The market for chemical goods. Market of chemical industry goods

The turnover of world trade in chemical industry products in 1999 exceeded $1,100 billion.

For a clearer idea of ​​the capacity of the chemical goods market, it is advisable to provide data on the regions of the world, % of the volume of world trade in chemical nomenclature:
Western Europe - 32
including EU - 29
USA - 26
Japan - 18
Other Asian countries - 11
Central and of Eastern Europe - 5
Latin America - 4.

Thus, there are three largest markets for chemical products in the world: Western Europe, the USA and Japan. A powerful Asian market is being formed, but due to its geographical scale - from Turkey to Indonesia and South Korea- difficult for system analysis.

The range of goods produced by the chemical industry is huge and is increasing year by year. This is dictated by the requirements of the market, the technological development of the world economy. The structure of goods manufactured by the industry of Western Europe, % of turnover, is as follows:
pharmaceutical products - 23;
products of organic chemistry (aliphatic, heterocyclic aromatic compounds, organic solvents) - 15;
plastics and synthetic rubber - 13:
perfumery and cosmetic products - 8;
paints and varnishes - 6;
inorganic compounds (soda products, acids, ammonia, potassium and phosphorus-containing compounds, etc.) - 5-6:
surfactants (soap, washing powders) - 5;
pesticides - 3;
dyes and pigments - 3;
chemical fibers - 2.

The structure of goods produced by the USA and Japan is approximately the same. In any case, the above example may well serve as a guide. Hundreds of firms are involved in the production of chemical goods in the world, but relatively few of them can produce a wide range of products. There are a small number of companies that are engaged in both organic and inorganic chemistry. The monopolization of the chemical industry in the world is a rather amorphous phenomenon. However, high-quality products are produced, as a rule, by concerns with a well-deserved reputation, known since 19th century. Few people know, for example, that after World War II, after Nuremberg Trials, the German IG Farbenindustric was divided into three companies, which today are the largest companies in the world in the field of chemistry, competing almost exclusively with each other. We are talking about Hoechst, BASF and Bayer. Aggregate indicators of other companies are still lower, although there is no reason to doubt the reputation of DuPont, Mitsubishi Chemical and others.

So, the share of the 30 largest chemical companies in the world accounts for approximately 1/3 of the turnover of the chemical industry.

In the late 1990s, 18 companies registered in Western Europe, accounted for 18% of the world market with a turnover of approximately $ 200 billion. Eight American companies accounted for 7% of the world market with a turnover of $ 80 billion. Four Japanese companies accounted for 4% and $ 35 billion of turnover. In the top ten companies in the world, the leading positions are occupied by the German firms Hoechst, BASF and Bayer mentioned above. They have a turnover of about 90 billion dollars a year. The seven others, including DuPont, Dow, Ciba-Geigy, Rhone-Poulenc, and others, cost $116-120 billion.

General characteristics of the world market

In 1996, the volume of the world market for chemical products amounted to 962 billion euros, in 2006 this figure amounted to 1,641 billion euros. According to experts' forecasts, by 2010 the volume of the world market for chemical products will reach $2,400 billion.

In the context of global changes taking place in the world market of the chemical and petrochemical industry, the problem of providing cheap raw materials is especially acute. This process results in increased monopolization of the world market. Solving the problems of individual companies does not guarantee a solution to the problem of the high cost of chemical products for the global economy as a whole - especially since within large companies the desire for accelerated investment in unraveling raw material restrictions may weaken. As a result, the growth rate of the sector in physical terms may slow down significantly in the future, especially if environmental restrictions increase in parallel and alternative supply of materials from the metallurgical and timber industries develops.

Changes in the geography of world production and consumption of chemical products

Global changes in the geography of world production and consumption of chemical products determine a powerful shift towards new industrial and developing countries.

Currently, companies from developing countries (China, India, Saudi Arabia, Mexico) are joining the traditional centers of production and trade in chemical and petrochemical products, such as the USA, Western Europe, and Japan, while the positions of the former are weakening.

Thus, the growth rate of production of chemicals in the Asia-Pacific region in 2001-2006. amounted to 6.9% per year, Latin America - 4.3% against 1.5% in the EU countries. The Chinese chemical industry has already reached the 3rd place in the world in terms of production volume (after the USA and Japan): in 2006, China's share in world trade in chemical industry products was 10.3%, and the share of Asian region was 33.3%.

In the long term, there will be certain changes in the specialization of regions. In the near future, Western chemical producers will face problems caused by the high cost of raw materials, the growing capital intensity of new projects, the slow growth of labor productivity and the high cost of work force. Under these conditions, petrochemical plants in Western countries may lose their competitiveness compared to the Middle East by 2010, which will lead to a reduction in the production of chemical and petrochemical products in Western countries. However, Western Europe and North America will remain the largest consumers and producers of chemical products, while their main niche will be the production of high-tech products with high added value. Developing countries, especially those rich in hydrocarbon raw materials, will strengthen their role in the world chemical industry as producers of basic raw materials and bulk materials.

Over the next few years, developing countries will focus on saturating domestic demand. In the future, these countries will become the main competitors of the traditional world leaders.

Already at present, developing countries are building up their potential in the global chemical and petrochemical market due to relatively low prices for hydrocarbon raw materials in these countries, which explains the high price competitiveness of their products. In the world market of nitrogen and phosphate fertilizers, plastics, ammonia, methanol and other products, the main competitors of traditional leaders will be suppliers from the Persian Gulf and North Africa, where natural gas prices are relatively low.

In the next ten years, the highest growth rates in consumption volumes (6-10% per year) will be characteristic of the group of plastics (polymer products, construction materials). This is due to the fact that polymer chemistry products demonstrate an ever-increasing competitiveness in comparison with metal, wood and other materials.

According to the WTO, China will remain the most promising market for chemical products in the near future. China is already rapidly developing own production chemical and petrochemical products previously purchased in Russia.

General trends among petrochemical producers

Due to the growing competition from developing countries, the world's leading companies will be forced to adjust their development strategy.

The most successful companies will be those producing products with high added value (pharmaceuticals, progressive types of plastics, etc.);

The traditional strategy based on effective management assets and cost minimization will be gradually replaced by a strategy based on the effective management of the know-how and skills that the company has to effectively use its internal potential.

The tightening of environmental standards will stimulate the transition of companies to highly efficient environmentally friendly technologies (in particular, the REACH program has been introduced within the framework of the Western European market of chemical and petrochemical products, aimed at manufacturing products that ensure the safety of people and the environment).

In the future, we should expect the emerging trend towards the integration of chemical and petrochemical companies with oil and gas companies, stimulated by the growth in the cost of hydrocarbon raw materials, to continue. The global chemical industry is expected to become even more consolidated. Already at present, the global chemical and petrochemical business is represented by large transnational companies. feature special types chemical products, primarily structural materials is the continuous improvement of their consumer properties. This leads to the concentration of production in the leading countries and limits the possibility of spatial propagation of technological waves. In addition, large transnational corporations that regulate the spread of production of new products in the world are becoming an innovative basis for technological development.

New products and technologies

The innovative activity of manufacturers in the future will remain a hallmark of the industry, and the results of this activity can potentially significantly strengthen the role of the industry in the global economy.

Among the most important developments carried out abroad are:

development of polymers and composites based on them, opening up the possibility of fundamentally new design solutions;

processes based on biochemical and physical methods of acceleration chemical reactions(membrane, laser, electrochemical technologies);

conversions natural gas into liquid hydrocarbons to expand the raw material base of large-scale production.

In general, in the context of high hydrocarbon prices, the main competitive advantage leading world companies of the chemical complex will be:

1) Innovations in the field of technologies and products, including the development of resource-saving technologies.

At present, the problem of providing the chemical industry with cheap hydrocarbon raw materials is being solved by increasing specific gravity gas raw materials (ethane, propane, butane). USA, Canada, Germany, Saudi Arabia technologies for processing natural gas and gas condensate are being developed. They allow to achieve high manufacturability and cost-effectiveness of production, while ensuring compliance with modern norms environmental safety.

2) emphasis on small high-tech production lines (production of small-tonnage chemical products).

Many chemical companies in developed countries are closing production in the chemical markets of large-tonnage products due to the loss of competitiveness due to high prices for raw materials, diversifying investments towards high technologies of deep processing with the production of science-intensive small-tonnage products. Such specialized lines are effective because they are supported by high prices for unique products.

We emphasize that the basis of world progress in the chemical industry is the demand for unique materials that increase competitiveness. mass species products (cars, fabrics, household appliances, etc.). This ensures a constant process of modernization of the relevant industries and giving it a global character.

According to the results of the first half of 2016, the output of chemical products in in kind increased by 5.2% compared to the same period in 2015. Despite the positive dynamics, production growth was uneven in terms of various types products. This is due to the shutdown of some plants for planned maintenance, plant failures, modernization programs and the construction of new production facilities that have not yet been commissioned or have not reached design capacity.

At the same time, some enterprises increased output, resumed work after the accident, increased production capacity, put new workshops into operation, and launched factories.

The leaders in terms of production are enterprises producing chemicals plant protection (+51.8% (57.59 thousand tons), pigments (+19% (15.9 thousand tons), varnishes and paints (+17.2% (86.2 thousand tons), chemical fibers and threads (+13.2% (675.5 thousand tons), plastics (+8.7% (2,300 thousand tons).

Share of shipment of goods chemical production increased compared to 2015 from 10.6% to 11.3% in the volume of shipment of all goods of manufacturing industries.

2. Export and import of chemical products 2

Export

Far Abroad:

The physical volume of exports has increased since 2012 from 3 to 12% annually. For the first half of 2016, it decreased by 3.4%, thereby returning to the figure of 2014. The value volume has been declining since 2012 by 4-12% annually. For the first half of 2016, there was a sharp decrease by 27.4%. Revenues from the export of chemical products have decreased by about 40% since 2012, due to a decrease in prices for hydrocarbon raw materials in the world. Despite this, the share of exports of chemical products has increased since 2012 from 5.1% to 6.2%.

CIS:

Increase in the share of exports of chemical products from 10.4% to 16.2% from 2012 to 2016. The value volume has been declining by 5-16% since 2013, while the physical volume has increased from 6 to 16.5% annually.

Import 3

Far Abroad:

The physical volume has been decreasing since 2014 from 5.5% to 15%. For the first half of 2016, it slightly increased by 4.5%. The share of imports of chemical products has increased since 2012 from 16.1% to 19.6% compared to the current period. After a sharp decrease in value for 2014, 2015, the rate of decrease slowed down in 2016 and amounted to 3.7% at the moment.

CIS:

The physical volume decreased during 2012-2015, but since 2016 there has been a positive trend, and at the moment the growth is 17.5%. The share of imports of chemical products from the CIS increased from 10% to 14.8%. At the same time, there has been a decline in value since 2013 by 6-19% annually.

3. State support 3

Dynamics of investments in fixed assets in the Russian Federation within the chemical industry, % to the previous year:

The degree of dependence on imports is gradually decreasing, but still remains high level(from 23 to 50.2% for such types of products as plastics, coatings, tires, chemical fibers and threads)

Since the beginning of 2016, 10 projects have been implemented in the chemical industry as part of the Strategy and the Import Substitution Plan.

Action plan for import substitution in the chemical industry Russian Federation: 84 projects, 55 organizations of the chemical complex, 33 subjects of the Russian Federation.

As part of the strategy for the development of the chemical and petrochemical complex for the period up to 2030: 199 projects of the chemical complex, total amount investments over 1 trillion. rub.

At the moment, roadmaps for the development of sub-sectors of the chemical complex are being finalized:

• production of mineral fertilizers
• production of plastic products
• production of paints and varnishes
• tire production
• production of chemical fibers and threads
• Production of small-tonnage products.

1 - Sources: Rosstat, Ministry of Industry and Trade

The chemical industry is one of the youngest branches of the world industry, which is now included in its "vanguard three", along with metallurgy and mechanical engineering. This industry includes the mining and chemical industry (extraction of chemical raw materials); basic chemistry(production of salts, acids, alkalis, mineral fertilizers) and chemistry of organic synthesis: production of initial products of organic synthesis, production polymer materials(synthetic resins and plastics, chemical fibers, synthetic rubber, etc.) and their processing into finished products. The chemical industry also includes pharmaceuticals, the industry of chemical reagents and highly pure substances, varnishes and paints, household chemicals etc. The specifics of the industry include a wide variety of raw materials used, the equipment and technology used. The raw material base for the chemical industry is all types of combustible minerals (gas, oil, shale), mineral raw materials (potash, table and other salts, phosphorites, apatites, sulfur), as well as many types of waste from the production of ferrous and non-ferrous metals and the chemical industry itself. industry.

International trade chemical industry products in 2007 exceeded $1,460 billion (Table 12.5).

Table 12.5. Foreign trade in chemical products, billion dollars

Source: in the global chemical industry. BIKI. 2007. No. 64. P. 14.

For a clearer understanding of the capacity chemical goods market it is advisable to provide data by regions of the world, as a percentage of the volume of world trade by chemical nomenclature:

• Western Europe - 32%;
• including the EU - 29%;
• USA - 26%;
• Japan - 18%;
• other Asian countries - 11%;
• countries of Central and Eastern Europe - 5%;
• Latin America - 4%.

Thus, three largest markets for chemical products have developed in the world, associated with the peculiarities of the development and location of the chemical industry in the world. The leading region is Western Europe, which provides 32% of the products of the world chemical industry (by value). And the production of this industry per capita is higher than in the United States (the largest producer of chemical products). The leaders in the production of chemical products in Western Europe are Germany (more than 1/4 of production), France, Great Britain, Italy. Four of the world's five largest transnational chemical corporations are European.

Second major region with a developed chemical industry is North America (about 30% of world production, with 26% accounted for by the United States). The countries of the region have their own major raw materials for the chemical industry. The USA and Canada stand out against the world background as the largest producers and exporters of mineral fertilizers, explosives, pharmaceuticals, synthetic and polymeric materials.

A new region with a developed chemical industry has formed - Asian. This region accounts for 40% of global chemical consumption. The share of Asia in the world in the production of chemical products is slightly lower - less than 30%. However, Asia has already outstripped other regions of the world in the production of some chemical products (for example, in the production of mineral fertilizers, chemical fibers). Japan, China and the "newly industrialized countries" stand out. With very limited resources, Japan has created a well-developed chemical industry (in the production of many types of chemical goods it ranks 2nd or 3rd in the world, and even surpasses Germany in the production of polymers). The production of cheap chemicals is decreasing in the country, but science-intensive industries continue to develop (the production of new polymers, including polymers with memory, the so-called intelligent polymers that restore color and shape; biotechnological production, pharmaceuticals, etc.).

The range of goods produced by the chemical industry is huge and is increasing year by year. This is dictated by the requirements of the market, the technological development of the world economy. If we take the structure of goods produced by the industry of Western Europe, then the picture will look like this (% of turnover):

• pharmaceutical products - 23;
• products of organic chemistry (aliphatic and heterocyclic aromatic compounds, organic solvents) - 15;
• plastics and synthetic rubber - 13;
• perfumery and cosmetic products - 8;
• paintwork materials - 6;
• inorganic compounds (soda products, acids, ammonia, potassium and phosphorus-containing compounds, metal inorganic compounds) - 5-6;
• surfactants (soap, washing powders) - 5;
• pesticides - 3;
• dyes and pigments - 3;
• chemical fibers - 2.

The structure of goods produced by the USA and Japan is approximately the same. In any case, the above example may well serve as a guide.

Hundreds of firms are involved in the production of chemical goods in the world, but relatively few of them can produce a wide range of products. There are few companies involved in both organic and inorganic chemistry. The monopolization of the chemical industry in the world is a rather amorphous phenomenon. However, high-quality products are produced, as a rule, by concerns with a well-deserved reputation, known since the last century. Few people know, for example, that after the Second World War and the Nuremberg trials, the German IG Farbenindustry was divided into three companies, which today are the largest companies in the world in the field of chemistry, competing almost exclusively with each other. We are talking about the companies "Hoechst", BASF, "Bauer". Aggregate indicators of other companies are still lower, although there is no reason to doubt the reputation of Dupont, Mitsubishi Chemical and others.

So, the share of the 30 largest chemical companies in the world accounts for approximately 1/3 of the turnover of the chemical industry. In 1995, 18 companies listed in Western Europe accounted for 18% of the world market with a turnover of about $200 billion, and eight American companies - 7% of the world market with a turnover of $80 billion. Four Japanese companies accounted for 4% and $35 billion of turnover. In the top ten companies in the world, the leading positions are occupied by the German firms mentioned above, whose turnover is about $ 90 billion per year. Seven others, including Dupont, Dow, Rone-Poulence, have a turnover of 116-120 billion dollars.

Among European pharmaceutical companies, the highest growth rates are also for the Swiss concern Roche. Its sales in 2005 increased by 25% compared to 2004; profits also increased significantly thanks to the marketing of the latest cancer and influenza drugs. Experts expect that in the near future, Roche will be able to outperform its competitors.

The German group "Boehringer Ingelheim" is developing dynamically thanks to its latest drugs for the treatment of diseases of the upper respiratory tract, of cardio-vascular system and painkillers. Experts estimate the increase in turnover in last years almost 25%. Other European producers, such as Novartis, Sanofi-Anentis, Astra-Zeneca and the Danish Novo Nordisk, are experiencing strong sales growth.

The dominant role is played by large companies, which account for 3-5% of the total number of chemical firms and 60-70% of the world's products. Medium-sized companies, whose specific interest ranges from 20-25%, produce 15-20% of the industry's products. Small firms with less than 50 employees produce about 10% of the volume of chemical products. Big Picture changes somewhat when it comes to medium and small businesses. Here, the position of the American biotechnological industry, represented by a number of fast-growing pharmaceutical manufacturing companies, turns out to be stronger. Those European firms that have previously acquired assets or merged with American companies this profile. Indicative in this regard is the example of the Roche concern, which by the early 1990s had acquired a large stake in the pioneers of biotechnology in the United States and provided it with significant financial support for many years.