejects leads to a shortfall in planned revenue. Probable losses in this case in terms of value are determined by the product of the probable total decrease in the volume of output and the selling price of a unit of volume of production.

A decrease in prices at which it is planned to sell products due to insufficient quality, an unfavorable change in market conditions, a drop in demand, price inflation leads to probable losses determined by the product of a probable decrease in the price of a unit volume of products by the total volume of products planned for production and sale.

Increased material costs, due to the overspending of materials, raw materials, fuel, energy, lead to losses determined by the product of the probable overspending of a material resource for each type by the price of a resource unit. Other increased costs may be due to high transport costs, sales costs, overheads and other incidental costs. An overspending of the planned value of the wage fund is possible due to an excess of the estimated number or due to the payment of higher than planned wages to employees. It is also possible to pay increased deductions and taxes, if in the process of business the rates of deductions and taxes change in an unfavorable direction for the entrepreneur. The possibility of losses in the form of fines, natural attrition, and natural disasters should also not be overlooked, although it is very difficult to account for such losses in a calculated way.

Take place losses in business. Thus, an unfavorable change (increase) in the purchase price of goods in the process of implementing an entrepreneurial project, not blocked by the terms of the purchase agreement, leads to losses determined by the product of the volume of purchases of goods in the physical dimension by a probable increase in the purchase price. An unexpected decrease in the volume of purchases in comparison with the planned one causes a decrease in the volume of sales. The loss of profit (income) is calculated in this case as the product of the decrease in the volume of purchases by the amount of profit (income) attributable to a unit of volume of sales of goods. It should be borne in mind that a decrease in the volume of purchases and sales may be accompanied by a decrease in costs, because, in addition to the so-called semi-fixed costs, there are costs proportional to the volume of the operation.

Also important are the loss of goods in the process of circulation (transportation, storage) or loss of quality, consumer value of the goods, leading to a decrease in its value. The level of such damage is established as the product of the quantity of lost goods by the purchase price or the product of the damaged quantity of goods by the reduction in the selling price. An increase in distribution costs in comparison with the planned ones leads to an adequate decrease in income and profit. Among the possible reasons for the increase in costs may be unforeseen duties, deductions, fines, additional costs. A decrease in the price at which the product is sold, compared with the design one, causes a loss in the amount of the volume of sales multiplied by the decrease in price. A decrease in the volume of sales due to a drop in demand or demand for a product, its displacement by competing products, restrictions on sale, can cause loss of income and profit, measured by the product of the volume of unsold products by the selling price.

Sometimes quite serious losses in financial business. Financial entrepreneurship, in fact, is the same commercial one, but the goods in this case are money, securities, and currency. Consequently, the losses that are generally characteristic of commercial entrepreneurship are also inherent in financial entrepreneurship. But when assessing financial risk, it is necessary to take into account such specific factors as the insolvency of one of the agents of a financial transaction, changes in the exchange rate of money, currency, securities, restrictions on foreign exchange transactions, possible withdrawals of a certain part financial resources in the process of doing business.

Therefore, it is especially important for the conditions of Russia financial risk, which arises in the sphere of relations of the enterprise with banks and other financial institutions. The financial risk of a firm's activities is usually measured by the ratio of borrowed funds to equity: the higher this ratio, the more enterprise depends on creditors, the more serious is the financial risk, since the restriction or termination of lending, tightening of credit conditions usually entails difficulties and even stop production due to lack of raw materials, materials, etc. For the securities market, riskiness is a property of almost any transaction due to the fact that the effectiveness of the transaction is not fully known at the time of its conclusion. Some exceptions are government interest-bearing paper. But if you take into account the unpredictability of inflation or exchange rates, then the absence of risk, even in relation to US Treasury bills, is questionable.

The responsibility of the financial manager is to ensure that all types of risk are reduced, not just financial, because between various areas activities of the enterprise there are no clear boundaries. Risk and income in financial management are considered as two interrelated categories. They can be associated both with any particular type of assets, and with their combination.

There are various definitions of the concept of "risk". In the most general view risk is understood as the likelihood of losses or shortfalls in income compared to the predicted option. It is possible to formulate more detailed approaches to the definition of this concept. In particular, risk can be defined as the level of a certain financial loss, expressed in the possibility of not achieving the goal; in the uncertainty of the predicted result; in the subjectivity of its assessment. Assets that are associated with a relatively larger amount of possible losses are considered to be more risky. It is also possible to interpret risk as the degree of variability in income that can be obtained through the ownership of this type of asset. Thus, government securities have relatively little risk, since the variation in income on them is almost zero. On the contrary, an ordinary share of any company is a much more risky asset, since the income from such shares can significantly change and vary. The income provided by any asset consists of two elements: income from changes in the value of the asset and income from dividends received. Income calculated as a percentage of the original cost of an asset is called the return on that asset or the rate of return. For example, a businessman purchased a share of an enterprise at a price of 15,000 rubles a year ago. The current market price of the share was 16.7 thousand rubles, dividends received amounted to 1 thousand rubles. Then the profitability of this type of assets for the entrepreneur was /15.0=18%

Financial managers naturally tend to take risk into account in their work. At the same time, it is possible various options behavior, and hence the types of manager. But the key idea that guides the manager is that the required return and risk should change in the same direction (in proportion to each other). The risk is probable, therefore, its quantitative measurement cannot be unambiguous and predetermined. Depending on which method of calculating the risk is used, its value may vary.

The manager's willingness to take risks is usually formed under the influence of the results of the practical implementation of past similar decisions taken under conditions of uncertainty. The losses incurred dictate the choice of a cautious policy, while success encourages risk taking. Most people prefer low-risk options. At the same time, the attitude to risk largely depends on the amount of capital that the entrepreneur has.

In the course of evaluating alternative solutions, the manager has to predict possible outcomes. In this case, the decision is made in conditions when the manager can accurately assess the results of each of the alternative solutions. An example is investments in certificates of deposit and government bonds, where there is a government guarantee and it is known for sure that the interest agreed upon in the terms and conditions will be received on the invested funds.

Decisions made under risk include decisions with a known probability of obtaining any result. This occurs in conditions where it is impossible to assess the likelihood of possible outcomes. If the factors requiring analysis and accounting are very complex, and there is no reliable or sufficient information about them, then the probability of a particular result cannot be predicted more or less accurately. Uncertainty is characteristic of many decisions made in rapidly changing circumstances. This situation is well known to Russian entrepreneurs. In this case, the manager will try to obtain additional information, re-analyze the problem and, therefore, take into account its novelty and complexity, combining information and analysis results with accumulated experience. Sometimes it is useful to involve specialists in this work to compile expert assessments.

It is also possible to act in accordance with past experience and intuition, especially if there is no time to collect additional information or if the cost of it is very high. As business exposure to financial risk increases, many companies recognize that the search for solutions to risk problems must be professionalized; risk can be professionally managed. This circumstance forced many Russian companies to take a different look at the role and place of the head of the financial department (financier) of the company and radically change its functions. The duties of a financial manager were previously usually limited to ensuring cash reserves and the availability of credit funds if necessary. The manager was responsible for ensuring that the company's reserve funds were well invested. At present, the manager must more ensure that all assets and profits of the firm are protected from losses due to changes and fluctuations in interest rates and exchange rates. In many firms, in addition, the role of profit centers is increasing, which create conditions for generating income and profit through operations in the financial market and creating the tools and mechanisms necessary for such operations.

All commercial activities are subject to not one, but several types of financial risk. Characteristic, for example, is a political risk asset, or income abroad can be frozen or expropriated. There is also the risk of regulation (procedures accounting and the principles of taxation can be changed by the authorities). Economic risk, in particular where long-term contracts with foreign suppliers may be affected by changes.

A financial manager, through the collection and analysis of relevant information and its effective application, can bring great benefits to the company. In situations involving financial risk, the financier is obliged to find optimal solution. This is a common - a situation of risk related to interest and exchange rates. Today there are few firms in Russia that can function without external loans. As a rule, the board of the company considers a loan as a more reasonable step than the issue of additional shares. But interest must be paid in this case in the prescribed amounts, regardless of the profitability of the company. The manager, therefore, must manage the cost by percentage. For many companies, it is not possible to implement long-term loans on a fixed rate basis, since the supply of long-term loans on this basis is very limited. The impact of sharp jumps in interest rates is also felt in terms of the movement of cash budgets and creates complications in tax planning.

Even companies that do not operate internationally are exposed to foreign exchange risk as their domestic markets may be diverted to foreign suppliers. Thus, Lukoil is a concern that conducts all of its operations in Russia in ruble terms. If the exchange rate of the ruble changes against other currencies, oil from the Persian Gulf may become more attractive to many of its consumers. Most companies are involved in international business to some extent, subject to changes in the price of the company's assets and funds relative to foreign currencies. Thus, European car manufacturers exporting products to the United States suffered heavy losses due to the depreciation of the US dollar against the pound sterling and the German mark - the price of European products on the American market turned out to be too high, or they were forced to put up with low profits. . For Japanese automakers who have experienced this problem before and set up manufacturing facilities in the US to solve it, new problem became negative impact on the balance sheet of the parent company, a sudden drop in the value of their US investment in value terms.

Here are the main methods for reducing the degree of risk: Diversification, which is a process of distribution of invested funds between various capital investment objects that are not directly related to each other, in order to reduce the degree of risk and loss of income; diversification allows you to avoid part of the risk in the distribution of capital between various activities (for example, the purchase by an investor of shares of five different joint-stock companies instead of the shares of one company, it increases the probability of its average income by five times and, accordingly, reduces the degree of risk by five times). Acquisition of additional information about the choice and results. More complete information allows you to make an accurate forecast and reduce risk, which makes it very valuable. Limitation- this is the establishment of a limit, that is, the maximum amount of expenses, sales, loans, etc., used by banks to reduce the degree of risk when issuing loans, business entities for selling goods on credit, providing loans, determining the amount of capital investment, etc. At self-insurance the entrepreneur prefers to insure himself, rather than buying insurance from an insurance company; self-insurance is a decentralized form, the creation of in-kind and monetary insurance funds directly in economic entities, especially in those whose activities are at risk; The main task of self-insurance is to promptly overcome temporary difficulties in financial and commercial activities. Insurance- protection of the property interests of economic entities and citizens in the event of the occurrence of certain events (insured events) at the expense of monetary funds formed from the insurance premiums they pay. The legal norms of insurance in the Russian Federation are established by law.

Insurance should be considered in more detail. It is an economic category, the essence of which is the distribution of damage among all insurance participants. This is a kind of cooperation to combat the consequences natural Disasters and contradictions within society arising from economic relations between members of society. Insurance performs four functions: risk, preventive, savings, control. Content risk function expressed in compensation for risk. Within the framework of this function, the monetary form of value is redistributed between insurance participants in connection with the consequences of random insured events. The risk function of insurance is the main one, because insurance risk is directly related to the main purpose of insurance to compensate for material damage to victims.

Appointment warning function insurance is the financing at the expense of the insurance fund of measures to reduce the insured risk. Content savings function is that with the help of insurance funds are saved for survival. This saving is caused by the need for insurance coverage of the achieved family wealth. Essence control function expressed in control over the strictly targeted formation and use of the insurance fund.

Insurance can be carried out in mandatory and voluntary forms. Compulsory insurance is insurance provided by law. The types, conditions and procedure for conducting compulsory insurance are determined by the relevant legislative acts of the Russian Federation. Compulsory insurance costs are included in the cost of production. Voluntary insurance carried out on the basis of an agreement between the insured and the insurer.

Financial Manager constantly faced with the problem of choosing sources of funding. The peculiarity is that the maintenance of one or another source costs the enterprise differently. Each source has its price. Decisions of a financial nature will be accurate to the extent that information is objective and sufficient. The level of objectivity depends on the extent to which the capital market corresponds to an efficient market. Risk management is based on a targeted search and organization of work to reduce the degree of risk, the art of obtaining and increasing income (profit, profit) in an uncertain economic situation. The ultimate role of risk management is fully consistent with objective function entrepreneurship. It consists in obtaining the greatest profit with the optimal ratio of profit and risk.

Risk assessment is an essential component of the overall risk management system. According to ISO/IEC standards, risk assessment is the process of analyzing risk and measuring its magnitude in a quantitative, qualitative or mixed way.

Quantitative risk assessment provides the most accurate solutions. However, the implementation of a quantitative assessment also encounters the greatest difficulties associated with the fact that appropriate initial information is needed for a quantitative assessment of risks. In Russia, the information services market is still very poorly developed and it is often difficult to obtain actual data that needs to be collected and processed.

Due to these difficulties associated with a lack of information, time, and sometimes the impossibility of carrying out this calculation due to the lack of necessary data, a relative risk assessment based on an analysis of the financial condition of an enterprise is of particular interest today. This is one of the most accessible risk assessment methods for both the company and its partners.

In the theory of financial management, depending on the

methods distinguish the following main systems of financial analysis,

conducted at the enterprise: horizontal analysis, vertical analysis,

comparative analysis, analysis of coefficients, integral analysis. Each type of analysis has its own specifics:

Horizontal (or trend) analysis is based on the study

dynamics of individual financial indicators over time. In progress

using this scorecard financial reporting for a number of periods and the general trends of their change (or trend) are determined. Romanov V. The concept of risks and their classification as the main element of risk theory // Money and credit No. 1. 2009.

Vertical (or structural) analysis is based on the structural decomposition of individual indicators of the financial statements of the enterprise. In the process of this analysis, the share of individual structural components of aggregated financial indicators is calculated.

Integral analysis allows you to get the most in-depth (multi-factor) assessment of the conditions for the formation of individual aggregated financial indicators. Analysis financial ratios(R-analysis) is based on the calculation of the ratio of various absolute indicators of the financial activity of the enterprise among themselves. In the process of using this system of analysis, various relative indicators are determined that characterize the individual results of financial activity and the level of the financial condition of the organization. They numerically express the risk of unfavorable development of the financial situation in the enterprise. Davydova G.V., Belikov A.Yu. Methodology for quantitative assessment of the risk of bankruptcy of enterprises // Risk Management No. 3. 2007.

In financial management, one of the most widely used groups of analytical coefficients is the group of coefficients for assessing the financial stability of an enterprise. The financial stability ratios directly make it possible to identify the level of financial risk associated with the structure of the sources of capital formation of the enterprise, and, accordingly, the degree of its financial stability in the process of future development, determine the likelihood of violation of obligations under the enterprise's settlements, and develop measures to eliminate them.

The next way to assess risk is risk assessment based on cost-benefit analysis. Cost feasibility analysis is associated with the establishment of potential areas caused by a change in the parameters of factors under the influence of newly emerging situations.

Here it is necessary to reveal the essence of the concept of areas of risk. A risk area is a zone of general market losses, within which losses do not exceed the limit value of the established risk level.

For any enterprise, there are five main areas of risk consequences:

1. Risk free area;

2. The area of ​​minimum risk is characterized by the level of losses, not

in excess of net income.

3. The high-risk area is characterized by a level of losses that does not exceed the size of the calculated profit.

4. The area of ​​critical risk is characterized by the fact that within the boundaries of this zone, losses are possible, the value of which exceeds the size of the estimated profit, but does not exceed the size of the expected income.

5. The area of ​​unacceptable risk is characterized by the fact that within this zone, the expected losses can exceed the amount of expected income from the operation and reach a value equal to the size of own funds, that is, the onset of complete bankruptcy of the enterprise. Knight F.H. Risk, uncertainty and profit. M.: Delo, 2012.- p. 360.

To make the right decisions, real quantitative characteristics of reliability and risk are needed, and not their imitation. They must have clear content. Such characteristics can only be probabilities. When making decisions, both objective and subjective probabilities can be used. The first can be calculated on the basis of indicators of accounting and statistical reporting.

The variety of indicators, through which quantitative assessment is carried out, gives rise to a variety of risk scales, which are a kind of recommendations for the acceptability of a particular risk level. Based on the generalization of the results of research by many authors on the problem of quantitative risk assessment, below is an empirical risk scale that managers are recommended to use when they use the probability of a risk event as a quantitative risk assessment. Egorova E.E. Systems approach risk assessment // Risk Management No. 1. 2009.

Table 1 Risk scale

There is enough a large number of methods and technologies

risk analysis.

For instance:

Marketing research

Testing

Business process analysis

Event tree

SWOT analysis ( Strengths, weaknesses,

opportunities, threats)

Statistical analysis

Modeling existing options

Measurement of underlying trends and variance

Threat Analysis

Error tree, etc. Mamaeva LN Risk management. M.: Dashkov and Co., 2009. - p.256.

Different organizations apply different methods of risk analysis,

measuring the consequences and probabilities of events. It remains for the expert to choose a number of individual financial indicators, which can be said to best characterize certain aspects of the activity.

enterprises and at the same time form a complete set, giving a comprehensive idea of ​​the enterprise as a whole. The choice of a system of indicators for analysis is an art acquired by long experience in analysis. There are no two enterprises for which the same indicators would be equally well suited. Their significance is different, and therefore the expert faces the difficult task of selecting, ranking the factors of analysis and identifying the risks of the organization.

The description of the risk serves as the basis for the formation of a "risk map"

an organization that summarizes the data on the description of the risk operating

control mechanisms, planned measures to reduce the level of risk, responsible for the measures priority areas in terms of risk management, determine the most effective methods control.

At the same time, both the requirements of the federal legislation “On Insolvency (Bankruptcy)”, the realities of the Russian financial market, and the level of management in the field of financial risk management are taken into account.

Thus, multivariate statistical analysis of financial

the stability of the enterprise allows not only to answer the question whether the enterprise is on the verge of bankruptcy or not, but also to identify the main reasons for the deterioration of the financial condition of the enterprise, to assess the factors that determine the state environment business and develop measures to reduce financial risks that threaten the enterprise with bankruptcy.