Topic: Essence and methods of social forecasting. social forecasting

Encyclopedia of Plants 14.10.2019

A forecast is a prediction, a prediction based on certain data. A plan is a plan of work planned for a certain period. Forecasting and planning are the conditions for the successful operation of any organization.

Forecasting allows you to reveal stable trends, or, conversely, significant changes in socio-economic processes, assess their likelihood for the future planning period, identify possible alternatives, accumulate scientific and empirical material for a reasonable choice of one or another development concept or planned decision.

Forecasting and planning methods have been enriched and improved at an accelerating pace since the 1970s. Two factors play a special role in this:

1) economic crises of the last quarter of the 20th century. forced economists and managers to different countries find new adequate management methods;

2) rapid spread information technologies and computer technology, these tools have made prospective analysis and forecasting available to the public.

Is it possible to foresee, predict the onset of crises? Is it possible to prepare for them or avoid them altogether? Is it possible to identify the factors that determine the success of the economic development of the state? How to act in order to achieve prosperity and success? It is almost always possible to answer these questions: the success of any business is half ensured by effective forecasting and planning.

Forecast is a scientific and analytical stage of the planning process. The forecast determines the possibilities within which realistic tasks of planning the development of the economy or the work of an enterprise can be set.

The relevance of the topic of the work is determined by the fact that forecasting is necessary for realistic planning of economic and social processes: it is impossible to develop an effective system of actions without short-term and long-term forecasts of the political and economic situation.

The aim of the work is to study the essence and methods of socio-economic forecasting.

To achieve this goal, the following tasks were solved in the work:

The essence, principles, functions of socio-economic forecasting are considered;

The classification is given and the main methods of socio-economic forecasting are described;

The issue of forecasting social phenomena based on the time series of Wolf numbers is considered.

The subject of this work is forecasting methods, their essence and classification.

Chapter 1. Essence and methods of social forecasting

1.1. Concept, classification of forecasts

Forecast is a probabilistic scientifically based judgment about the prospects, possible states of a particular phenomenon in the future and (or) about alternative ways and timing of their implementation.

A typology of forecasts can be built on various grounds, depending on the goals, objects, problems, lead time, nature, etc.

The problem-target criterion is fundamental: what is the forecast for? There are two types of forecasts:

1. Search (exploratory, trend, genetic). The search forecast answers the question: what is most likely to happen if the development trends of the object continue. The search forecast is built on a certain scale (field) of possibilities, on which the degree of probability of the predicted state of the object is then established.

2. Normative (target, regulatory). A normative forecast is a determination of the ways and timing of achieving the desired states of an object or phenomenon, taken as a goal, and answers the question: in what ways to achieve the desired. With normative forecasting, the same probability distribution occurs, but in the reverse order: from a given state to observed trends. A normative forecast is a probabilistic description of alternative ways to achieve the desired states of an object, including the development of measures to implement these states.

According to the object, forecasts are divided into:

1) social - determining future changes in:

A person, his needs, interests, social status, health, education;

In relations between social groups, layers;

The state of the social sphere;

2) economic are used to predict the general state of the economy, industry, enterprise, changes in the structure of reproduction, in labor markets, demand for professions, in management;

3) political - defining changes in the alignment political forces, in the relations of social groups to parties and leaders, in political orientations; political forecasts are used to forecast election results and other political events;

4) scientific and technical - determining the dynamics of the productive forces, discoveries and inventions, the change of generations and models of technology, the change in technology;

5) environmental, allowing to predict the dynamics of natural processes, disasters, their consequences, areas of activity for the protection environment and reproduction of natural resources and others.

Forecasts can have a different lead time - from short-term (for example, daily, associated with stock fluctuations) to long-term (by tens) and ultra-long-term. The first are more detailed. The longer the forecast horizon, the greater value have theoretical studies and the duration of the retrospective (foundation time) of the forecast.

In countries with economies in transition, short-term forecasts are most in demand both by analysts and government agencies(government, parliament) different levels management.

Medium-term forecasts for the period correspond to the time of functioning of government bodies. An example of a long-term forecast is the results of population projections for the period up to 2050, according to which India will surpass China in terms of population.

The nature of the forecast is not the same. It can determine any one characteristic of an object (indicator) or be complex for an enterprise, city, region, country.

1.2. The concept of socio-economic forecasting

Forecasting is a science-based prediction of the most probable state, trends and features of the development of a managed object in the prospective period based on the identification and correct assessment of stable links and dependencies between the past, present and future.

As Antokhonova I.V. notes, a distinctive feature of forecasting is that it substantiates the emergence of such processes and forms of the material and spiritual life of society, which in this moment inaccessible to direct perception, as well as verification in practice.

One of the important directions of forecasting community development is socio-economic forecasting - a scientific discipline that has as its object a socio-economic system, and the subject is the knowledge of the possible states of functioning objects in the future, the study of patterns and methods for developing economic forecasts.

Socio-economic forecasting is based on the achievements of science in the field of knowledge of the laws of development of society, clarification of trends in socio-economic and technological progress.

For predictable social objects, the intensity of the relationship between foresight and control can be so high that it can change the predicted state through actions taken based on managerial decisions. In other words, managerial decisions lead to “self-fulfillment” or “self-destruction” of the forecast. In prognostication, this is called the “Oedipus effect.”

An important role in improving economic forecasting, increasing the reliability of the developed forecasts, also belongs to the applied scientific discipline that studies the patterns and methods for developing forecasts for the development of objects of any nature - forecasting, including economic forecasting.

Forecasting is closely related to statistics and is largely based on statistical data and methods for studying mass phenomena.

Of particular importance at present is applied statistics, which adapts the methods of multivariate statistical analysis to the solution of socio-economic problems. In this case, the following tasks are solved: typology (classification) or the identification of classes that are homogeneous in a certain sense; reducing the dimension of the data space under study and restoring (forecasting) the values of dependent indicators based on the values of a certain set of independent features.

Econometrics is a scientific discipline that combines a set of theoretical results, techniques, methods and models designed to, on the basis of economic theory, economic statistics and mathematical-statistical methods to give a specific quantitative expression to the general patterns due to economic theory.

Thus, the above disciplines are closely related to each other, the essential point is the obligatory methodological component in the form of economic theory.

1.3. Main functions and principles of forecasting

We list the methodological principles that form the constructive basis for the development and use of applied forecasting methods:

1. The principle of consistency. This principle requires considering the object of forecasting as a system of interrelated characteristics of the object and the forecast background in accordance with the goals and objectives of the study.

This principle also implies the construction of a forecast based on a system of methods and models characterized by a certain hierarchy and sequence.

2. The principle of adequacy of the forecast to objective regularities characterizes not only the process of identification, but also the assessment of stable trends and relationships in the development of the economy and the creation of a theoretical analogue of real economic processes with their complete and accurate imitation.

3. The principle of alternative forecasting is associated with the possibility of developing the object of study and its individual elements along different trajectories, with different relationships and structural relationships.

Alternativeness comes from the assumption of the possibility of qualitatively various options economic development.

4. The principle of validity or reliability. Necessary condition the development of a reliable forecast is the knowledge of the objective laws of the development of processes, the identification of stable trends based on them. This knowledge should be based on a deep study of the achievements of applied development of forecasts. The implementation of this principle in practical research is ensured by the appropriate quality of the forecast and the assessment of the reliability and accuracy of the result.

5. The principle of observability. The choice of a specific forecasting method largely depends on the availability and quality of the information base (sufficient and reliable statistical data)

The main forecasting functions are:

Analysis of processes and trends;

Study of the objective relationships of socio-economic phenomena in the development of the object of forecasting in specific conditions in a certain period;

Evaluation of the forecasting object;

Identification of development alternatives;

Assessment of the consequences of decisions made;

Accumulation of scientific material for a reasonable choice of solutions.

When implementing certain forecasting functions, it is necessary to determine the approaches that form the basis of forecasting.

1.4. Forecasting methods and their classification

According to some scientists, there are more than 150 forecasting methods. There are much fewer basic methods, many of the "methods" rather refer to separate forecasting methods and procedures, or are a set of separate techniques that differ from the basic methods in the number of particular techniques and the sequence of their application.

The forecasting method is understood as a set of techniques and ways of thinking that allow, based on the analysis of retrospective data, exogenous (external) and endogenous (internal) connections of the object of forecasting, as well as their measurement within the framework of the phenomenon or process under consideration, to derive judgments of a certain reliability regarding the future development of the object.

In many cases, none of the methods by itself can provide the required degree of reliability and accuracy of the forecast, but, when used in certain combinations with others, it turns out to be very effective - the advantages of one method compensate for the shortcomings of another, or they are used in development.

An objective need to combine different methods often arises when developing forecasts for the development of processes characterized by the presence of complex relationships. Using a combination of forecasting methods is one of the ways to solve the problem of forecast verification, which is considered as a generalized assessment of their reliability, accuracy and validity.

Coincidence of forecasting results obtained various methods, is one of the testimonies of their reliability.

Although the choice and use of the method is the main step in the development of the forecast, they do not guarantee the final reliable results. The development procedure also involves other stages of activity, among which the following can be distinguished:

1. Predictive justification, i.e. formulation of goals, objectives, initial data on the structure of the object and the analyzed processes, main factors, relationships, development of preliminary hypotheses about the patterns of development, methods and organization of forecasting procedures.

2. Description of the external environment (forecast background), identification of external influences on the development of the facility and internal management, specification of development criteria and management parameters.

3. Development of a predictive model, i.e. determination of its structure and constituent elements, establishing relationships between them, which will allow us to trace the patterns of process change.

4. Develop, if possible, an alternative forecast based on the application of suitable forecasting methods.

5. Assessment of the reliability, accuracy and validity of the developed forecast, the consequences of its implementation. Comparison of forecast results with alternative forecast options.

7. Formulation of the task of developing a new version of the forecast, taking into account the analysis of the results obtained and the new information received.

From the standpoint of a general approach, a set of forecasting methods aimed at solving applied problems of analyzing the state of an object and predicting its development in the modern dynamic world can be systematized in the following classification (Figure 1).

According to the degree of formalization, forecasting methods are divided into intuitive and formalized. If the set of causal relationships is projected into the future, then the use of methods based on formalized thinking has advantages over intuitive methods.

Consider intuitive forecasting methods. They are used when the forecasting object is either too simple or so complex and unpredictable that it is practically impossible to analytically take into account the influence of many factors. The individual and collective expert assessments obtained in such cases are used as final forecasts or as initial data in complex forecasting systems.

Figure 1 - Classification of forecasting methods

Intuitive methods include:

1. Method "interview" - is an individual expert assessment, formulated impromptu without prior analysis of issues and therefore excluding ambiguous interpretation.

2. The analytical method is associated with the expression of an individual point of view of an expert in an article or analytical notes on the development trends of the phenomena and processes under study.

3. When constructing scenarios, a logical sequence of hypothetical events is established, connected with each other by cause-and-effect relationships; it is a model of the process, not just the end result.

4. The method of psycho-intellectual generation of ideas should be based on motivating creative motives, however, like all individual assessments, it is subjective. The final solution is determined by the analysis of expert data directly by the researcher.

5. The method of commissions represents the unification of the work of experts in the development of documents on the prospects for the development of the object of forecasting. Sociological surveys serve as an information base.

6. The "Delphi" method represents a series of successively implemented procedures aimed at preparing and substantiating the forecast.

7. The method of collective generation of ideas, called "brainstorming" or "brainstorming", differs from the "Delphi" method in the joint nature of obtaining a solution during a special meeting and subsequent analysis of its results. The method is recommended to be used in critical situations, characterized by the absence of real, fairly obvious options for the development of processes in the future.

8. If "brainstorming" is primarily aimed at collecting new ideas, then the method of controlled idea generation is a method of exchanging opinions, as a result of which it is supposed to reach an agreement between experts.

9. The synoptic method is a summary, overview approach to the analysis of the object and writing separate scenarios for various areas followed by their merging by iteration.

Formalized methods are divided by general principle actions into four groups: extrapolation (statistical), system-structural, associative and advanced information methods.

In the practice of forecasting economic processes, statistical methods have been predominant, at least until recently. This is mainly due to the fact that statistical methods are based on the apparatus of analysis, the development and practice of which have a fairly long history.

Let's consider extrapolation methods, which are one of the most common forecasting methods.

Extrapolation is the extension to the future of trends observed in the past. The simplest and most well-known is the moving average method, which performs mechanical alignment of the time series. The essence of the method is to replace the actual levels of the series with calculated averages, in which fluctuations are canceled.

For short-term forecasting purposes, the exponential smoothing method can also be used. The average level of the series at the moment t is equal to the linear combination of the actual level for the same moment and the average level of past and current observations.

Trend extrapolation is possible if the dependence of the levels of the series on the time factor t is found.

A model of a stationary process that expresses the value of the indicator y t as a linear combination of a finite number of previous values of this indicator and an additive random component is called an autoregressive model.

The methods discussed above, with the exception of trend extrapolation, are adaptive, because the process of their implementation consists in calculating successive values of the predicted indicator in time, taking into account the degree of influence of previous levels.

The morphological method is able to solve three types of problems:

How much information about a limited range of phenomena can be obtained using this class of techniques?

What is the complete chain of effects following from a particular cause?

What are all the possible methods and techniques for solving this particular problem?

The answer to the second question is the construction of a goal tree based on graph theory. The answer to the third question is provided by exploratory forecasting.

Works on system analysis are distinguished by the fact that they always offer a methodology for conducting research, organizing the decision-making process, an attempt is made to identify the stages of research or decision-making and suggest approaches to the implementation of these stages in specific conditions.

The methods of normative technological forecasting include matrix approaches used to check the agreement with various horizontally acting factors. Two-dimensional matrices provide a quick method for assessing the priority of one or another of the proposed options. This principle corresponds to the widely used SWOT analysis method in management, i.e. taking into account the weak and strengths object, threats and advantages in the external environment.

From the point of view of methodology, matrix methods include methods and models of game theory. They are used in forecasting socio-economic processes in the analysis of situations that arise as a result of certain relationships between the system under study and other opposing systems.

Statistical modeling methods include regression equations that describe the relationship between time series of independent features and effective features. Predictive levels are calculated by substituting the predictive values of the trait-factors into the regression equation, which can be obtained, for example, on the basis of extrapolation.

A predictive tool that takes into account requirements systems approach to the object and its quantitative characteristics are econometric models. The area of their application is macroeconomic processes at the level of the national economy, its sectors and industries, the economy of the territories.

Functional-hierarchical modeling represents the coordination of a distant goal with the actions (functions) that must be taken to achieve it in the present and future. Metric goal trees are used as decision aids and are called decision trees in this case.

Network modeling is widely used in normative technology forecasting. The critical path method, which is based on the use of network diagrams that reflect the various stages of each part of the project, and analyzes them in order to choose the optimal path between the initial and final stages, has become most famous. The criterion is cost or time. Network modeling uses a goal tree as an auxiliary tool.

The simulation method is based on the idea of maximizing the use of all available information about the system. The goal is to analyze and predict the behavior of a complex system with many functions, not all of which are quantified. Simulation Found wide application in forecasting processes, the analysis of which is impossible on the basis of direct experiment.

The possibility of a systematic use of similarity in the development of various objects underlies the method of historical analogies. Historical analogy has always played some conscious or unconscious role in forecasting.

The group of advanced information methods refers to technological forecasting and is associated with monitoring the latest research, results and breakthroughs in various fields of knowledge and evaluating the accumulated achievements. The methods are based on the property of scientific and technical information to be ahead of the implementation of achievements in production. For such activities, there are great opportunities in connection with high level development of information technologies.

Chapter 2 2.1. The concept of a time series of Wolf numbers

The Wolf number is one of the important numerical characteristics of the Sun's sunspot activity. The index was introduced in 1848 by the Swiss astronomer Rudolf Wolf.

Wolf, with the help of his combined sunspot index, which was called the Wolf numbers, built their time series from 1700 to 1848 and after that it is constantly updated, and in the 20th century with daily data.

Back in 1843, the outstanding German astronomer Heinrich von Schwabe first determined the periodicity of sunspot cycles at 10 years. In 1852, this figure was corrected by Wolff as the arithmetic mean of their period of 11.1 years, although in reality the cycle varies from 8.5 to 14 years between adjacent lows and from 7.3 to 17 years between highs.

For many years, Rudolf Wolf (1816-1896) collected data on sunspot observations. He has collected and verified both published and unpublished information since the invention of the telescope. As a result, he received a series of data starting from 1610. At the same time, he introduced the concept of the "relative number" of spots, which is now called the Wolf number. This number (W) is calculated using the following formula:

where f is the number of sunspots visible on the Sun;

g is the number of groups of these spots;

k is a normalization coefficient, depends on the observer and on the astronomical instrument used by him, it allows you to compare observations made under different conditions.

Wolf numbers usually range from 0 to 10 in years of minimum, and from 50 to 100 in years of maximum.

The so-defined Wolf number is called the relative Wolf number, since there is no concept of a universal, absolutely exact number of spots and their groups. Wolf numbers obtained from different observations are first compared with each other (using series of parallel observations), in order to then derive a normalizing conversion factor.

The meaning of the coefficient 10 when calculating the Wolf number is that the significance of the characteristic g (the number of groups of spots) is assumed to be 10 times greater than the significance of the characteristic f (the number of single spots). This coefficient was introduced by Wolf himself and is rather arbitrary.

But since it is more convenient to write down only the values of the W number, and not its components, in order to be able to compare the Wolf numbers over long time intervals, modern astronomers continue to use this particular weighting factor of 10. However, astronomers have long understood that the choice coefficient 10 is arbitrary, and they tried to find other numerical characteristics of solar activity that would not contain such arbitrary parameters. One of these characteristics is undoubtedly the total area S of sunspots visible on the Sun. Other characteristics of this kind have been proposed, but only one of them, the area S, suffices for us here.

Astronomers' studies have shown that if you build series of the values of W and S, then there is a fairly strong correlation between them. Mathematically, for this, the cross-correlation coefficient was calculated, which has already been mentioned above (in the particular case of one time series, when autocorrelation is calculated - the correlation of the series with itself).

It turned out that this coefficient is always very close to 1, which indicates a fairly close relationship between these two values. In fact, it turned out that the areas of the spots are approximately proportional to the Wolf number. Substantially, this fact means that the information available in a number of values of the Wolf number can be largely extracted from a number of values of the area of spots (and vice versa). Thus, astronomers have shown that they have at their disposal a correctly defined numerical characteristic solar activity and established its connection with a widespread characteristic - the Wolf number. As for the Wolf number, its correlation with many phenomena on Earth was clearly demonstrated in the works of A.L. Chizhevsky.

2.2. Social prediction based on Wolf numbers

If we compare the graphic representation of the identified historiometric cycles and subcycles with the curves of spot formation, we can find the following pattern: cycles and subcycles, as a rule, begin in the years of extremums of the spot of educational activity or in the years adjacent to them.

At the same time, depending on whether the maximum or minimum of solar activity corresponded to a critical year, success or failure depended on the forces that entered the historical arena. Suffice it to note the following years and events:

1789 - the year of the beginning of the great French bourgeois revolution;

1905, 1917 - the years of Russian revolutions;

1928 - the year of the collapse of the Western financial system;

1937-1938, 1947-1949 - repressions of the Stalinist regime;

1986 - Chernobyl disaster;

1991 - the collapse of the Union, etc.

Figure 1 shows the observations of the relative Wolf numbers, averaged over a month, for the period from 1900 to 1924;

Rice. 1. Distribution of Wolf numbers in time

Table 1 - Analysis of the relationship between Wolf numbers and social phenomena

	Wolf number
	(average annual)	Revolution, coming to power of the Bolsheviks
1937-1938		Repressions of the Stalinist regime
March 1947		The "Truman Doctrine" was proclaimed, aimed at fighting the forces of socialism, the communist ministers were eliminated from the Belgian government
May 1947	(monthly average)	The world for the first time stood on the threshold nuclear war; Removed communist ministers from the governments of Italy and France and banned the Communist Party of Brazil.
late October - early November 1956		Israeli-Arab war started which did not completely subside even after 42 years; The population of Hungary began to protest against the existing regime authorities and Nikita Khrushchev, with the consent of the members of the Presidium of the Central Committee of the CPSU, ordered the immediate suppression of the uprising in Budapest
May 1968	(monthly average)	in Paris, in support of the demands of the students, mass unrest began with erecting barricades
August 1968		Suppression of the "Prague Spring" by Soviet tanks
December 1979		Start of the war in Afghanistan
	(average annual)	The Armenian-Azerbaijani war for Karabakh began; earthquake in Armenia
		Start of the war in Yugoslavia
		August coup, the beginning of the collapse of the USSR

Thus, catastrophic socio-political events in the reference years of the maximum increase in solar activity moved geographically depending on the endogenous socio-psychological readiness of societies in certain areas of the Earth to participate in bifurcation events at the peak of solar activity.

At the same time, the mechanism of influence of an increase in solar activity on drastic changes in the socio-psychological environment in one or another region of the Earth is very similar to the mechanisms that work in its depths, causing earthquakes.

The method of analyzing the influence of the Sun's sunspot activity on the social activity of society is retrospective and unacceptable for long-term forecasting, since the state of the Sun can only be judged on the basis of actual data at each individual moment of time.

Conclusion

Socio-economic forecasting methods are a set of techniques and ways of thinking that allow, based on the analysis of retrospective data, exogenous (external) and endogenous (internal) relations of the object of forecasting, as well as their measurements within the framework of the phenomenon or process under consideration, to derive judgments of a certain reliability regarding it ( object) future development.

Intuitive forecasting methods are used in cases where it is impossible to take into account the influence of many factors due to the insignificant complexity of the forecasting object. In this case, expert estimates are used. At the same time, individual and collective expert assessments are distinguished.

The group of search methods includes subgroups: extrapolation and modeling, mapping, scripting, forecasting by analogy. The first subgroup includes methods: least squares, exponential smoothing, moving averages. To the second - structural, network and matrix modeling.

Normative forecasting methods consist in determining the necessary and sufficient means to achieve the possible state of the object under study and answer the question: “what will happen?”, “what do we want to see?”, “by what means to achieve this?”. Normative methods include a tree of goals, morphological models, block diagrams.

In the second part of the work, a method for analyzing the influence of the sun's sunspot activity on the social activity of society is considered. The influence of the increase in solar activity on drastic changes in the socio-psychological environment in one or another region of the Earth has been established.

This one has a retrospective character and is unacceptable for long-term forecasting, since the state of the Sun can only be judged by actual data at each individual moment in time.

Literature

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15. http://www.yax.su/finlab/ir170/21/index.shtml

There are three main specific methods of forecasting: extrapolation, modeling, expertise.

The classification of forecasting into extrapolation, modeling and expertise is rather conditional, since predictive models involve extrapolation and expert assessments, the latter are the results of extrapolation and modeling, etc. In the development of forecasts, methods of analogy, deduction, induction, various statistical methods, economic , sociological, etc.

1. Extrapolation method.

This method was one of the historically first methods that became widely used in social forecasting. Extrapolation is the distribution of conclusions made in the study of one part of a phenomenon (process) to another part, including the unobservable. In the social field, it is a way of predicting future events and states, based on the assumption that some trends that have manifested themselves in the past and in the present will continue.

Extrapolation example: a series of numbers 1, 4, 9, 16 suggests that the next number will be 25, since the beginning of the series is the squares of the numbers 1, 2, 3, 4. We extrapolated the found principle to the unwritten part of the series.

Extrapolation is widely used in demography when calculating the future size of the population, its sex and age and family structures, etc. Using this method, the future rejuvenation or aging of the population can be calculated, the characteristics of fertility, mortality, marriage rates are given in periods that are several years away from the present. decades.

With the help of computer programs (Excel, etc.), you can post-
dig extrapolation in the form of a graph in accordance with the available formulas.

However, in social forecasting, the possibilities of extrapolation as a forecasting method are somewhat limited. This is due to a number of reasons that are related to the fact that social processes develop over time. This limits the possibilities of their accurate modeling. So, up to a certain point, the process can slowly increase, and then a period of rapid development begins, which ends with a saturation stage. After that, the process stabilizes again. If such features of the course of social processes are not taken into account, then the application of the extrapolation method can lead to an error.

2. Modeling.

Modeling is a method of studying objects of knowledge on their analogues (models) - real or mental.

An analogue of an object can be, for example, its layout (reduced, proportionate or enlarged), drawing, diagram, etc. AT social sphere mental models are used more often. Working with models allows you to transfer experimentation from the real social object to its mentally constructed duplicate and avoid the risk of an unsuccessful, all the more dangerous for people management decision. The main feature of a mental model is that it can be subject to any kind of tests, which practically consist in changing the parameters of itself and the environment in which it (as an analogue of a real object) exists. This is the great advantage of the model. It can also act as a model, a kind of ideal type, an approximation to which may be desirable for the creators of the project.

3. Expertise.

Expertise is a special method of forecasting. In social design, it is used not only to solve problems of predictive justification, but also wherever it is necessary to deal with issues with a low level of certainty of the parameters to be studied.

Expertise in the context of artificial intelligence research is interpreted as resolution of hard-to-formalizable(or poorly formalized) tasks. Arose in connection with the problems of programming, this understanding of expertise has acquired a system-wide character. It is the difficulty of formalizing a certain task that makes other methods of its study ineffective, except for expertise. As a way to describe the problem by formal means is found, the role of accurate measurements and calculations increases and, on the contrary, the effectiveness of expert assessments decreases.

So, expertise is a study of a problem that is difficult to formalize, which is carried out by forming an opinion (preparing a conclusion) of a specialist who is able to make up for the lack or non-systematic information on the issue under study with his knowledge, intuition, experience in solving similar problems and relying on "common sense".

A social project is subject to expertise throughout its development and implementation.

At the stage of concept development, many indicators are set by experts to measure the effectiveness of the project.

The viability assessment of a project relies heavily on expert judgement, both for the project and for social environment into which it is embedded.

Diagnostic and predictive research in the social field is impossible without the use of expert methods.

When considering the prepared text of the project by the competition commissions, investors, state authorities and local governments, other organizations that make management decisions on the project, an examination is also carried out.

The project is evaluated by experts within the framework of current control over its implementation.

Finally, the completion of the project, the establishment of whether it was possible to implement it in accordance with the plan, also involves an examination.

If we proceed from the essence of the concepts developed by these authors, then management appears as a conscious social process, based on reliable knowledge of the systematic impact of the subject of management (managed subsystem) on a social object (managed subsystem) through decision-making, planning, organization and control necessary to ensure to ensure the effective functioning and development of the social system (organization), the achievement of its set goal

Modern management is guided by several fundamental principles:

1. The principle of organic interdependence and integrity of the subject and object of management. Management as a process of purposeful and organizing influence of the subject (control subsystem) on the object (team, organization, technical system etc.) should form a single integrated system, which has one goal, connection with the external environment, feedback from the goal to the action aimed at achieving it.

2. The principle of state legality of the management system of an organization, firm, institution. Its essence is as follows: the organizational and legal form of the company must meet the requirements and norms of state legislation.

3. The principle of ensuring the internal legal regulation of the creation, functioning and development of the organization. All activities of the organization must be carried out in accordance with the requirements of the internal charter (constituent agreement), the content of which must comply with the laws of the country.

4. The principle of hiring a manager. In accordance with this requirement, the issue of appointing or choosing a leader is decided. This is determined by the content of the activities, goals and objectives of the leader.

5. The principle of unity of specialization and unification of management processes. Specialization increases its effectiveness. However, this is not always possible due to low repeatability. management processes. Therefore, specialization should be supplemented by the universalization of management, the development of common methods.

6. The principle of multivariate management decisions. This principle is dictated by the need to choose one rational and effective solution of the many possible, including alternative, solutions for the performance of the system's functions and the achievement of its goal.

7. The principle of ensuring the stability of the system in relation to the external environment.

The sustainability and stability of the management system is determined by the quality strategic management and operational regulation, leading to better adaptability of the system (organization) to changes in the external environment, including unfavorable ones.

8. The principle of mobility of the management process. Along with sustainability, management must be mobile, i.e. adapt quickly and without much difficulty to changes in the internal environment of the organization (firm) and external environment- consumers of goods and services, market conditions, to scientific and technical changes.

9. The principle of control automation. The higher the level of management automation, the higher the quality of the management process and the lower the costs. The condition for automation of management is the development of unification and standardization of elements of the management system, production, specialization of the functions performed.

10. The principle of unity of leadership. The essence of this principle can be expressed as follows: in one organization, whether industrial enterprise, a trading company, a scientific institution, there must be one manager and one program for a set of operations pursuing the same goal. The famous French specialist in the field of management theory, Henri Fayol, noted that the point is not a lack or excess of principles, but that one must be able to operate with them.

INTRODUCTION

When developing forecasts, specialists often encounter difficulties associated with the lack of certainty in the terminology of this relatively new area of scientific research.

The future is sought to be foreseen, predicted, anticipated, foreseen, predicted, etc. But the future can also be planned, programmed, designed. In relation to the future, you can set goals and make decisions. Sometimes some of these concepts are used as synonyms, sometimes a different meaning is put into each of them. This situation greatly complicates the development of prognosis and gives rise to fruitless discussions on issues of terminology.

In 1975, the Committee for Scientific and Technical Terminology of the USSR Academy of Sciences prepared a draft terminology for the general concepts of forecasting, as well as the object and apparatus of forecasting. The draft was circulated for wide discussion in organizations involved in the problems of forecasting, finalized taking into account the comments and published in 1978 in the 92nd edition of the collections of terms recommended for use in scientific and technical literature, information, educational process, standards and documentation. In this section, an attempt is made to bring into a system some of the terms (some of them are beyond the scope of the specified dictionary), which denote the initial concepts of prognostication and without which it is difficult to perceive the subsequent presentation (the dictionary is given in the Appendix).

Foresight and forecasting. It seems necessary to introduce a general concept that unites all varieties of obtaining information about the future - foresight, which is divided into scientific and non-scientific (intuitive, everyday, religious, etc.). Scientific foresight is based on knowledge of the laws governing the development of nature, society, and thought; the intuitive is based on the premonitions of a person, the ordinary is based on the so-called worldly experience, related analogies, signs, etc .; religious - on the belief in supernatural forces that predetermine the future. There are a lot of superstitions about this.

Sometimes the concept of foresight refers to information not only about the future, but also about the present, and even about the past. This happens when still unknown, unknown phenomena of the past and present are approached in order to obtain scientific knowledge about them as if they relate to the future. Examples include estimates of mineral deposits (presentist foresight), mental reconstruction of ancient sites using the tools of scientific foresight (reconstructive foresight), estimating hindsight from the present to the past or from less distant to more distant past (reverse foresight), estimating hindsight from past to present or from a more distant to a less distant past, in particular - for testing methods of foresight (simulation foresight).

Foresight affects two interrelated sets of forms of its concretization: relating to the category of foresight itself - predictive (descriptive, or descriptive) and associated with it, relating to the category of management - pre-indicative (prescriptive, or prescriptive). Prediction implies a description of possible or desirable prospects, states, solutions to the problems of the future. Foretelling is connected with the actual solution of these problems, with the use of information about the future for the purposeful activity of the individual and society. Prediction results in the forms of premonition, anticipation, foresight, forecasting. Premonition (simple anticipation) contains information about the future at the level of intuition - the subconscious. Sometimes this concept is extended to the entire area of the simplest advanced reflection as a property of any organism. Foresight (complex anticipation) carries information about the future based on life experience, more or less correct guesses about the future, not based on special scientific research. Sometimes this concept is extended to the entire area of complex advanced reflection, which is a property of the highest form of the movement of matter - thinking. Finally, forecasting (which is often used in the previous meanings) must mean, in this approach, a special Scientific research, the subject of which are the prospects for the development of the phenomenon.

Preindication appears in the forms of goal-setting, planning, programming, design, and current management decisions. Goal-setting is the establishment of an ideally expected result of an activity. Planning is a projection into the future of human activity in order to achieve a predetermined goal with certain means, the transformation of information about the future into directives for purposeful activity. Programming in this series of concepts means establishing the main provisions, which are then deployed in planning, or the sequence of specific measures for the implementation of plans. Design is the creation of specific images of the future, specific details of the developed programs. Management as a whole, as it were, integrates the four listed concepts, since each of them is based on the same element - a decision. But decisions in the field of management do not necessarily have a planned, program, project character. Many of them (the so-called organizational, as well as actually managerial) are, as it were, the last step in the concretization of management.

These terms can also be defined as the processes of developing forecasts, goals, plans, programs, projects, and organizational decisions. From this point of view, a forecast is defined as a probabilistic scientifically based judgment about the prospects, possible states of a particular phenomenon in the future and (or) about alternative ways and timing of their implementation. The goal is a decision regarding the intended result of the activity being undertaken. Plan - a decision on a system of measures that provides for the order, sequence, timing and means of their implementation. A program is a decision regarding a set of measures necessary for the implementation of scientific, technical, social, socio-economic and other problems or some of their aspects. The program can be a pre-plan decision, as well as specify a certain aspect of the plan. A project is a decision regarding a specific activity, structure, etc., necessary for the implementation of one or another aspect of the program. Finally, the actual decision in this series of concepts is an ideally assumed action to achieve the goal.

Religious foresight has its own forms of concretization. So, “prediction” takes the form of “revelation”, divination (prophecy), fortune-telling, and “foretelling” takes the form of “predestination”, sorcery, spells, requests for prayer, etc. But all this (as well as forms of concretization of intuitive and everyday foresight ) is a special topic.

It is important to emphasize that prediction and prediction are closely related. Without taking this connection into account, it is impossible to understand the essence of forecasting, its actual relationship with management. The volitional principle can prevail in pre-instruction, and then the corresponding goals, plans, programs, projects, decisions in general turn out to be voluntaristic, subjectivistic, arbitrary (with an increased risk of non-optimality, failure). In this regard, it is desirable to predominate in them an objective, research principle, so that they are scientifically sound, with an increased level of expected effectiveness of decisions made.

The most important methods of scientific substantiation of predictions - description (analysis), explanation (diagnosis) and prediction (forecast) - constitute the three main functions of each scientific discipline. The forecast is not only a tool for such justification. However, its practical significance is reduced precisely to the possibility of increasing the efficiency of decisions made with its help. It is only because of this that forecasting has taken on unprecedented proportions in recent decades and has begun to play an important role in management processes.

Forecasting is not limited to trying to predict the details of the future (although in some cases this is essential). The forecaster proceeds from the dialectical determination of the phenomena of the future, from the fact that necessity makes its way through chances, that a probabilistic approach is needed to the phenomena of the future, taking into account a wide range of possible options. Only with this approach, forecasting can be effectively used to select the most probable or most desirable, optimal option when justifying a goal, plan, program, project, or decision in general.

Forecasts should precede plans, contain an assessment of the progress, consequences of the implementation (or failure to implement) plans, cover everything that cannot be planned, resolved. They can cover, in principle, any period of time. Forecast and plan differ in the way they handle information about the future. A probabilistic description of what is possible or desirable is a prediction. A directive decision regarding measures to achieve the possible, desirable is a plan. Forecast and plan can be developed independently of each other. But in order for the plan to be effective, optimal, it must be preceded by a forecast, as continuous as possible, which allows scientifically substantiating this and subsequent plans.

TYPOLOGY OF FORECASTS

Typology of forecasts can be built according to various criteria depending on the goals, objectives, objects, subjects, problems, nature, lead time, methods, organization of forecasting, etc. The problem-target criterion is fundamental: what is the forecast for? Accordingly, two types of forecasts are distinguished: exploratory (they were previously called research, survey, trend, genetic, etc.) and normative (they were called program, target).

Search forecast- determination of possible states of the phenomenon in the future. This refers to the conditional continuation into the future of the trends in the development of the phenomenon under study in the past and present, abstracting from possible solutions, actions on the basis of which can radically change trends, cause in some cases the self-fulfillment or self-destruction of the forecast. This prediction answers the question: What is most likely to happen if current trends continue?

Normative forecast- definition of ways and terms of achievement of possible states of the phenomenon accepted as the purpose. This refers to predicting the achievement of desired states on the basis of predetermined norms, ideals, incentives, and goals. This prediction answers the question: what are the ways to achieve what you want?

The search forecast is built on a certain scale (field, spectrum) of possibilities, on which the degree of probability of the predicted phenomenon is then established. With normative forecasting, the same probability distribution occurs, but in the reverse order: from a given state to observed trends. Normative forecasting is in some respects very similar to normative planning, programming, or project development. But the latter imply a directive establishment of measures for the implementation of certain norms, while the former is a stochastic (probabilistic) description of possible, alternative ways to achieve these norms.

Normative forecasting not only does not exclude normative developments in the field of management, but is also their prerequisite, helping to develop recommendations to increase the level of objectivity and, consequently, the effectiveness of decisions. This circumstance prompted to identify the specifics of forecasts serving, respectively, goal-setting, planning, programming, design, and directly the organization of management. As a result, according to the criterion of correlation with various forms of concretization of management, some experts distinguish a number of subtypes of forecasts (exploratory and normative).

Target Forecast actually desired states answers the question: what is desirable and why? In this case, on a certain scale (field, spectrum) the possibilities of a purely evaluative function are built, i.e. preference distribution functions: undesirable - less desirable - more desirable - most desirable - optimal (with a compromise on several criteria). Orientation - assistance in optimizing the goal-setting process.

Planned forecast(plan-forecast) of the progress (or non-fulfillment) of plans is essentially the development of search and regulatory forecast information for the selection of the most appropriate planning standards, tasks, directives with the identification of undesirable alternatives to be eliminated and with a thorough clarification of the direct and remote, indirect consequences of the adopted planned decisions. This prediction answers the question: how, in what direction should planning be oriented in order to more effectively achieve the set goals?

Program forecast possible ways, measures and conditions for achieving the expected desired state of the predicted phenomenon answers the question: What exactly is needed to achieve what you want? To answer this question, both search and normative predictive developments are important. The former identify the problems that need to be solved in order to implement the program, the latter determine the conditions for implementation. Program forecasting should formulate a hypothesis about the possible mutual influence of various factors, indicate the hypothetical timing and sequence of achieving intermediate goals on the way to the main one. Thus, as it were, the selection of possibilities for the development of the object of study, begun by planned forecasting, is completed.

Project forecast specific images of this or that phenomenon in the future, under the assumption of a number of conditions that are still missing, answers the question: how (specifically) is this possible, what might it look like? A combination of search and regulatory developments is also important here. Project forecasts (they are also called forecast projects, design forecasts, etc.) are designed to help select the best options for long-term design, on the basis of which real, current design should then be deployed.

Organizational forecast current decisions (in relation to the sphere of management) to achieve the intended desired state of the phenomenon, the set goals answers the question: in what direction should decisions be oriented in order to achieve the goal? Comparison of the results of search and regulatory developments should cover the entire range of organizational measures, thereby increasing the overall level of management.

Social Methods social forecasting: a brief description of. search engine social forecasting Methodological failure of orientation forecasting in the social sciences...

social forecasting - an interdisciplinary set of studies related to the definition of options for the development of social processes and the choice of the most appropriate ones that can ensure their implementation.

Types of social forecasts

Prediction method: predictive extrapolation method of expert assessments, "brainstorming", Delphi method, etc.

social forecasting- foresight, trends and prospects for the possible development of the social system, the forecast is general and abstract:

Predictive extrapolation method;

Method of expert assessments;

Collective expertise, brain stage;

Simulation method;

Method of mathematical modeling.

Word " forecasting " comes from a Greek word meaning foresight or divination. However, social forecasting is not one of the types of foresight, but the next stage, which is associated with process management.

AT himself general sense forecasting means development of a forecast in the form of formulating a probabilistic judgment about the state of a phenomenon in the future.

In a narrow sense forecasting means a special scientific study of the prospects for the development of a phenomenon, mainly with quantitative estimates and indicating more or less certain periods of change in this phenomenon.

The forecast does not provide solutions to the problems of the future. Its task is to contribute to the scientific substantiation of development plans and programs. Forecasting characterizes a possible set of necessary ways and means of implementing the planned program of action.

Under the forecast should be borne in mind a probabilistic statement about the future with a relatively high degree of certainty. Its difference from foresight lies in the fact that the latter is interpreted as an improbable statement about the future, based on absolute certainty, or (another approach) is a logically constructed model of a possible future with an as yet undetermined level of certainty. It is easy to see that the degree of reliability of statements about the future is used as the basis for the distinction between terms. At the same time, it is obvious that forecasting proceeds from the ambiguity of development.

The forecast has a specific character and is necessarily associated with certain quantitative estimates. In accordance with this, the author attributes the expected number of crimes to the following calendar year to the category of forecasts, and the early release of a prisoner under certain conditions - to the category of predictions.

It can be concluded that prediction is qualitative assessments future, and the forecast - quantitative estimates of the future.

social forecasting- identification of development options and selection of the most acceptable, optimal based on resources, time and social forces capable of ensuring their implementation. Social forecasting is the work with alternatives, a deep analysis of the degree of probability and the multivariance of possible solutions.

At the same time, it is necessary to note the distinctive, specific features of social forecasting. They can be identified as follows.

Firstly, the formulation of the goal here is relatively general and abstract: it allows for a high degree of probability. The purpose of forecasting is based on the analysis of the state and behavior of the system in the past and the study of possible trends in the change of factors affecting the system under consideration, to correctly determine the probabilistic quantitative and qualitative parameters of its development in the future, to reveal the options for the situation in which the system will find itself.

Secondly, social forecasting does not have a directive character.

In conclusion, we can say that the qualitative difference between a variant forecast and a specific plan is that the forecast provides information to justify the decision and choose planning methods. It indicates the possibility of one or another development path in the future, and the plan expresses the decision on which of the possibilities the society will implement.

There is a noticeable difference between forecasting within the natural and technical sciences, on the one hand, and within the social sciences, on the other. The weather forecast, for example, can be set with a high degree of probability. But at the same time, it cannot be canceled by a managerial decision. Within small limits, a person can consciously change the state of the weather (for example, it is possible to clear the sky from clouds in connection with a major public holiday or stimulate avalanches in the mountains), but these are very rare cases of counteraction to the forecast. Basically, a person has to adapt his actions to the weather (take an umbrella if rain is expected; put on warm clothes if it is cold, etc.).

The specificity of social forecasting lies in the fact that the prediction of social phenomena and processes and their management are closely related. Having predicted an undesirable social process, we can stop it or modify it in such a way that it does not show its negative qualities. Having predicted a positive process, we can actively contribute to its development, contribute to its expansion in the territory of action, coverage of people, duration of manifestation, etc.

Social innovation has specific features among other innovations: if in the scientific, technical, economic spheres the meaning of innovation is to achieve greater efficiency, then in the social sphere, establishing efficiency is problematic. How is this determined?

1. In the social sphere, the improvement of the position of some people can create tension (sometimes only psychological) for others. Social innovation is evaluated through the prism of the value-normative system.

2. Successful solution of some social problems may give rise to other problems or turn out to be a success not in the sense in which the task was understood.

Exist three main specific forecasting method: extrapolation, modeling, expertise.

extrapolation method.

This method was one of the historically first methods that became widely used in social forecasting. Extrapolation - this is the extension of the conclusions made in the study of one part of a phenomenon (process) to another part, including the unobservable. In the social field, it is a way of predicting future events and states, based on the assumption that some trends that have manifested themselves in the past and in the present will continue.

With the help of computer programs (Exel, etc.), you can post-
dig extrapolation in the form of a graph in accordance with the available formulas.

2. Modeling.Modeling is a method of studying objects of knowledge on their analogues (models) - real or mental.

An analogue of an object can be, for example, its layout (reduced, proportionate or enlarged), drawing, diagram, etc. In the social sphere, mental models are more often used. Working with models allows you to transfer experimentation from a real social object to its mentally constructed duplicate and avoid the risk of an unsuccessful, all the more dangerous for people, management decision. The main feature of a mental model is that it can be subject to any kind of tests, which practically consist in changing the parameters of itself and the environment in which it (as an analogue of a real object) exists. This is the great advantage of the model. It can also act as a model, a kind of ideal type, an approximation to which may be desirable for the creators of the project.

In social design, it is more accurate to say that a model created on the basis of a plan and preliminary information makes it possible to identify, clarify and limit the goals of the project being developed.

At the same time, the disadvantage of the model is its simplification. Certain properties and characteristics of a real object in it are coarsened or not taken into account at all as insignificant. If this were not done, the work with the model would be extremely complicated, and the model itself would not contain dense, compact information about the object. And yet here lie possible mistakes modeling applications to social engineering and forecasting.

“The idea that the model can only be mathematical, rooted in school years, is deeply mistaken. The model can also be formulated in natural language.”

This circumstance is important to take into account in social design. Modeling techniques can facilitate design tasks and make the project visible. Many, while talking, hold a sheet of paper in front of them and, in the course of presenting their point of view, fix the main points, indicate the links between them with arrows and other signs, etc. This is one of the common forms visualization, widely used in modeling. Visualization is able to more clearly reveal the essence of the problem and clearly indicate in which directions it can be solved and where to expect success and where failure.

The value of non-mathematical modeling for social design is very high. The model allows not only to develop an effective managerial decision, but simulate conflict situations, probable when making a decision, and ways to reach agreement.

In fact, any kind of business games are simulations.

Analysis and modeling social systems have recently been expanded into an autonomous sociological discipline with original mathematical software.

3. Expertise. Expertise is a special method of forecasting. In social design, it is used not only to solve problems of predictive justification, but also wherever it is necessary to deal with issues with a low level of certainty of the parameters to be studied.

Methods of social forecasting.

Types of social forecasts

Methods of social forecasting

The concept and types of social forecasting

Topic 2. Sociological monitoring of security

social forecasting is a special study on the likely prospects for the development of a social facility. Moreover, the object can be social phenomenon, process, and the social stratum, and the social state of the individual.

The purpose of social forecasting is the preparation of scientifically based proposals on the directions in which the development of a social object is desirable. In the course of scientific forecasting, two main tasks are solved:

The goal of the probable development of the object is determined and motivated;

The means and ways of achieving this goal are determined.

Types of social forecasting: socio-economic, legal, socio-political, socio-culturological, sociological, etc.

Social Prediction Functions:

1. orientation involves optimizing the choice of socially significant goals and means of achieving them

2. normative means identifying major trends social development,

3. precautionary involves the identification and description of possible negative consequences in the trends of probable development.

General scientific: analysis, synthesis, extrapolation - extension of conclusions regarding one part of a phenomenon to another part, to the phenomenon as a whole for the future, interpolation - restoring the value of a function at an intermediate point from its known values \u200b\u200bat neighboring points, induction, deduction, analogies, hypotheses, experimentation and modeling - the transfer of research activities to another object, acting as a substitute for the object under study.

interscientific, focused on the collective opinion, the opinion of the majority of experts :

1. brainstorming method is a collective expert assessment of the predicted event. It involves a joint discussion of the problem by specialists from different research areas, scientific schools and is focused on convergence of expert positions.

2. method "Delphi" distinguishes the anonymity of the work of experts and the written form of assessments.

To private scientific methods social forecasting usually include a survey of experts, testing, etc.

I. Forecasts differ based on the target criterion:

1. Search forecast, the content of which is to determine the possible states of the forecasting object in the future. Such a forecast answers the question: what is most likely to happen if the current trends continue?

2. Normative forecast, the content of which is to determine the ways and conditions for achieving possible states (taken as given) of the object of forecasting in the future. This forecast answers the question: what are the ways to achieve the desired result?

3. Comprehensive forecast, containing elements of search and normative forecasts.

II. By lead time There are the following types of forecasts:

Operational forecast with a lead time of up to 1 month;

Short-term forecast with a lead period of 1 month to 1 year;

Medium-term forecast with a lead time of 1 to 5 years;

Long-term forecast with a lead time of 5 to 15 years;

Long-range forecast with a lead time of more than 15 years.

III. By scale of forecasting allocate:

World Forecasts;

State forecasts;

Structural (intersectoral and interregional) forecasts;

Forecasts for the development of individual complexes of industry, economy, culture;

Industry forecasts;

Regional forecasts;

IV. By object of study differ:

-natural science predictions(meteorological, hydrological, geological, biological, cosmological

-scientific and technical forecasts, which cover the prospects for the development of scientific and technological progress;

-social predictions, which cover various spheres of human activity and relationships between them.

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